WRC Ueno Rally del Paraguay 28-08-2025

Rally Finland turned out to be as spectacular and cool as we imagined, and with fast speed stages and lots of jumps, Kalle Rovanperä finally managed to win the race on home soil. But now we're off to South America and the penultimate gravel rally in a series of seven. Rally Paraguay is a brand new rally, and the teams have limited information from previous races. The rally, which takes place in the city of Encarnación, located on the Paraná River, close to the border with Argentina, is one of Paraguay's most beautiful cities and promises a mix of fast stages and more difficult technical sections through dense vegetation. So who do we think will come out on top in this debut event in the WRC?

From fast to not so fast

In Rally Finland we got the most a rally can offer, Oliver Solberg who won in Estonia was back in his Rally2 car, but struggled with the driving. And as if that wasn't enough, there was a stone or something in the deep ruts that meant that the two inside the car were just spectators. The car was thrown into the air and to the side, then did a somersault down into the ditch, and there they were already on the first day with a wrecked car. The Hyundais were also punished severely, first by Tänak driving into a tree, then by the fact that in a stressed situation at the finish after the exit, he had bumped into an official when driving from there. This resulted in a 5 minute time penalty and the race for the top positions was ruined. Neuville and Fourmaux hit the same stone in the road on Saturday and punctured, so that both of them were out of the close fight as well. Home favourite Kalle Rovanperä found his rhythm surprisingly quickly and won ahead of four other Toyota teammates, so that the overall standings in the World Championship suddenly became very even between Evans, Rovanperä, Ogier and Tänak. Only 13 points separate the four before the autumn races start!

Now, as I said, the whole circus is moving to South America and Paraguay, and this is the first time Paraguay has hosted a round of the FIA ​​World Rally Championship. The roads in the Rally del Paraguay consist mainly of gravel surfaces, and it is worth noting some peculiar characteristics of this particular part of Paraguay, because the most dominant type of surface on the roads is a red laterite gravel (soil). It is called “tierra colorada” locally – a reddish, clayey and iron-rich soil type that is very common in southern Paraguay and southern Brazil. When dry, it provides a relatively soft and fast surface with good grip, but when it gets wet, it becomes extremely slippery and muddy, almost like clay, and very demanding for both grip and braking performance. This creates great contrasts between dry and wet conditions – which often changes the car setup and tire choice drastically. A bit like the Safari Rally in Kenya for those who remember. A local rally driver says the following: “The road conditions here when it rains are total chaos. It will be a real disaster, and the show will be over; "It wouldn't be good for the organizers, the drivers or the fans."

The precursor to this WRC race is the Trans Itapúa, and in 2024 several drivers had to withdraw from the race after rain made some roads impassable, and one stage was even cancelled due to slippery surfaces and safety risks. So let's hope for sunshine! The Trans Itapúa Rally is known as the "Red Dirt Rally" because of the Itapúa region's characteristic red dirt roads, and although the surface is mostly soft and fast, deep ruts are expected for second passes and sudden changes in the surface that will keep the excitement going throughout the weekend. Because once the hardest surface cracks, the road quickly disintegrates.

With a warm welcome and a new set of stages unfamiliar to most in the field, Paraguay is a leap into the unknown – and the perfect race for surprises. What makes Paraguay unique is its mix of high-speed stages, varying grip and narrow margins. The gravel surface can break up, especially on the second run-throughs, creating deep ruts and punishing anyone who misjudges braking or lines.
Visibility can also be a factor – fine dust hangs in the air in dry conditions, while summer showers can quickly turn things around. Add in the unfamiliarity of the rally and limited data for teams and engineers, and Rally del Paraguay becomes a true all-round test of adaptability. Crews who learn quickly and stay flexible will thrive. Those who push too early or underestimate the conditions will pay the price.

Race info

The Ueno Rally del Paraguay will be run over three days with 19 special stages, a total of 335.22 km on gravel. Based in Encarnación, the event will start on Thursday with a shakedown and ceremonial start, before eight stages are run on Friday. On Saturday, seven more stages will be run and on Sunday, four stages will be run. All the special stages will be run east, west and south of Encarnación. For Toyota, Evans, Ogier, Rovanperä, Katsuta and Pajari will drive, while Hyundai will field its three usual drivers, Tänak, Neuville and Fourmaux. M-Sport Ford will field only two drivers this time, which are Munster and McErlean.

Driver info

Thierry Neuville ultimately failed to challenge the Toyota drivers in Finland, not because of his speed, but a puncture on the front tyre ruined his chances of a podium finish, and he had to settle for 6th place in the end. He now realises that he is no longer in the title race after the race in Finland, and is only focusing on chasing victories. In Paraguay, Neuville is expected to be a challenger for victory, but he is probably not the favourite even though the Hyundai has proven fast in similar rallies. He will try to exploit his starting position on Friday and that it will give him better grip on the red gravel. Hyundai's problem is punctures, because they have had much more punctures than their competitors. So after Finland they have started testing to see what is the cause of this, but is there enough time to find an answer for this race? I doubt it, and it could be the Belgian's track again.

Ott Tänak , who led the World Championship by one point ahead of Finland, ended up having a race he would rather forget. As mentioned, he drove off the road at high speed, hitting a tree and damaging the cooling system. In a stressful situation after the finish, he wanted to keep the car moving, and drove away a little early so that he hit an official and incurred a time penalty of over five minutes for this. In the end, he finished tenth and dropped to fourth place in the Drivers' Championship. In Paraguay, Tänak will probably be aggressive from the start again, as he has shown earlier in the season, but also use the experience from previous races in South America where the roads are often unpredictable and demanding. Tänak is one of the favorites to win the race, if the punctures stay away.

Adrien Fourmaux showed encouraging speed on some stages in Finland (he was fastest on SS8 and SS10), but also had his rally ruined by a puncture, like his teammate Neuville. His goal in Paraguay will be to build on his strong performance in Finland, complete the entire race and collect valuable World Championship points for Hyundai. His contract expires after this season, so he will have to both perform and show stability. But I think he wants more than he can handle here, and the car has proven to be somewhat unstable in terms of tires and punctures.

Elfyn Evans delivered a solid performance in Finland with a fourth place, but was unhappy with the Power Stage on Sunday. “It’s a really good result for the team, but the final day didn’t go quite as planned,” Evans said after the finish. Even with a disappointing fourth place, he regained the World Championship lead after Tänak failed to score much. In Paraguay, Evans will once again start first on the road, and he admits that he will have to “take risks” to fight for the points. He is not optimistic about his own future, but he reiterates that he will do his best.

Sami Pajari impressed in Finland with three stage wins, and a strong fifth place in the end. He focused on securing the result rather than taking chances on the last day, and his boss had given the message that the car SHOULD finish. Pajari is looking forward to Paraguay because no one has driven there before, and then he feels that they are all more equally prepared. Thus, previous notes and knowledge will not give a competitive advantage, so that there may again be opportunities for a few more top times for the youngster. The "problem" for Pajari is that he is in a learning year, so it is more important for him to complete all the speed stages than the more experienced drivers. Thus, tenths and seconds can go against him. Pajari has also driven a national rally with a private rally car and played around a bit after Rally Finland, so he has kept his driving skills up to date.

Kalle Rovanperä was superb in Finland, leading from day one and driving to victory 39 seconds ahead of his nearest competitor. According to Kalle himself, the victory was “a fantastic feeling”, after several years of hard work. The Finnish champion set a new record with his 10th stage win in the rally and an insane average speed of 129.9 km/h. In Paraguay, on similarly fast gravel roads, he will probably attack in the same way. Rovanperä is also ready to fight for the World Championship title, and is now only three points behind Evans in the summary, so a good performance in Paraguay will be crucial. We have now seen that he can do the fast sections, but is he as comfortable on the technical ones? The protagonist himself is more positive than he has been for a long time, so it is possible that he has figured something out now.

Takamoto Katsuta completed Toyota's dominance in Finland with a strong second place. He grew up on the roads in Finland and learned most of his rallying skills there. After the race, he especially thanked his Finnish fans and teammates: "We promised each other before the rally that Kalle and I would stand on the podium together, so I'm very happy with this." In Paraguay, everything will be new, but with the driving and the result in Finland as a background, there is reason for optimism. Before Paraguay, Katsuta will go to Portugal to test, while during the holidays he has been playing around with drifting, among other things. So we can believe that playfulness will follow him into Rally Paraguay.

Sébastien Ogier took third place in Finland, but he admitted that it was not a perfect weekend. It took time to find the right car setup, but in the end he got the car up to speed and secured the podium. After the race he confirmed that he is now going for a new World Championship title, and will race in all races until the end of the season. The Frenchman is third in the World Championship, only 13 points behind Evans and that with three races less. In Paraguay, Ogier will continue to exploit Toyota's strengths, and his enormous experience in new races will be able to contribute to another top position.

Breaking news

Reconnaissance started early on Tuesday morning, and most of the WRC drivers already left early for South America. However, for unknown reasons, Sébastien Ogier and Ott Tänak left later than the others, and encountered some adverse travel issues. According to information received by RallyJournal.com , Ogier and Tänak's original flight from Frankfurt in Germany to Buenos Aires in Argentina was cancelled, significantly delaying the trip. A new flight was booked, but they arrived late on Monday evening local time. They took a private plane from Buenos Aires to Encarnacion, but their schedule will still be extremely tight as they only arrived in Encarnacion early on Tuesday morning local time. Since the run-through started early on Tuesday, this means they will get very little sleep. Added to that is the fatigue caused by the time difference! Ogier and Tänak will not have time to recover from jet lag at all, and this could affect their concentration during the note-taking and run-through, which is critical, as all the notes have to be rewritten during the race.

Summary and tips

Ueno Rally del Paraguay is a newcomer to the WRC, and all the drivers are debuting here. I think the race will be a mix of several races, both Argentina and Chile have similarities, in addition to some high speed like in Estonia and Finland. We have Rovanperä with more confidence, Ogier with a new focus on the World Championship summary, Tänak who has been fighting at the top all season and Neuville who is now only focusing on individual races. These can all perform on the results list, but also take one or more stage wins. The weather will be a big factor here, because if there is precipitation, this race will be chaotic and completely unpredictable. It is predicted to be fine on Friday and Saturday, but on Sunday it looks scary, The heaviest precipitation is predicted to come after the finish, but we all know how the weather behaves. This is taken into account in the calculations here and I trust the most experienced in the field.

So my main tip in this race is:

WRC at 08:00: Sébastien Ogier top 3 (1.60)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 13:00: H2H Adrien Fourmaux – Takamoto Katsuta: Takamoto Katsuta wins (2.30) 2/10
WRC at 13:00: H2H Thierry Neuville – Adrien Fourmaux: Thierry Neuville wins (1.65) 4/10
WRC at 13:00: H2H Kalle Rovanperä – Thierry Neuville: Kalle Rovanperä wins (1.75) 3/10
WRC at 13:00: Ott Tänak leads day 1 (2.65) 1/10
(If there are odds on stage winners, this will appear in our odds list)

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