Odds and betting are fascinating because they combine probability, psychology and risk. But built into the bookmakers' odds is a margin that ensures that the house has an advantage over time. We players have therefore, at all times, tried to develop strategies that can increase the chances of winning or reduce risk. Some strategies are based on analysis of results, while others — like Martingale — are based on betting patterns.
In our series of articles about different betting strategies, we start with the one that many people consider the simplest. We give you; the Martingale strategy.
History and basic principle
The Martingale strategy is one of the oldest and most well-known betting strategies in gambling, with roots dating back to the 18th century French gambling circles. It involves doubling your bet after each loss to make up for all previous losses while ensuring a small profit when a win finally comes. In practice, this works like this: you bet a certain amount, lose, double your bet, lose again, and so on — until you win once. When the first win occurs, it will cover all previous losses and provide a profit equal to the deposit.
It is typically used on bets with approximately equal chances of winning and losing, such as red/black in roulette or bets with odds of 2.00.
Advantages of the Martingale strategy
One of the biggest advantages of the Martingale strategy is its simplicity. It is easy to understand, easy to follow and does not require advanced analysis of the strategy itself. It can also provide a sense of control and quick wins, especially in short periods where long losing streaks are avoided.
For beginners, Martingale may seem attractive because it promises small, consistent wins as long as you “hit the jackpot.” In theory, it can work in short sessions, especially if you have discipline and clear limits on both your bets and losses.
These advantages make the Martingale a popular introductory tool for beginners who want to understand risk management and bet progression.
Disadvantages and risks of Martingale
Behind the seemingly simple logic, there are significant risks. The biggest weakness is the exponential growth in bets after several consecutive losses. A losing streak of just 6–7 games can lead to very high bets, even if you started modestly.
Additionally, all bookmakers have betting limits, and players always have a limited bankroll. When you either reach the maximum bet or run out of money, the strategy completely breaks down.
Another disadvantage is that the strategy does not take into account the value of the odds – it only focuses on bet size, not whether the game is actually profitable in the long run. Over time, the bookmaker's margin will increase the likelihood of large losses.
And remember, even if you double your bet, it doesn't affect the actual probability of winning. There is no "borrowing from the laws of mathematics" — each bet is independent and has the same expected outcome every time
Example of Martingale strategy in practice
Prerequisites:
- Starting bet: 100 kr
- Odds: 2.00 (even odds)
- The bet doubles after each loss
- The strategy is stopped at the first win
| Game no. | Stake (NOK) | Result | Profit/Loss (kr) | Accumulated result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | Loss | −100 | −100 |
| 2 | 200 | Loss | −200 | −300 |
| 3 | 400 | Loss | −400 | −700 |
| 4 | 800 | Loss | −800 | −1 500 |
| 5 | 1 600 | Win | +1 600 | +100 |
Explanation of the table
As the table shows, the bet is increased after each loss to cover all previous losses when a win finally comes. In this example, the fifth bet leads to a win, and the win of 1,600 kroner covers the previous losses of a total of 1,500 kroner. The final result is therefore +100 kroner , equal to the original starting bet.
At the same time, the table also illustrates the strategy's biggest weakness:
After just four losses in a row, the player must bet 1,600 kroner to win back a relatively modest win. With more losses, the bet would grow dramatically further.
Summary and conclusion
The Martingale strategy is both simple and tempting — but also risky and often misunderstood. It provides a clear framework for betting after losses, but it is based on mathematical idealization that does not hold up in the face of table limits and real-world bankroll constraints. While it can work in small, controlled sessions and provides an intuitive win-loss model, it can also lead to large and rapid losses if used indiscriminately.
Our experience is that it also places strict demands on self-discipline. In addition, one would rather hunt for odds of at least 2.00 in odds, instead of hunting for the good game. Because we should never forget; winning back what you lost is one of the most dangerous things you can undertake, and roughly speaking, that is exactly what the Martingale strategy is all about.
It was the conviction that we were good enough to avoid 4-5 losses in a row, even though the odds were around 2.00, that drew us towards the Martingale strategy in the first place. And maybe we are. But when we tested this out, we probably weren't disciplined enough to wait for the really good games to come. Because with failing self-discipline, Martingale quickly becomes expensive. So our final conclusion must be; Martingale seems logical in theory – but a bit risky in practice.
