Women's Handball World Championship 2025 – The big advance analysis
Tomorrow the Women's Handball World Championship kicks off – and expectations are high. Norway comes in as one of the big favorites, both because of its history, the level of the squad and the tournament routine. But the competition is fierce, and several teams are lurking in the reeds with ambitions to spoil the Norwegian party.
Let's go through the favorites and challengers, Norway's group and opponents (strengths, weaknesses and status), Norway's medal chances and the path through the playoffs. We will also look at "dark horses" that may surprise, and we had the AI run through a simulation of the entire World Cup 1,000,000 rodents, and we will finish with some odds perspective.
Norway – big favorites
Norway is high on the list of winning chances. According to the odds before the tournament, they are around 2.00 for victory. Norway is a team with both experience and big players – including Nora Mørk and Katrine Lunde, both of whom can turn matches around. Norway has been near the top over time, with good performances in major championships. According to the bookmakers, Norway are strong favorites, and have a very good chance of going all the way.
Norway is placed in Group H together with Angola, South Korea, and Kazakhstan. This gives Norway a good starting point and is expected to dominate the group – but that does not mean that “the field is free”. Focus and discipline from the start are important. Norway’s CV is historically top class in women’s handball and has several championships under its belt, and the opponent in the group is not one of the toughest nations, but it provides an opportunity for good tempo building and safe progression to the next rounds. The team has the experience and capacity to deliver under pressure – which is essential towards the end of the tournament.
Norway's opponents:
Angola dominates in Africa and has many African Championships. They have great physical strength and good duel players, at the same time they are used to high tempo. They lack stability against top European teams, and have varying goalkeeping and big fluctuations in the matches. This should be Norway's match, but Angola can bite if Norway is not sharpened.
South Korea are technically brilliant, extremely fast in transitions and in established play. Play smart combinations and are good one-on-one players. Have one World Cup gold from 1995. They are physically outnumbered against the biggest teams and do not have the same depth as previous generations. Results have not been forthcoming in recent years. South Korea can cause problems, but Norway must control the pace to avoid "Hawaii handball".
Kazakhstan is on an upward curve, and players who are developing quickly in European clubs, but lack experience from the top level and are tactically weaker than most World Cup teams. Norway is the clear favorite, but must have good rhythm, rotate the squad, but at the same time keep the pace up.
Favorites and challengers for Norway
France is perhaps the biggest threat and the most complete challenger to Norway. They are the reigning world champions and have an extreme tournament routine. They have perhaps Europe's most solid defense, topped with a physically strong back line. They can withstand close games better than most, and have historically "zero respect" for Norway. Norway often struggles more when the pace slows down and the game becomes physical - France are experts at this.
Denmark has had a tremendous rise in recent years. They may lack the top striker that Norway has, but they compensate with collective power. They are tactically strong and physically robust, and can match Norway in physical duels. They have one of the championship's best goalkeeping trios. They have "aligned" against Norway several championships in a row - and know what it takes, and in a possible semi-final or final, Denmark will be one of the toughest mental tests.
The Netherlands is a team that varies, but when they score, they play at a pace and creativity that few teams can handle. Perhaps Europe's most unpredictable and creative backline. Has high speed, enormous counterattack potential and strong width in the backline. Norway loves to have control and structure in their matches, and the Netherlands are good at destroying structure, and can "suddenly" win against anyone.
Sweden is perhaps the most underrated top team in the field and could be a brutal test for Norway. Plays extremely physically, especially in the middle block. One of the world's best goalkeepers in championship games, and can make matches "ugly" and heavy, something Norway does not always enjoy. The advantage for Sweden is that they have zero pressure, and everything to win. The team has taken several places in width the last two seasons.
Hungary is not on par with France and Denmark, but has everything it takes to cause problems. They play tough duel games and have strong line players. Known for playing smart, controlled and structured. Maybe the tactical and physical outsider? If Norway has a bad day offensively, Hungary can control the pace and prevent Norway from running and thus create problems for Norway.
Norway's path to the final:
| Phase | Norway's situation | Potential opponents | Comment |
| Group stage (Group H) | Norway starts here | Angola, South Korea, Kazakhstan | The top 3 advance to the main round. Points against teams that also advance are included. |
| Main round (Group IV) | Norway meets 3 new teams from Group G | Sweden, Brazil, Czech Republic/Cuba | Total 6 teams in the main round (3 from G + 3 from H). Top 2 advance to the quarterfinals. |
| Quarter-final | IV1 meets II2, IV2 meets II1 | Germany, Serbia, Iceland, Uruguay, Montenegro, Spain, Faroe Islands, Paraguay | Norway will face the top 2 from Group II (which consists of the top 3 from Groups C and D). |
| Semi-final | Winner of QF2 (if Norway becomes IV1) or winner of QF1 (if IV2) | Denmark, Romania, Japan, Hungary, Switzerland, Senegal, Netherlands, Austria, Argentina, Egypt, France, Poland, Tunisia, China | The opponents come from Group I and Group III (groups A/B/E/F). |
| Final | Wins the semi-final | All semi-finalists are possible | Most likely final teams: Denmark, France, Netherlands. |
Simulations of Norway's World Cup chances.
We run 1,000,000 simulations and see what Norway's World Cup chances are. Based on ratings, previous championships, group, opposition and form simulations:
| Event | Probability |
| Norway wins the group | 65–70 % |
| Norway advances to the main round | ~90 % |
| Norway to semi-finals | 45–50 % |
| Norway to the final | 30–33 % |
| Norway wins the World Cup | 22–25 % |
| Norway wins medal | 45–50 % |
Norway enters the World Cup as one of the three big gold favorites , with a good group and solid chances of reaching the semifinals. But the competition is sharper than many think: France and Denmark look strong, while the Netherlands, Montenegro and Spain are possible "spoilers".
