When the starting gun goes off on August 24th, it marks the beginning of the end for the 2025 tennis year. The US Open is the fourth, and final, Grand Slam, and while the players are heading East to fight the final duels, some eyes are set on the ATP Finals in December, while most others are thinking about vacation.
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But we have no plans to lie down and take a tennis vacation before we have to. The US Open is unique in many ways, while being just as festive as the other three. Here too, you get half-full champagne glasses for $32, here too, you can pretty much just hope for a ticket to the big arenas, and for two weeks, all the celebrities who can crawl and walk are ready to see and be seen. But still, there is something about the US Open that is different.
Because when tennis was to become the first sport in the world to offer equal prize money to women and men, it was this tournament that was first out. Much thanks to Billie Jean King, who in 1973 threatened a boycott if things didn't change for the better for women.
But the strict rules and the strict dress code also take a break while the matches are being fought in Flushing Meadows. Because no tournament in the world has such committed fans. Or; fans who are as bad at following the rules. Because tennis is strict. Of course, you shouldn't make noise during a rally, and you shouldn't applaud when you make unforced errors. You should behave in tennis matches, and these rules date back to colonial England. But Americans suck at that. The American players love it, the others hate it, and we plan to exploit it.
On the level with the elements
When betting on a tennis match, there are many factors that can affect the outcome. Some of these are beyond our control, such as sun, wind, the players' form and the time of day. But if there is one thing we must take into account, it is the surface. And how the players' skills are.
Because even though both the Australian Open and the US Open are played on hard courts, there is a relatively big difference in the surface. They did make some moves a couple of years ago, when there were too many long exchanges, but the surface is still categorized as slow-to-fast. So it's not necessarily the same ones who made it through Cincinnati and Montreal who need to go to the top here.
And that's exactly why power in serve and groundstrokes is not as crucial as in Wimbledon. But stability and endurance are not the most important thing either, as is often the case in the French Open. So here in the US Open you have to have a mix of everything. You have to be complete, instead of having a few extreme skills.
Who wins?
It's been a long time since Americans were the best in tennis. But if we look at the history of the US Open, it is dominated by domestic players. Sampras and Connors have the most wins on the men's side, along with Roger Federer, and on the women's side, Chris Evert and Serena Williams reign supreme. Four out of five are from the United States.
But the US hasn't won on the men's side since Andy Roddick won in 2003. And while both Fritz and Shelton have what it takes to go far, few believe they'll go all the way. On the women's side, however, the chances of a home win are higher. We don't have to go any further back than 2023 to find the last time, when Gauff beat Sabalenka in three sets, but even here it would be considered a surprise if anyone other than Sabalenka or Swiatek wins. Or?
Let's ask our tennis writers. They've been honing their skills since Wimbledon, and are finally ready to combine statistics, form, history, head-to-head matches and gut feelings to bring you the best bets. Every day we'll have odds tips and analysis from Arthur Ash Stadium, Louis Armstrong Stadium and all the other courts inside the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre.
And the winner is….
But yes; our writers. What do they think about this year's US Open? Who will win? Who will surprise? And who should we not leave the big chances to?
Patrick – The best are the best. This time too.
On the men's side, it's unfortunately hard to avoid the two pre-favorites, as soon as it's a Grand Slam and five sets. Sinner is the world's best hard court player - and he's going to play the final. Could Alcaraz possibly get into a little more trouble? The short answer is yes, he always has his ups and downs during a match, but he usually manages to come back even in three-set matches - and who would be able to take advantage of that in five sets?
If Djokovic is in reasonably good physical shape, I think he could be problematic since it's both a Grand Slam and a hard court - but is that really realistic? I actually give him a 30/70 chance in a match against Carlito. In any case, Sinner will probably come out on top, unless something happens to him.
But Alcaraz will drop sets during the tournament, which is not at all certain Sinner will do. Odds-wise, I think it's probably best to stick to singles matches. Neither Zverev nor a Fritz on home court has the stability to go all the way here. Draper is very exciting, but he has a long way to go before he's all the way up there. So my answer will probably be as boring as Svein's;
Sinner wins US Open (2.00)
But I would like to mention a couple of potential dark horses! Not as possible winners, but who may be able to go further than the bookmakers think:
Alex de Minaur "The Demon" – an incredibly good defensive tennis player, hence the nickname, who can pick up balls that seem physically impossible to reach. He can be a very tough nut to crack for most people on the slower hard courts.
Aleksandr Bublik – you may remember who was the last to beat Jannik Sinner? It was Bublik. True, on grass, but Bublik is one of the most naturally gifted tennis players – in the world. He just doesn’t always take things so seriously. To put it in perspective, for example, Tiafoe to win is at 61 odds, Ruud at 71, Shapovalov at 81 and our good friend Bublik at 86! He might be worth keeping an extra eye on.
Vebjørn – Giant duel for the men, open for the women
On the men's side, everything points to a new duel between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Sinner enters the tournament as world number one after a year in which he has dominated on hard courts with triumphs in both the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Only Alcaraz and a few others have managed to beat him this year. However, there is an uncertainty here – he had to withdraw from the final in Cincinnati with illness, and it raises questions about whether he will be able to be one hundred percent in New York.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, has had his most complete year to date. With Roland-Garros and several Masters victories, he is close to reclaiming the top spot in the ATP rankings. The walkover victory in Cincinnati gives him a boost and a mental advantage, and in the five-set format, very few are able to exploit the small dips in his game. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine a final without at least one of the two.
Behind them are outsiders, but hardly winners. Taylor Fritz gets home-field support, but lacks the stability to go all the way. Jack Draper is on the rise and could surprise, but his experience is still too little. Alex de Minaur can trouble anyone with his defensive work capacity, and Alexander Bublik has enough talent to cause shocks. Nevertheless, the reality is that the two pre-favourites are in a class of their own.
If I have to pick one winner in the men's tournament, I'd pick Sinner as my narrow favorite. The reason is simply that he's been the most consistent monster on hardcourt for the past two seasons. His serve has become a weapon on par with the basic game, and he seems more comfortable in the long five-set matches than ever. I'm therefore going with this as my tournament play;
Winner ATP US Open: Jannik Sinner (2.00)
On the women's side, the picture is much more mixed. Aryna Sabalenka is the reigning champion and tops the bookmakers' charts, but 2025 has been marked by missed opportunities rather than major triumphs. Iga Swiatek, on the other hand, has found her top form again. Her Wimbledon victory confirmed her level, and when she beat Elena Rybakina in straight sets in Cincinnati, she showed that she can also dominate on hard court.
Coco Gauff is the home favorite, with the crowd behind her and enough games to go far. But home court can be both a strength and a burden. Behind the top trio lurks Mirra Andreeva as a young talent with fearlessness, while Naomi Osaka and Madison Keys can cause unrest on their best days, but lack the stability to be considered real favorites.
I think Iga Swiatek will win. She simply looks the most complete right now. The Wimbledon title was confirmation that she has also raised her game off the clay, and the win against Rybakina in Cincinnati (two straight sets) shows that she comes to New York in top form. She has a level of basic play and a mental stability that Sabalenka and Gauff can't quite match at the moment. It's a bit more open here, but I definitely think this one is worth a look;
Winner WTA US Open: Iga Swiatek (4.25)
Svein Inge – the pre-match favorites come true. Again.
It's easy to get carried away and lose track of history, but we should remember that Nadal and Federer won 21 of 24 Grand Slams between 2005 and 2010. So what we're experiencing now is not unique. But Sinner and Alcaraz have found the last six Grand Slams, and I don't really see who's going to stop them. Especially not on hard court. There, the world has perhaps never seen anyone better than Jannik Sinner.
But right here at the US Open we have had a history of surprises. If we go back to when The Big Four broke through, Del Potro, Cilic, Wawrinka, Thiem and Medvedev have actually won. And Nishikori, Fritz, Ruud, Zverev and Kevin Anderson (!) have been in the final. So maybe this year?
No, I don't think so. Sinner and Alcaraz are way ahead of their competitors these days, and on hard court, Sinner is a horse's head ahead of Alcaraz too. So my tip is boring, but I don't see anyone else like this guy;
Winner ATP US Open: Jannik Sinner (2.00)
When it comes to the women, it's much more open. The tournaments in North America, in the weeks leading up to the US Open, have given us as many headaches as answers. Why would Sabalenka really lose to Rybakina? And how good is Gauff? Osaka with a new coach? Has Andreeva grown up? And can anyone really stop Swiatek?
It's funny that the women's US Open looks far more open than the men's. It also makes for some exciting odds to choose from. Because here I actually disagree with the bookmakers. Sabalenka is the reigning champion, but I actually think she can go through 2025 without a single Grand Slam, despite finals in both the Australian Open and the French Open.
Because what Swiatek showed at Wimbledon is some of the worst I've ever seen. And after a long and good vacation, she was doing the same on hard court. Just as convincing. And when she recently took Rybakina in two sets in Cincinnati, I don't really see who will be able to stop her. Sure; the tiger from Belarus has it in her. And Gauff is on home turf. But my money is placed here;
Winner WTA US Open: Iga Swiatek (4.25)
But what is a Grand Slam without a little bit of a bet on an outsider? The US Open is known to be the Grand Slam tournament where there are most surprises. And when we also know that history is dominated by American winners, we have to try our luck at Ben Shelton.
He has an extreme serve, which often gets him out of difficult situations, and he has a unique ability to bring out the best in these big tournaments. He was in the semi-finals here in 2023, and so far this year he has a semi-final in the Australian Open and a quarter-final in Wimbledon. And we know he will have thousands of crazy home fans behind him in every match. That can help decide tennis matches. So that's why we also try the following bets;
Winner ATP US Open: Ben Shelton (9:00 PM)
Alcaraz + Raducanu = the talk of the year
Doubles rarely attracts attention. There have been exceptions; like when the Bryan brothers dominated, but for the most part that part of the tournaments goes under the radar for most people. Part of the reason may be that there are completely different players who assert themselves in doubles, compared to singles. And that we therefore do not have a relationship with the names. Because doubles is actually so entertaining. And everyone who has played doubles knows that; the exchanges are both longer and more dramatic. And a lot happens at the net.
And what has been even less interesting than doubles is mixed doubles. Until now. Or until Alcaraz said yes, when Raducanu asked. Or the opposite. I don't know. But the media has jumped on it, and there has been speculation that this relationship extends beyond the tennis court. I don't know. And I don't care. But what's fun is that the entire world elite has now come together. In pairs. And for the first time, I'm looking forward to following mixed doubles in a Grand Slam. Check out who's starting;
But who wins? My tip is that none of these players win. Because it may sound strange, but doubles is something completely unique. You have to think differently, and you have to be good at other things than what is required in singles. Because we have seen how both Federer/Nadal, and Kyrgios/Djokovic got beaten by unknown tennis players the times they competed. A bit strange, because you especially need serve and volley, in addition to a lot of other things. And those I mentioned above should have plenty of that. But no. But anyway, it's fun that the big players are helping to focus on other aspects of tennis than just singles.
Join the community
Although we make suggestions for long bets here, it is the daily odds tips and analysis that we live by. And for. So make sure you are always up to date on what is on the odds list . But it is just as important to participate in our tennis channel in Discord . There you will find both like-minded people and live bets. Because we all know why things can change quickly in tennis. A break, a ball that rolls down the wrong side of the net or a controversial referee decision can lead to momentum shifts. And then you can be sure that the gang in Discord is ready with lucrative live bets. So join us. Tennis is best with others.
