WRC Vodafone Rally de Portugal 15-05-2025

Rally de Portugal is one of the most iconic and traditional rounds of the World Rally Championship. The race was first held in 1967, and in 1973 it became part of the WRC programme. Since then, it has been a central part of the championship, with the exception of a few years. The rally is known for its fast but technically demanding gravel roads in the hilly terrain around Porto. The surface varies from soft sand to hard-packed gravel, and weather conditions can change quickly, making tyre choice and driving style crucial. The event is known for its huge crowd turnout, and the race has been a favourite of many rally drivers throughout history. Now begins a series of seven rallies on gravel and many exciting challenges.

Flashbacks, car challenges, and Hankook

In Rally Islas Canarias there was a man who rose from the dead, and no, his name is not Jesus, his name is Kalle Rovanperä! You will have to look for a man to show off on the volcanic asphalt for a long time. After performing far below normal this year, the Finn drives the braid of everyone and wins 15 out of 18 special stages. The last time someone was so superior in a WRC race was in the Tour de Corse 2005, where Sébastien Loeb won all the stages. That the Finn should find the flow so suddenly came as a surprise to everyone! The TV commentators, competitors, team leaders and colleagues just shook their heads when asked if they had predicted this, while the main character himself felt that he was not even driving at full speed. Then you are well into the flow zone. So now it will be very exciting to see if he continues this on the gravel in Portugal.

​Rally de Portugal is, as I said, a race that has been on the calendar for a long time, all the top drivers have driven here before, and they know what awaits them unlike the previous race. Most have driven this race several times, some even in double figures, and there is always an advantage with routine in this game here. ​Rally Portugal has been won by Toyota for the past five years, while Hyundai has had to settle for second and third places. And this year's WRC season has consisted of Toyota dominance, where Hyundai has not been able to bring a competitive car to the start. And the big question for everyone is whether they have got their car in better order for this race, or whether Toyota will continue its superiority in Portugal as well. If we are to listen to the rumors, the answer is no, and they say that they are not quite able to figure it out either, because the problem is so complex.

The teams have now been through the first four races of the year with four different surfaces, and now seven gravel rallies await in a row. There have been a number of changes to the cars from last year to this year, and Hyundai chose to only make the most important changes to their last year's model, and instead focus on a new and improved model of their i20 Rally1 car. They first tried this updated version in the Swedish Rally without much success, then dropped it for the Safari Rally, and then used it again in the rally in the Canary Islands, without any particular success either. Now they have said that only this model will be used in all races going forward, but it has also been tested very little on gravel, so I am excited to see how that goes. Competitor Toyota, on the other hand, only rebuilt last year's car according to the new rules, and has won everything this season. So based on what we have now, there is no doubt which has been the smartest. But when Hyundai gets their problems sorted out with the new car, it could be a lot faster than the Toyota is today for all I know. Because they're going to get it sorted out sooner or later, it's just a question of when it happens, and whether I catch it in time for us to get an advantage from it.

Layout, tires and roads

When we first talk about the cars, we also have to go back to the tires and the setup of the cars, because the problems that have been with most drivers this year have been the setup of the car on Hankook tires. They have been driving on Pirelli for so many years that the setup of the car has been set up identically from year to year and it has worked every time with only small adjustments. Now these setups do not work at all, and everyone has had to start over with testing the setup before the races. The regulations for testing in the WRC are strictly regulated by the FIA ​​to keep costs down and ensure fair competition between the teams. Therefore, they are allowed to have a test track of 12km in length within a 10km radius of their registered permanent base, while if testing is to be done outside of this, it MUST be in Europe and the factory teams only have 28 test days during the year. In addition, they get one test day for each factory-nominated driver up to a maximum of 14 days per team. YES YES, the point is that they have little time to figure out all the new things they need to figure out this year, something that is evident at the start of the season.

Regarding the tires for the gravel in Portugal, there is little new information to be found, and in general Hankook has proven to be very solid and durable tires this year. HOWEVER, Hankook's new gravel tire, the Dynapro R213, was used during the Safari Rally Kenya, and almost everyone there had one or more punctures. So the Dynapro R213 was challenged in the rough conditions in Kenya, and during Rally Portugal it can also get pretty rough during the second run through the stages. By then the fine sand is gone and large sharp stones have appeared, so it remains to be seen whether the tires can withstand it better than the "roads" in Kenya. The Dynapro R213 is designed to last better through long, hard stages, and there are fewer reports of rubber peeling off in harsh conditions. So when the time comes that drivers start to get to know the tires from Hankook better, it may prove to be a much better tire than the Pirelli tires. However, in wet conditions, the tire can be more challenging than its predecessor, as the pattern on the Hankook is tighter than on the Pirelli tire, which makes it easier to aquaplan and more difficult to keep the car on the road.

The roads in Rally Portugal are very varied, with a lot of technical and demanding driving conditions. What is common to most of the stages is that there is a little, or a lot, of soft, fine sand on top, which gives little grip for the first drivers. This can make it challenging for the first two or three starters to get proper grip on the ground if the weather is dry and nice, which can result in big time losses in the end. However, if it is wet and rainy, it will have the opposite effect, and the cars in the back will experience more and more slippery conditions.
Generally, all stages are run twice, and on the second run through, the ruts may be so deep that the cars are lifted during service so that they do not hit so hard and damage the car, engine or similar. And on the second run through, it can be an advantage to start first, as the roads get worse and worse after each car that runs, and more large rocks appear. So also in rallying it is difficult to be like Winnie the Pooh.

Race info

The Vodafone Rally de Portugal will run over four days and will consist of 24 stages totaling 344.50 km, divided into 2.94 km on Thursday, 149.42 km on Friday, 122.92 km on Saturday and 72.16 km on Sunday. There are 12 cars registered in the toughest class, 5 from Toyota, 3 from Hyundai and 4 in Ford from M-Sport.
For Hyundai, Thierry Neuville, Ott Tänak and Adrien Fourmaux are driving. For Toyota, these five are driving: Sébastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans, Kalle Rovanperä, Takamoto Katsuta and Sami Pajari. For Ford, these four are the ones who are starting; Gregoire Munster, Josh McErlean, Mārtiņš Sesks and a local driver named Diogo Salvi. A total of 95 cars are entering the Portuguese race.

The rally starts in Figueira da Foz and finishes in Fafe, with a base in Matosinhos near Porto in northern Portugal. The stages pass through both central and northern parts of Portugal, including famous rally areas such as Arganil, Lousã and Fafe. And speaking of Fafe, it is also the name of a speed stage that is run twice on Sunday with the Powerstage and the final stage of the race. This is best known for the famous jump at Pedra Sentada, where the cars fly over 30 meters to a frenzied cheer from a crowd of crazy rally fans.

The main characters of the event

Thierry Neuville was frustrated from the first meter in Rally Islas Canarias, because even though there was a small upturn with 3rd place in Kenya, everything fell apart on the asphalt around the volcano on Gran Canaria. The new car designed for these races after the Safarirally did not work at all. Neuville was very happy with the Spanish rally he and Elfyn Evans drove before the race on the holiday island, but the setup of the car definitely did not suit the Hankook on volcanic asphalt. They struggled with understeer in almost every corner, and the car refused to do what the Belgian wanted. The engineers tried every possible setup that should work and shouldn't work, and they all ended up with the same result, understeer and understeer. If they could have done anything differently, they would have had to change the differentials on the car, and that is not allowed during the race, but then they could have made the car listen to the drivers much better. It all culminated in a puncture on the penultimate stage and the time loss became even greater. Now he is going back to the race where he has four podiums before, but is the car good enough on gravel to fight for a podium again? Because the Belgian has started here 13 times, and since 2017 he has finished fifth at worst, with one win from 2018, two second places and a third place last year as his best result.

Ott Tänak drives fast on all surfaces, but it is on gravel that he feels best. Tänak had exactly the same problem as his teammate Neuville in the previous race, and was frustrated to say the least. He gave up the race almost immediately, but made an honorable attempt to drive fast, even though this was impossible. He is said to feel better on the gravel and sand in Portugal, and Tänak's debut in this race dates back to 2009, when he drove in "standard cars" with four-wheel drive. To date, he has driven this race 13 times, but there has only been one victory. It came in 2019 and that time for Toyota, otherwise second place last year is his second best result. Tänak is not particularly happy with the new car, and says that it has a problem with balance, which has been there from the start. The Estonian has enough speed in it, but have they got the car good enough?

Kalle Rovanperä 's impressive drive in the Canary Islands several times, so I will skip that here. The question now is whether he has cracked the code on the car without the hybrid technology, and that this is where he wants to be in the future? It could happen quickly, because once a light comes on and the good feeling is there, it is easier to find it again on new tests and surfaces. The former world champion has not lost his talent, but has struggled to adapt to the car without hybrid engines and with a new weight distribution after the hybrid batteries were removed. Last year he only drove seven races, but of these he won four, so even with a break and sporadic driving he is fast. The young man from Finland has "only" driven here five times, but in both 2022 and 2023 he won. Last year he drove off the road and in 2021 his races and positions were broken far down the list. If Rovanperä gets a good test beforehand, he could be dangerous here, even though he says he doesn't think the car is quite where he wants it to be on gravel. But he's working hard, because just two days after the overwhelming victory, he was in Portugal to test the gravel setup for the next race. The Finn points out in an interview that nothing from the Canary Islands can compare to the upcoming race. He's taking the good experiences from the "gravel race" Safarirally with him, and is aiming to improve further from there. After the test, he wasn't particularly optimistic, and says they're still working on finding the direction forward rather than fine-tuning it, because the combination of new tires and a car that's now lighter at the rear isn't the best for him right now.

Elfyn Evans at Rally Islas Canarias, and even though a podium finish was what we were betting on, I would have thought he would have been a little closer to Ogier. But even though he pushed to the limit, the fast times did not come, and the focus on the top three was prioritized in terms of points in the World Championship. Evans' story in Portugal started in 2012 with unimpressive results for a few years, and it was only in 2017 that he broke free with a 6th place, and subsequent results were 2-5-1-2-Brutt-6. The victory came in 2021 with a Toyota Yaris WRC without a hybrid, and the following year he came second with a hybrid. So the Briton knows this race with several types of driving styles and will normally be able to assert himself again. Last year he came sixth due to a mega-blunder by his map reader. He managed to forget his notebook at the time control before a stage and had to read notes from a digital backup on his mobile phone, which of course gave them a small loss of time, and in addition they punctured on the same stage. Evans will undoubtedly fight for the podium in Portugal, but he enters this gravel race with somewhat lower self-confidence due to his starting position on Friday, and the fact that he has only been tested on wet surfaces, while dry conditions are predicted for the race itself.

Adrien Fourmaux was the Hyundai driver who did best in the previous rally when Neuville punctured on the penultimate stage. Fourmaux started with a different gearbox and differential than his team-mates Tänak and Neuville, but he wasn't completely happy either. So three out of three drivers were unhappy with the car for the asphalt rally. The Frenchman has driven four editions of Rally Portugal and last year's result of fourth place is his best. Admittedly, we have to mention that this was with a Ford Puma Rally1 car, and they have rarely been as good as the cars from Hyundai and Toyota. Now he is in a Hyundai, with problems at the moment, but he is a talent who should be able to assert himself if he drives flawlessly in a car that works. Whether the team boss wants him to drive sensibly or not, is not yet known, but if he makes a tiny mistake here, you can quickly end up upside down in the car with a big loss of time. Fourmaux drove a national rally in Portugal the first weekend in May, and the roads they drove on were very similar to the ones they will drive on in the WRC race. After the race and tests, the Frenchman has eased the veil a bit and mentioned damper problems in addition to the differentials.

Takamoto Katsuta drove to fourth place in the Rally Islas Canarias and was the slowest Toyota driver. Sami Pajari was also faster than Katsuta, but he eventually went off the road. Katsuta was the only Toyota driver who was not completely familiar with the car, and struggled a bit with the changing conditions in sun, shade and fog. He delivered a solid rally, but that was about it. The youngster from Japan is driving well and sensibly this year, so he could easily surprise one day, and Katsuta has two fourth places from here from 2021 and 2022, while in 2023 he had technical problems with the alternator and had to retire. In 2024 he hit a rock that destroyed the car's suspension, but before the accident Katsuta had the lead in the rally after the first three stages, and he had several top three results on the stages in the race.

Sébastien Ogier was a clear winner in the previous rally, but a young guy from Finland came and outclassed the veteran from France. Thus, the 8-time world champion had to feel thoroughly beaten and settle for second place. There were also some moments where he was unable to fully optimize the performance of the car, and he complained that the car's balance was not quite right on Friday and Saturday morning, but they had this adjusted for the afternoon round. Ogier also admitted that he was not willing to take maximum risks on certain stages, given the phase of his career he is now in. He was starting to get too old and wise as he said, and is not as crazy as in the earlier part of his career. So the question is whether he will follow this into Rally Portugal as well! If he does, it could go both ways, because on the one hand he can avoid mistakes and accidents, while on the other hand he could be run over by the young guy. Ogier has 14 starts in Portugal, 10 podiums and six wins, the last of which was last year. So it's hard to call him anything other than a favorite.

Summary and tips

Vodafone Rally de Portugal is the first gravel rally of the year, as Safarirally is a bit too special to be included in the count, and all drivers need to get a good feel for the car, setup, surface and tires if this is to go fast enough to fight for the win. There have been tests in advance, but little reporting of problems and dissatisfaction apart from known problems with Hyundai, so I have to go with the information I have.
All teams have been tested on both dry and wet roads, so they should come prepared for both types of weather. It is clear that Toyota has, as of today, a better car than Hyundai, and that Ogier, Evans and Rovanperä have 9 wins here before, so I would be somewhat surprised if a Toyota does not win the race. However, the starting position on Friday does not speak in favor of Evans and Rovanperä, who start number one and two. Because if the weather is good, which is currently predicted, the question is how much they lose by driving first and "cleaning" the road, then Ogier, Tänak, Fourmaux and Katsuta will have a better chance of good times, as they will have significantly less fine sand to drive on and thus better grip. I assume that punctures and accidents will stay away, and that the conditions will be dry and nice, and my tip is the following:

WRC at 19:00: Sébastien Ogier Top 3 (2.10)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 19:00: H2H Adrien Fourmaux – Takamoto Katsuta: Takamoto Katsuta wins (2.11)
WRC at 19:00: H2H Kalle Rovanperä – Thierry Neuville: Kalle Rovanperä wins (1.72)
WRC at 19:00: H2H Sébastien Ogier – Thierry Neuville: Sébastien Ogier wins
WRC (1.78) at 19:00: Ott Tänak best Hyundai driver (2.15)
WRC at 19:00: Sébastien Ogier wins (6.00)
WRC at 19:00: Kalle Rovanperä wins (4.24)
WRC at 19:00: Toyota as winning car (1.83)
WRC at 19:00: Sébastien Ogier over 1.5 stage wins (1.90)