Sporting – Bodø/Glimt

Just a few months ago it would have been completely unthinkable. Now it is reality. Bodø/Glimt is on the verge of what could be the greatest achievement in Norwegian club football ever.

After a sensational 3–0 win at Aspmyra against Portuguese Sporting, Kjetil Knutsen's team travels to Lisbon with a result that has sent shockwaves through Europe. Victories against teams like Manchester City, Atlético Madrid and Inter Milan have already written Glimt into European football history and now they are just one game away from a place in the quarter-finals of the Champions League.

Should Bodø/Glimt manage to complete the job at Estádio José Alvalade, it would not only be historic – it would also trigger enormous financial gains. A quarter-final spot means a new 147 million kroner into the club's coffers, in addition to the approximately 125 million kroner Glimt already secured after the triumph against Inter earlier in the tournament.

The number crunchers at Football Meets Data also believe that Glimt is in a very strong position. Before the first match, Bodø's quarter-final chances were rated at 37 percent. After the 3–0 win at Aspmyra, they have increased to a whopping 88 percent.

Still, no one expects a quiet evening in Lisbon.

Sporting – Must create a volcano in Lisbon

The starting point means that Sporting has almost no choice in this return match. After the 0–3 loss at Aspmyra, the Portuguese team will have to go offensive from the start if they are to have a realistic chance of turning the match around.

This also means that the match will probably be quite predictable. Sporting will try to take control of the ball and press high up the pitch, especially in the opening of the match where an early goal could give new hope in the match. At the same time, we know that the Portuguese are strong at home, and with over 50,000 spectators at Estádio José Alvalade, they will try to create a lot of pressure on the Glimt goal.

Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that the task may be more difficult than many think. Bodø/Glimt have shown on several occasions that they handle the pressure from big European teams very well. Manchester City, Atlético Madrid and Inter Milan all managed to create periods of great pressure against Glimt – but none of them managed to score more than one goal in the matches at Aspmyra, Spain or Italy.

For Sporting, this means that they not only have to dominate the match – they also have to be able to break down a Glimt team that has proven to be both disciplined and very difficult to score many goals against.

Bodø/Glimt – Have already shown that they can withstand the biggest

But this is precisely where Bodø/Glimt has shown its greatest strength in recent seasons.

Time and time again they have faced Europe's best teams and time and time again they have shown that they cannot be broken.

Manchester City only managed to score one goal at Aspmyra in a match that ended 3–1 to Glimt. Atlético Madrid were beaten 2–1 at home in Bodø, while Inter Milan also only managed one goal as they lost 3–1 at Aspmyra. Even in the return match against Inter in Italy, the Italians did not manage more than one goal in a match that ended 1–2.

The common denominator in all these matches is clear: Even against Europe's biggest clubs, Glimt rarely concedes many goals.

Kjetil Knutsen's team is extremely well organised defensively, while always having the threat of counterattacking. Players like Jens Petter Hauge, Kasper Høgh and Sondre Brunstad Fet give Glimt the opportunity to threaten even when they are low down the pitch.

With a 3–0 lead from the first match, there is also little doubt about what game plan Glimt will come up with in Lisbon. Control, discipline and patience will be the keywords.

Conclusion – Sporting must chase, Glimt can control

Everything is set for a match where Sporting must take the initiative.

The Portuguese need at least three goals to force extra time, while Bodø/Glimt can afford to be more pragmatic. This means that the home team must take risks, while Glimt can focus on maintaining the structure and betting on the result.

History from previous matches against top European teams also shows that Bodø/Glimt rarely let their opponents score many goals against them.

Therefore, much points to a match where Sporting will dominate the ball and try to press, but where Glimt at the same time manages to keep the Portuguese at bay.

Bet suggestions

Champions League 18:45 Sporting – Bodø/Glimt: Sporting under 2.5 goals (1.73)