Snowball day 1 – 16.03.26

Snowball

The snowball starts every Monday with a stake of 100 kroner , and the entire winnings are played from game to game as long as the streak lasts. If the bet fails, we will start a new snowball the following Monday. When Thursday comes, we always take out the original stake from Monday, so that we still secure the amount we started with. Any winnings beyond this are allowed to continue rolling to see how far the snowball can grow. An upper limit of a maximum of seven games , so that the last game in the snowball is always played on Sunday. That way, we can start a new snowball again the following Monday. The goal is to find games with high probability and clear value, where the odds are normally between 1.30 and 1.60 .

Portsmouth–Derby

It is set for a high-scoring game when Portsmouth host Derby at Fratton Park tonight, and much is pointing to at least two goals in the match. The statistics from this year's Championship season provide several clear indications that over 1.5 goals is a very realistic outcome.

Firstly, the season statistics show that Portsmouth rarely play completely goalless games. The team has scored around one goal per game in the league this season, while conceding over 1.2 goals on average. Overall, this means that their games on average are approaching well over two goals per game when you add up the goals for and against.

Derby are also a team that contributes to open games. They have scored 54 goals and conceded 48 in 37 league games this season, which gives an overall average of almost 2.8 goals per game. When an offensive Derby team meets a Portsmouth team that often concedes goals, the likelihood of the match seeing at least two goals increases even further.

If you look at the head-to-head matches, the picture becomes even clearer. The recent meetings between the teams have often produced multiple goals. The last two league matches have ended 1–1 and 2–2, and several of the matches in recent years have exceeded two goals in total.

Historically, this is also a match that tends to produce goals. Over time, the average is over three goals per match when Portsmouth and Derby meet, which is a strong statistical signal that goal lines like 1.5 are often beaten in this match.

Stake: 100 kr

Potential profit: 144 kr