Wrexham - Stockport County 22/03/2025

Two of League One's top promotion candidates meet in a crucial clash when Wrexham host Stockport at the Racecourse Ground on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are fighting for automatic promotion to the Championship, and this could prove to be one of the most important games in the final stretch. These teams have been feeling each other to death for several seasons now. Both teams have received solid financial subsidies in recent seasons and have fought a sporting and financial battle to be the biggest. Both stadiums have received solid upgrades, and bigger and bigger names are coming through the doors of both teams. It will be incredibly exciting to see if these two can once again follow each other up to the prestigious Championship and continue the fight to be the best.

Wrexham are in 3rd place with 71 points, only behind Wycombe on goal difference. But Wycombe are not in action this weekend, so Wrexham have a golden opportunity to climb back into the direct promotion places with a positive result. Stockport are six points behind in 5th place, but are in an impressive period with only one defeat in their last 12 games (8-3-1).

Wrexham - Home stats need to improve

Wrexham have had a strong season and have been particularly solid away from home, recently beating Wycombe 1-0. This was the team's third 1-0 win in four games, and their fifth win in their last six away games. At home, however, they have had their challenges. After a four-game winless run on home turf, they finally got their act together with a 1-0 win over Rotherham earlier this month. And it should be noted that they have historically dominated this fixture at the Racecourse Ground, with three straight home wins against Stockport.

Phil Parkinson will have to deal with a number of absences for this match. Luke Bolton, Callum Burton, Andy Cannon and Ollie Palmer are all out with injury. In addition, Sebastian Revan and Ryan Barnett are doubtful after missing the previous match. Thomas O'Connor could return to the starting line-up after starting on the bench last time out, and in that case would form a back three alongside Max Cleworth and Eoghan O'Connell.

Key statistics for Wrexham:

• Only one loss in the last six games (4-1-1)
• 13 wins at home this season
• Five last league matches have ended with under 2.5 goals
• Three straight home wins against Stockport

Stockport County – Still in the fight for direct promotion

Stockport are in solid form and have won two of their last three away games, including a crucial 1-0 win over Bolton last weekend, with Isaac Olaofe scoring the match-winner. Although they are in a strong position in the promotion race, they are six points behind Wrexham and need a strong finish to the season to secure direct promotion. With a win here, they can really put pressure on the teams ahead. Much of the reason why Stockport are where they are was the sparkling play led by Louis Barry in the autumn season. Such strong play that he was the top scorer in League One, and the top 4 leagues in England in general. Aston Villa therefore wanted him back, only to loan him back to Hull – pointless for the player's form and development, even though Hull are a division above. Stockport struggled after Barry disappeared, but have found strength in the collective again, now without a clear goalgetter.

Dave Challinor also has some injury challenges. Nick Powell, Ben Hinchcliffe and Fraser Horsfall are out, while Macauley Southam-Hales is doubtful after missing the previous match. Ibou Touray, Callum Connolly and Kyle Wootton could all be in contention for a start after being substituted at half-time against Bolton.

Stockport won the last meeting between the teams 1-0 in November and have the opportunity to secure an important double victory over Wrexham. It means a lot for the pride of the team and the fans - there is a lot in this matchup between two rivals who have followed each other so closely for several seasons.

Key statistics for Stockport:

• Only one win in the last four games (1-2-1)
• One loss in last 12 games (8-3-1)
• Seven away wins this season
• Nine of the last 11 matches have ended with under 2.5 goals

Game recommendations:

Both squads have significant deficiencies, so here they are evenly matched. This is a matchup between two teams that have shown solid defensive organization. Wrexham's last five league games have had under 2.5 goals, and the same applies to nine of Stockport's last 11. Both teams are strong defensively and know how important it is to avoid defeat in these types of games. We may see a slightly more cautious approach here, but I still think both teams have the capacity to find their way to the net. It is not unlikely that only one of the teams will manage to do so. Let's dig into some statistics and weed out potentially good and less good candidates for the main game:

• Under 2.5 goals (1.50): Under is the first, obvious candidate. This is based on the teams' recent statistics and their defensive strength. That said: the last 3 out of 5 games between these have ended with over 2.5 goals. I can't quite defend an over in this game, but it can be made at 2.48 if someone has faith in it. If we take the teams' last 10 games in total into account, only 1 game has ended with over 2.5 goals.
• Both teams to score (2.06): The odds on both teams scoring are high here. And it depends on the statistics. None of Wrexham's last 5 matches have ended with goals both ways, while for Stockport there have been 2/5 matches with goals both ways. Internally between these? 1 in 5 matches. This is a risky bet, but I have a slight gut feeling that we will get goals both ways. It is an important match with a lot of nerves and then mistakes can easily occur, both ways. We keep this as a lukewarm alternative.
• Both teams not to score (1.71): Let's turn the odds game upside down. We have two defensive teams facing each other in an important matchup. Mistakes can happen, but both teams have experienced players who have been through this before, and can use calm and cynicism when needed. Building on the statistics mentioned in the previous point, this could be a very good candidate for the main bet.
• Draw (3.00): The importance of victory is great for both teams, but the importance of avoiding defeat and rather getting 1 point is just as great. This opens up the possibility of a high-odds bet on a draw – in my opinion, absolutely not unlikely here. That said, if you look at the history between these two, it has never ended in a draw (in 13 games).

This will be an intense match that could go either way. It could be a goalless draw and a game that goes back and forth. My gut feeling is that the following game is closest:

League One at 16:00: Wrexham – Stockport County: Both teams to score – no (1.71)