Senegal – Morocco

This is not just a big African match – it is also a small taste of what awaits us in the World Cup qualifiers. Senegal is in a group with Norway, and this is a team we can in no way take lightly. We can clearly see that in this championship. They are physically strong, tactically disciplined and comfortable in the biggest matches. Now they are in another final, against a Morocco that is playing on home soil and has built the entire tournament around control and structure.

Everything is set for a finale where no one will give anything away for free.

Senegal – power, pace and pressure

Senegal have been through the tournament with a calmness that only truly experienced teams possess. They win their matches without having to chase chaos, but at the same time with a clear offensive expression. They press high at times, move the team forward together and are good at getting plays into the opponent's box.

The last few matches have also shown a clear pattern: Senegal consistently produce corner kicks. In the last three matches, they have 20 corners in total. It is not about coincidence, but about a team that is constantly in position around the penalty area, either through crosses, blocked shots or attacks that force the opponent back.

Morocco – host nation with control needs

Morocco have built the entire tournament on structure and balance. They have been extremely difficult to break down, and the semi-final – which went 120 minutes without a goal – says a lot about how they want to play these games. At home, they will have the crowd behind them, but also enormous pressure on their shoulders.

This is not a team that opens up early in a final. They will rather let the game settle, try to keep it at a manageable pace and minimize risk.

The match picture – a final that is built, not exploded

This smacks of a positional war. Both teams know what's at stake, and both have shown throughout the tournament that they are comfortable with close games. That doesn't mean it will be passive, but that much of the game will take place in the space between confidence and ambition.

Senegal will have periods of pressure. They are too physical and direct to be kept completely at bay. Morocco will respond with compact defense and attempts to slow down the tempo. It is in such matches that we often see Senegal build up attack after attack, without necessarily immediately scoring on the scoreboard – but it does provide activity around the box.

Conclusion

This is unlikely to be a final that is decided early. Everything indicates a match with respect, structure and small margins. At the same time, both the match picture and the statistics point to Senegal being the team that most often visits the opponent's field. They have shown throughout the tournament that they are able to maintain pressure over time, and their corner figures support this.

That makes a corner kick far more predictable than pure goal kicks in a final of this type.

Bet suggestions

AFCON Senegal – Morocco 20:00: Senegal over 3.5 corners (1.55)

Alternative bet (BetBuilder):
Under 2.5 goals + over 6.5 corners (1.80)

A close finale, low risk in the opening, but enough activity for the details to build up throughout the match.