There are only a few weeks until the first serve in Melbourne, and after a long period of limited selection, our experts are reasonably hungry. The 2026 Australian Open is the first of this year's four Grand Slams, and we are ready to help you. Because even though tennis is predictable, we know that the sport is full of variables.
It may sound strange, but tennis is actually predictable. Sinner, Alcaraz, Sabalenka, Gauff and the other top-10 players usually win their matches. And it is these four who win what are known as Grand Slams. But unfortunately there is little value to be gained from these matches. You have to dare to tread where the value lies buried.
And if you understand the dynamics behind the surface, playing style, form, physics and match form, then you have understood enormously. Because that is where tennis is quite unique. Ranking does not have to mean much if the surface does not suit the player. Or; playing styles against each other can trump both form and ranking. Our experts know this, and here we have tried to summarize everything in a guide, so that you can more easily benefit from the invaluable knowledge.
The most important factors in tennis betting
There are an incredible number of factors we need to take into account when making money on tennis, as tennis is an extremely complex sport. And thus it is also very complex to bet on. We have tried to dive into the most important ones;
1. Substrate and conditions
The surface controls ball speed, bounce and match structure, and the different types of play respond very differently to the different properties found in the many different surfaces. Just look here;
1.1 Serve cannons
Characteristics: High serve percentage, short points, aggressiveness.
Best on: Grass, indoor hard court.
Bad on: gravel.
1.2 Aggressive baseliners
Characteristics: Powerful ground strokes, short duels, flat strokes.
Best on: Hard court, grass.
Bad at: Gravel, if they don't have the stamina.
1.3 All-rounders
Characteristics: Can dominate on all surfaces with small adjustments.
Best on: Hard court.
Good on: All surfaces, if the adaptation is strong.
1.4 Defensively oriented players (Counter-punchers)
Characteristics: Patience, good rebounds, strong legs, endurance.
Best on: Clay and medium-slow hard courts.
Bad at: Fast indoor.
1.5 Heavy topspin players
Characteristics: High bounce, heavy balls, physical play.
Best on: Gravel.
Bad on: Grass.
1.6 Serve-volley
Characteristics: Attacks net, presses early, short points.
Best on: Grass, fast indoor.
Bad on: Gravel.
2. Serve/hold–break models
The core of match analysis is assessing how often each player is expected to hold serve. Big serves are more stable and harder to break, and here too the surface plays a role;
3. Match-ups
Players perform very differently against different types of players, and match-ups often trump rankings. Here is a simple model;
3.1 Gravel:
- Topspin > flat strokes
- Returners > serve cannons
- Endurance > explosiveness
3.2 Grass:
- Serve > return
- Flat strokes > topspin
- Aggressiveness > defensive patience
3.3 Hard Court Outdoor:
- Balance is key – no style dominates alone
- Wind: advantage for players with good stability in their strokes, and can be challenging for players who base their game on serve.
3.4 Indoor Hard Court:
- Serving cannons and offensive players have a big advantage
- Smooth bounce gives advantage to players with rhythmic groundstroke play
4. Shape and physical status
Tennis combines explosive movements with long-term endurance work. A match can last up to five hours, often with high intensity throughout. Players must repeatedly accelerate, stop abruptly, change direction and hit with maximum force – often hundreds of times during a single match.
In addition, tennis is played without breaks that allow for full recovery. There are short breaks between points, and players have to recover quickly. All of this makes workload in advance, and the ability to recover, absolutely crucial to know. Perhaps one of the players has played three qualifying rounds before the match in question? Or perhaps the player made it all the way to the final the week before, in a country far away? Or vice versa; perhaps the player was eliminated in the first round the week before, and thus has a much better start to the match? These are factors that very often come into play.
5. Psychology and momentum
Few sports are as mentally demanding as tennis. And here the psychological demands are as great as the physical ones. Because in tennis it is not about winning the most points, but about winning the decisive points. Why is it, for example, that some people win tiebreaks more often than others? Or manage to save themselves from break points?
In addition, we know that some of us respond minimally to our opponent's noises and facts, while others are completely put out. And what about questionable refereeing decisions? Some may need a set to get back on their feet after such an episode. And who responds best to being behind with a break in the deciding set? Some collapse, while others fight to the last.
These are human traits we are well acquainted with. Because we know who has a psyche made of steel, and who is easily swayed by the stick. And we know who can't handle playing against whom. Because unlike many other sports, confrontation is a very important aspect of tennis.
What can you play on?
As in so many other sports, you can bet on most things in tennis. Much of it is mostly entertainment and not very profitable, but it is still important to know what is offered. Here is an overview of what we play most;
Match winner
We started the article by claiming that tennis is predictable. Which we stand by. But unfortunately there is little value to be gained from the biggest guns. With odds as low as 1.15 you have to have 5-6 matches on the coupon to get odds, and here we explain why that is not such a good idea.
But pure marking bets do occur. Because when we have included form, surface, match-up and match schedule into the calculation, there is often value to be found. Perhaps the bookmaker has not taken into account that the surface favors the lower ranked player? Or do the players have a history where one has a clear mental advantage? This is our job to find out, and these are assessments that are made behind every single betting suggestion on the website.
Games/set lines
We like it here, and this is a place where we find a lot of value. But it also requires that you know enough about both the players, the playing styles and the surface. Because in matches where one is a clear favorite, the odds on e.g. over 20.5 games can be well at 1.70. And if the match is played on a fast surface, and the underdog has a stable and heavy serve, one set can quickly go to a tiebreak. Or at least end 7-5. Then the game is well underway.
In addition, we use overbets, both on games and sets, in matches where we feel the outcome will be more even than the bookmaker suggests. That is, the players are not so different in level. Then we quickly see matches go over 2.5 sets, and 20.5 games.
Pure overplays are often used on faster surfaces where the serve is rarely broken.
Handicap
As mentioned, the odds are usually very low on favorites, and if you give the favorite a few games handicap, you often get playable odds. Remember; a tennis set must be won with a two-game margin (except in a tiebreak). Therefore, the games run quickly if you, for example, play -3.5. An even match that ends 6-4, 6-4 gives a win with such a handicap.
But we often use handicaps when it comes to sets. And perhaps especially in the men's Grand Slam, because there they play best-of-5 sets. -1.5 sets on one of the favorites can quickly boost the odds up from 1.30 to 1.65. And it's not often that the favorites drop two sets during the first week of a Grand Slam.
Another option is to bet on your player to win 2-0/3-0 in sets. This happens, especially in cases where the strength is very uneven. And it also happens in Grand Slams, especially in the first week, when the biggest favorites are better off saving their energy if they are to have any hope of going far in the tournament.
But you can also use the handicap the other way around. In matches where we think the odds are odd. Then we often play +4.5 games, or +1.5 sets, to the underdog. This has been very profitable in the past, and when the underdog has a good serve on a fast surface, it often gives the bet a ringing coin in the coffers.
Live betting
Few sports are better suited to live betting than tennis. Momentum changes quickly here, and if you are prepared, you can get bets with good value. A break of serve is dramatic, but not decisive. Especially not if it is early in the match. And many of the best players are fine with losing both serve and the first set. If that happens, you often get very good odds on even the very best players. Remember; tennis is not played on time. So it does not help to lead "until the break", as it does in football. You cannot defend a lead, you actually have to perform something right up to the finish line.
Similarly, a controversial refereeing decision, weather conditions, and wear and tear and injuries can quickly reveal value to the person following. And if you're not following, you can be sure that someone else is, and will inform the rest of us via our tennis channel in Discord .
A kind of summary
To briefly understand something as complex as tennis is not easy. But try your best. Read our guide, in addition to our article about the different surfaces , watch a lot of tennis, follow our experts and participate in the discussions in Discord, and you will both understand more, in addition to discovering a wonderfully fascinating sport. Because the most common mistakes odds players make are to;
- Overfocusing on ranking
- Underestimating the substrate
- Ignores injuries and minor physical ailments
- Blind trust in statistics without context
- Ignoring match-ups
So let's help each other to be better. To win more.
Good luck.
