Newcastle - Manchester United 13-04-25

It wasn't long ago that Newcastle and Manchester United were on the same level – on paper anyway. Now it feels like they're playing two different games. Newcastle have the wind in their sails, home field advantage and a team that delivers both entertainment and results. Manchester United? They have a goalkeeper in crisis, a striker with a goal drought and a team that looks more like an assembly line of individual ideas than a team with a plan.

This is the game Newcastle expect to win. Not hope. The expectation is new. That says it all.

Newcastle: Goals, confidence and full throttle forward

It's not just that Newcastle win - it's how they do it. Since the end of February they have really found their form again. Four straight wins in the league:

• 3–0 against Leicester
• 2–1 away to Aston Villa
• 4–3 against West Ham
• 3–0 against Everton

They score a lot of goals, and they do it in different ways: set pieces, counterattacks, established attacks – everything works. What previously could have looked like a somewhat one-track team has now got more strings to play on.

Alexander Isak has found his scoring form again and has support from fast and technical players like Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy – the latter has contributed with both goals and assists recently and seems full of confidence.

The midfield of Guimarães and Joelinton is perhaps the most dynamic duo in the league right now. They win duels, set the pace and balance the team. Trippier continues to deliver offensively from the back, and it is rare that a game goes by without Newcastle creating big chances from the wings.

They have scored 2+ goals in five of their last six home games – and that's no coincidence. This team attacks with quality and weight.

Manchester United: The mistakes are repeated – and it's just embarrassing to watch

What can you say? Manchester United were never favourites to win the league this year, but no one expected them to be sniffing around mid-table in April. The team has won just two of their last eight league games, and in the Europa League they suffered another bitter defeat – this time away to Lyon after a miserable performance by goalkeeper André Onana. He made several mistakes and simply doesn't seem to have the trust of either his own fans or the defence in front of him.

Rasmus Højlund has been first choice at the top all season, but still only has 3 goals in the Premier League. He works, runs and presses – but it helps little when the end product is not there. It will simply be too dangerous going forward.

Bruno Fernandes tries to pull the strings, but it's difficult when the runs don't work and the combinations don't work. At least Casemiro is back, and can provide some more balance centrally, but that doesn't change the fact that the team as a whole appears both unbalanced and uninspired. Matthijs de Ligt is still uncertain, and without him they also lose dueling power and composure in the back.

United have now lost four of their last five games against Newcastle, three of which have been goalless. It's hard to see why things will turn around here - especially at St. James' Park, where Newcastle have been very solid all season.

Conclusion: Here the hosts should paint with a broad brush

Newcastle are simply better in almost every phase of the game right now. They have pace, rhythm and confidence – and they know they are up against a United side that often collapses when adversity strikes. They smell goals, and they smell goals early. With a crowd that is sure to boo every time Onana gets the ball, and with a midfield that can dominate this match, it is hard to imagine anything other than a home win – and one with goals.

And if Jacob Murphy starts – as he has done recently – he is not only an assist candidate, but also a man who suddenly appears in the box and scores a surprise. 4.00 on scoring? We'll take that.

Bet suggestions

Premier League at 17:30: Newcastle – Manchester United: Newcastle over 1.5 goals (1.59) 

Alternative game:

Newcastle to score in both halves (2.30)

Long shot:

Jacob Murphy Score Anytime (4.00)