Norway – Italy 06-06-25

The nation's eyes on Ullevaal - is this the night Norway takes the plunge?

Friday's match against Italy is not just another qualifier, it's a milestone. The Norwegian men's national team hasn't been to a championship since the European Championship in 2000. That summer, Erling Braut Haaland was born, and Antonio Nusa was still five years away from being born. The last time we were in a World Cup? 1998. We beat Brazil, and were eliminated by Italy. Now the circle can be closed. On home soil.

After winning the group stage of the Nations League last autumn, Norway has been given a golden chance to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. But the ambition is bigger: we want to go there directly, as group winners. With the king, crown prince and prime minister in the stands and a crowd in front of the TV screens, this is about more than three points. It's about showing who we are and where we're going.

Norway: An offensive golden streak and a team in balance

The qualifiers could hardly have started better: 5–0 against Moldova and 4–2 away against Israel are evidence of a team that both produces and wins with authority. In addition, it has been a long time since the atmosphere around the national team has been so good. The squad seems united, the coaching staff appears calmer and more coordinated, and both the people and the press are on board.

Offensively, Norway is at its most powerful in modern times. Haaland seems physically strong again after the injury break, Sørloth finished La Liga with a goal orgy and Ødegaard has delivered another great season in the Premier League. Behind them stands Jørgen Strand Larsen with 14 goals in the Premier League for Wolverhampton and knocking on the door.

But not everything is rosy. Several of the key players have had a rough May. Ajer received little trust in Brentford, Bobb has barely played, Nusa has struggled to return from injury and several in the squad come with little match training. There is a moment of uncertainty, especially on the wings and in the back rows.

At the same time, the breadth is good, and the feeling that everyone is pulling in the same direction is stronger than in a long time. This is no longer just about potential, this is about a team that is growing, maturing and believing in its project.

Italy: Unrest, dropouts and heavy legs, but dangerous at the top

Italy comes to Ullevaal with star players, but also with question marks. Several of the national team's mainstays from Inter have just been stripped bare in the Champions League final against PSG, and that has affected the charge. In addition, the atmosphere in the squad is anything but optimal.

Veteran stopper Francesco Acerbi refuses to play because he feels unwanted. Buongiorno is injured, Calafiori is out and Gatti has been out for much of the spring. There has also been criticism of the national team management and uncertainty about who is actually the first choice in defense. Italy has operated with a three-back line in recent games, with Di Lorenzo and Bastoni as two safe cards, but stability is absent.

Offensively, they do have players to count on. Mateo Retegui was the top scorer in Serie A with 25 goals, closely followed by Moise Kean with 19. The striker position is not the problem, but it doesn't help much if the rest of the team is hanging in the balance.

Conclusion: We don't play on hope, we play on what we believe is value. And right now it's Norway

This is not a game where Norway should be naive. But it is also not a game of fear. With Haaland, Sørloth and Ødegaard up front and a national team that seems to be pulling in the same direction, there is reason to attack with confidence.

Italy comes with stars, but also with unrest, decay and a weakened defense. Norway has home field advantage, in-form players in attack and a rare momentum.

But let it also be said: International matches are never the easiest for oddsmakers. The statistics are fresh, and the match base is small, the national team only plays a few matches a year. This makes it more difficult to build reliable models, and one should be extra careful about drawing conclusions based on past performances.

At the same time, that is exactly why we have to be confident when we first land on something. In this case, we believe that Norway has enough quality, enough flow and an opponent who is in enough trouble that this is a value we can vouch for.

Bet suggestions

Main game:
World Cup qualification at 20:45: Norway – Italy: Norway draw no bet (1.95)

The Ullevaal advantage and Italy's defensive challenges give Norway a real chance of winning. We play with confidence and secure our bet with a draw.

Alternative bet:
World Cup qualification 20:45: Norway – Italy: Over 1.5 goals Norway (2.20)

The Norwegian offensive is at its peak. Italy has looked unstable. Two Norwegian goals are within reach.

Long shot:

World Cup qualification 20:45: Norway – Italy: Sørloth scores (Odds coming)

Sørloth ended the season with a crash. Italy has weakened in the back. Here there is a possibility of high profit.

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