The 2025/26 La Liga season is approaching, and based on the status as of July 2025, we can expect some clubs to overperform compared to expectations, while others risk underperforming. Below is a thorough assessment with emphasis on expectation level, squad strengths/weaknesses, coaching stability, transfer activity, key players and pressure from European tournaments.
Teams that can impress (overperform)
Real Sociedad
The Basque club had a disappointing 2024/25 season, finishing 11th and with a negative goal difference, after several years as a fixture in Europe. The summer of 2025 marks a turning point: club legend Imanol Alguacil has stepped down as manager, with reserve team coach Sergio Francisco taking over. The squad has lost two central midfielders – Mikel Merino left for Arsenal last summer, and in July the club confirmed the sale of Martín Zubimendi to Arsenal for around €60m. These losses have weakened the midfield, but Real Sociedad still have a talented squad led by attacking star Takefusa Kubo and captain Mikel Oyarzabal. With no European competition to worry about this season, the focus can be fully on the league, and with a new coach who continues the club's style of play, La Real can bounce back and challenge for European places again – something that would surpass the low expectations after last year's collapse.
Seville
The Andalusians are traditionally a powerhouse in Spanish football, but finished all the way down in 17th place last season – just one point above the relegation zone. The dramatic fall from a club that won the Europa League as late as the spring of 2023, to almost being relegated in 2025, means that expectations are now muted. This summer, Sevilla got a fresh start with a change of coach: the successful Argentine coach Matías Almeyda was brought in after winning the league and cup in Greece. Almeyda has a clear mandate to rebuild the club in a sporting way and avoid relegation. His squad still has a lot of quality – including the profiles Dodo Lukebakio, Lucien Agoume, Loic Badé and Ørjan Nyland – even though several veterans such as Nemanja Gudelj and Adnan Januzaj are enjoying their careers. Without a European Cup this year, Sevilla has a golden opportunity to concentrate on their domestic league for the first time in a long time. Given last year's crisis, anything in the top half would be a positive surprise, and the club's winning culture in Europe in recent years suggests that the potential for an upturn is certainly there. With Almeyda's intense style and new energy, Sevilla could outperform low expectations and perhaps get involved in the race for Europe again.
Valencia
The fallen giant from Mestalla has been through several difficult years, marked by sporting decline and chaos off the pitch. 2024/25 was also a fight for existence; Valencia was close to the relegation zone for much of the season. That the club with such proud traditions found itself in relegation contention for the second year in a row was a huge disappointment, even though they eventually managed to climb to 12th place. The hope for improvement now lies with coach Carlos Corberan, who came in midway through and gave the team a boost. Corberan is known for organizing teams that are tough to beat. Under him, young local players such as Javi Guerra and Diego López showed promising moves, and the club avoided relegation despite the crisis. Expectations ahead of 2025/26 are historically low for Valencia – the main goal is probably to avoid relegation – but that is precisely why “Los Che” can surprise positively. The squad has talent and some experienced stalwarts like José Gayà, and without the distraction of European competition they can focus on the league. If Corberan can establish his defensively solid style and the club avoids selling key players in the transfer window, Valencia could bite the bullet. A top-half finish (or even a challenge for a Conference League place) would be impressive given the club's recent chaos.
Levant
Newly promoted Levante UD are emerging as a potential "giant killer" this season. The club from Valencia is back in La Liga after three years, and they come with ambitions of more than just survival. Under coach Julián Calero, Levante has established an offensive and dynamic style of play that stood out in the Segunda División. The promotion was secured through attractive football, and the club is planning smart summer signings to strengthen key positions without losing the core of the team. Historically, Levante has often done well after promotion – they are La Liga's "yo-yo team" with five promotions since 2000 and have surprised bigger teams on several occasions. External expectations will be that Levante will fight against relegation, but internally they dream of more. The team has experienced profiles with top-flight experience and will probably supplement with young hungry players (among others, they are rumored to be loaning the talented Iker Losada from Real Betis). Without European pressure and with great enthusiasm after promotion, Levante could be the positive surprise of the season – perhaps stabilizing in the middle of the table and shocking some of the established clubs.
Teams that may disappoint (underperform)
Athletic Club
The Basques were one of the great sunshine stories last season – Ernesto Valverde's men took a sensational 4th place and secured Champions League participation for the first time in 11 years. Now the situation is turned on its head: Athletic goes from underdog to favorite in many matches, and they will have a much tougher match load. The relatively small squad will have to cope with four tournaments in 2025/26: the league, the cup, the super cup and the Champions League. Athletic is known for its unique recruitment policy of only Basque players, which limits how much they can strengthen the team this summer. The club is working on some new signings, but there is no guarantee that the breadth will be good enough. The most important players – such as the Williams brothers, Oihan Sancet and goalkeeper Unai Simón – remained largely injury-free last year; a similar flow will be needed if Athletic is to avoid a setback. Experience shows that teams of Athletico's size often struggle to combine La Liga and the Champions League. Expectations in Bilbao are skyrocketing after last year's achievement, but that's precisely why 2025/26 could end in disappointment. The risk is that attrition and a focus on Europe will see Athletic drop out of the top 4 and perhaps even down to the middle tier – a decline compared to expectations. Such a regression would be reminiscent of what happened the last time the club was in the Champions League in 2014, when the series became difficult to prioritize. Valverde has extended his contract by one year and will try to keep the momentum up, but if Athletic only manage a 7th-8th place, many in the Basque Country will still feel disappointed after last year's success.
Villarreal
"The Yellow Submarine" navigated back on track last year after a troubled start. Under coach Marcelino García Toral (who came in mid-season), Villarreal finished in 5th place and captured the last Champions League ticket, thanks to La Liga's extra place this year. The expectations internally are therefore Champions League play and a new top 4 match, but that may prove difficult to meet. Villarreal has a relatively small club economy compared to the giants, and will now face an increased match load in Europe. Their squad is talented, but thin. Last year, Ayoze Pérez was a revelation - he became the team's top scorer with 19 league goals - and new young players struck after integrating fresh blood into the eleven. This summer, however, Villarreal is very vulnerable to losing key players. Ayoze's big play has attracted interest; among others, Saudi Arabian clubs are said to be ready to offer around €20 million for the 30-year-old. The club would like to keep him, but if the money is tempting the player, Villarreal could be without its most important goalscorer. Other profiles such as youth star Álex Baena and winger Yeremy Pino are also being considered from bigger clubs. It has now also been confirmed that Álex Baena is packing his bags and heading to Atlético Madrid. Although Marcelino is an experienced coach who knows the club's culture, he will have a balancing act to deal with: Rolling around in the league to compete in Europe could cost him points. The expectations among the fans are that Villarreal will establish themselves at the top again, but the reality could be a mediocre league season. A possible drop back to 7th-8th place, or at worst the bottom half, would be a clear underperformance after last year's strong fifth place.
Celta Vigo
The Galicians were one of the big surprises in 2024/25 by securing 7th place and a Europa League berth – just one year after narrowly avoiding relegation. Credit should go to young coach Claudio Giráldez, who took over a Celta in crisis in the spring of 2024 and transformed the team into an attack-minded, home-strong team. Now, however, there is a danger that Celta has gotten in over their head. The club is going to Europe for the first time in nine years, and although that gives pride, it also means a significant additional burden on an already small squad. Giráldez himself has warned of just this: He points out that it will be difficult to maintain the same numbers next year and keep the entire squad. Celta has already had to endure interest in its biggest profiles this summer. Captain Iago Aspas is 37 and in the process of stepping down, while other key players such as midfielder talent Gabri Veiga (who broke through in 2022/23) have already left the club for bigger financial offers. Celta has been active in the transfer market, both in bringing players in and out. However, the dual focus on league and Europe will take its toll on the squad. Celta does not have extensive experience in combining tournaments, and many remember how smaller Spanish clubs often struggle the year after they qualify for Europe (Osasuna in 2007, Espanyol in 2020, etc.). Expectations in Vigo have been raised after last year's success, but there is a big risk that Celta will end up further down the table this time. A place in the middle of the table or lower – and an early exit in the Europa League – will feel like an underachievement compared to the dream season they just had.
Rayo Vallecano
The people's favourite from the Madrid suburb of Vallecas secured a sensational 8th place in 2024/25 and thus Conference League qualification on the last day of the season. The joy was enormous – Rayo will be in Europe for the first time in 25 years, which in itself exceeded everyone's expectations. But there is a downside to the medal: Rayo will have to play qualifying games as early as August, which means minimal holidays and a shortened warm-up. A club with Rayo's limited resources could quickly struggle to juggle Thursday matches in Europe with the La Liga round this weekend. The squad is among the league's thinnest, and although Rayo under coach Inigo Perez has overachieved with the help of team morale and intensive pressing, they will now be tested for endurance. History is full of examples of smaller clubs experiencing a "European Cup hangover" – that is, league performances fall as the match schedule tightens. Rayo fans are obviously dreaming of another European party trip, but if the team makes it to the group stage, it will mean 6 extra matches in midweek. With limited rotation, their form in La Liga could suffer. Local expectations are already high after two straight top 10 finishes, but the reality could be a battle to keep their heads above water in the league. If Rayo ends up in the relegation battle in 2025/26, it will be a big disappointment compared to last year's performance - but not an unexpected consequence of the new situation the club is in. The team does have experienced players like Óscar Trejo and the great talent Isi Palazón, but the breadth behind them is not all that great. If injuries or tired legs start to show up in the autumn, coach Francisco could have a tough time. Copying 8th place seems unrealistic; underperformance for Rayo this season could easily mean a position around 14th-15th and an exit from the Conference League, which would put a damper on the adventure.
What happens when the season kicks off?
That's what makes La Liga so fascinating. History shows that expectations often mean little when the floodlights are turned on and the points start to count. Some will fall hard, others will seize the opportunity and write their own story. 90mf follows the journey from the first kick - and we promise to capture both the surprises and the downfalls, week by week.
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This text is part of our La Liga season start series.
Also check out:
La Liga season start: Who lifts the trophy, and who falls? Our prediction for 2025/26
La Liga season start: Transfer market in the summer of 2025/26
