For us who love football, nothing beats the Eliteserien. And fortunately, that's how it is, since this is where we live after all. And these are the teams we are closest to. But we also love odds and gambling, and you have to be careful not to mix in emotions. Heart and pain and that kind of thing. That doesn't fit in when you're coldly and cynically going to pick a winner. So what do you do then?
Situation at the time of writing
But first; let's take a look at how the teams are doing. Because even though some of the excitement is gone, especially related to who will be relegated directly, there are still plenty of unanswered questions. Who will take the qualifying spot? Will it be Bryne? Or HamKam? Or is Sarpsborg 08's form so bad that they too could join Haugesund and Strømsgodset down?
And is it fair to say that the league gold medal goes to either Bodø or Stavanger? But will it be Glimt or Viking who gets it? And what about the other European Cup places? No, there are enough reasons to stay glued to the screen for the remaining 10-11 league rounds.
Motivation as a factor
As the season draws to a close, motivation is a factor that must be factored into your betting. If a team can climb above the line, into the top flight or even to the top, there is a good chance that they will find strengths they have not previously shown. And if you have nothing to lose, overbetting is often a good choice as the season draws to a close. All hands to the pumps is often synonymous with over 2.5 goals.
But there are also alternatives. And it is important to know about these alternatives. Because it is only the bookmaker who benefits from our not adapting. Only marking bets, or only over bets, are never the solution. Here we must be able to adapt the type of bet according to team, league and form. So let's take a look at what you can bet on, beyond the most common;
When HUB and over 2.5 goals don't tempt
Because the Eliteserien is not free from surprises. Here too, an overtime score can ruin a marking game, and all the xG in the world does not always mean that the match will go over 2.5 goals. So where can you place your money? Let's look at some trends that have characterized the season so far;
Corners
Did you know that it is Fredrikstad that has most often played matches with over 9.5 corners? A full 14 of the 18 matches FFK has been involved in have gone over the line. Perhaps a little surprising, as they have a reputation for being stingy and wait-and-see. But with 5.11 corners for, and 5.39 corners against, they are a team to consider the next time you are betting on the Eliteserien.
Furthermore, it is perhaps not so surprising that it is Viking, Bodø/Glimt and Brann who create the most corners in the Eliteserien, but did you know that Sarpsborg 08 is in fourth place? With 6.11 corners per game, it is a number that stands in stark contrast to the form the team is in these days. So maybe we should try for over 4.5 corners to Sarpsborg at the next crossroads? In that case, it is a bet at good odds, and not least; good value.
Not surprisingly, FK Haugesund and Strømsgodset give up the most corners, with 7.63 and 7.05 per match respectively. But the fact that only Bodø/Glimt gives up fewer corners than Molde surprised us. Molde only gives up 3.95 corners per match, and you get under 4.5 corners to the opponent at very good odds in almost all matches for the team from North-West Norway.
Cards and free kicks
When we plan to play on cards, our thoughts quickly turn to which team averages the most. Perhaps not so unnatural, as it says something about both playing style and mentality that Molde is at the top of that list with their 2.32 cards on average per game.
But it is just as interesting to see which referees give the most cards. Because no one is more generous with the cards than Daniel Higraff. Together with Marius Hansen Grøtta, he is the only one who has more than 4 cards per game. Something to take with him into the next round of the series.
And maybe you can also consider an under-card game? In that case, our tip is to look north. Because Bodø/Glimt has only received 0.79 yellow cards per game. Very impressive. So maybe under 1.5 cards for Bodø/Glimt this weekend?
We at 90minutefamily also want to take a crack at betting on the number of free kicks. More and more bookmakers are now offering this, and what is a bit interesting to see is that there is a discrepancy between the teams that get the most cards and the teams that make the most free kicks. Because here Molde is far down the list, while Tromsø is at the top, along with Bryne, Sandefjord and Vålerenga. While Bodø/Glimt is at the bottom here too. If you have the ball for large parts of the match, you may not need to make so many free kicks and get so many yellow cards…
Who scores first? And last? And who doesn't score?
Now we are sailing in uncharted waters, but it is interesting to see that here too there are clear trends. Trends that we can make money on. Did you know that Bodø/Glimt has scored first in 100% of their matches? 19 out of 19. Incredible. And perhaps just as impressive is that Sandefjord has scored first in 67% of their matches. While Sarpsborg 08 is the team that most often ends up behind. Together with Haugesund, of course.
And speaking of Haugesund; they have managed to leave the field goalless 12 times. That is, in 63% of the matches this year. The next team at the top of the dubious list is Fredrikstad with their 7 matches without a goal. And do you know who Fk Haugesund will face this weekend? That's right; Fredrikstad. Not given that that match will be a goal fest….
But if you are looking for a goal celebration, then know that we have two teams that in 74% of cases have gone over 2.5 goals. More specifically Strømsgodset and Viking. Possibly Brann or Sandefjord. They go over in 72% of the matches. And no matter what you do; stay away from overs in the matches of RBK and FFK. They are at 39% and 33% respectively on the aforementioned overview.
Summary
So as you can see; odds are more than HUB and over 2.5 goals. And if you have the overview and knowledge, you also have an advantage against a market that is rich in selection. So don't lock yourself into anything or anyone. Read up, use available sources, watch plenty of football, follow your gut and try your luck. Because remember; life is better for those who like football. And odds.
