WRC Secto Rally Finland 31-07-2025

After a surprising and spectacular Rally Estonia, the next round is now your turn – namely the Secto Rally Finland in Jyväskylä. Rally Finland is often called the Grand Prix of the rally world, with its extremely fast gravel roads and gigantic jumps. The notes have to be perfect here as well as in Estonia, because one mistake over a blind spot or too big a jump can send you straight into the woods. Drivers like Elfyn Evans, Ott Tänak and Sébastien Ogier are all drivers who have won this race more than once. Can they do it again?

High speeds and big jumps

In the previous rally, Rally Estonia, we witnessed a huge surprise when it came to the winner of the race. Petter Solberg's son Oliver had been given the opportunity to drive a Toyota Yaris WRC, and from stage two, which he surprisingly won, he never looked back and drove away from all of his experienced competitors all weekend. The victory created surprise and joy in the rally community and the opponents praised the driving throughout the rally. In the fight behind Oliver Solberg, as expected, Ott Tänak was the closest. In advance, I had Tänak and Rovanperä as favorites, but only one of them came true, because as in previous rallies this season, the Finn disappoints us with his problems. The one who fought closest with Tänak, and ultimately took the last podium place, was his teammate in Hyundai, Thierry Neuville.

Rally Finland will be quite similar to Rally Estonia, but there will probably be higher average speeds and more BIG jumps. It requires absolute confidence in the notes, the car and the courage to keep the gas pedal at the bottom over every jump and hilltop. In this rally you never fight at the top as a rookie, and none of the Rally1 drivers have not driven here before either, so they know what they are getting into. Here it is important to leave your brain at home if you want to fight for top times.

There was a change at the top of the championship itself after Rally Estonia, where Ott Tänak overtook Evans by one point and now starts first on the road. In the high-speed Rally Finland, that is not so critical, and the Estonian has won here before from first starting position. Although it can rain suddenly here, the road surface is usually coarse-grained gravel that handles high speeds well, regardless of the weather conditions. The first starters will have to expect a little road sweeping, but with good driving on Friday they should be able to stay in the top three to five, maybe even better. This will primarily apply to Tänak and Evans. When Ogier, Rovanperä and Neuville arrive, the party will normally be very good.

The tires are also critical here after puncture problems at most races earlier this summer, especially in Acropolis. But if Hankook can provide even more stability on its gravel tires, it will help the drivers considerably. For Estonia, they changed the stem of their tires, which seemed to work much better. Because a tire failure at such speeds can be catastrophic, and Hankook is fully aware of this. That's why they are not only working hard to improve stability, but also grip. Because that's exactly what Neuville and Rovanperä have been complaining about a lot this year, and when you jump sideways into a corner at 100 km/h, it's good to be sure that the tires will pull you back into the corner instead of sliding straight into the forest!

Race info

Secto Rally Finland is run over four days with 20 special stages, a total of 307.22 km on gravel. Based in Jyväskylä, the start is on Thursday evening with the Harju Sprint (SSS), before Friday's stages Laukaa, Sarikaas, Myhinpää, Päijälä, Ruuhimäki are run twice and Thursday's public stage Harju is run once more. On Saturday, four new stages are run twice and on Sunday, the legendary Ouninpohja is run twice. All the special stages are run in the forests around Jyväskylä. For Toyota, Evans, Ogier, Rovanperä, Katsuta and Pajari are driving, while Hyundai is fielding its three usual drivers Tänak, Neuville and Fourmaux. M-Sport Ford is fielding the same three as in Estonia, which are Munster, McErlean and Sesks.

Driver info

Thierry Neuville had a somewhat troubled weekend in Estonia, but still put in a good effort and was rewarded with a third place. He was given a 10-second time penalty for a false start on Friday and ended up 23.1 seconds behind Ott Tänak and 48.3 seconds behind the winner Solberg. In Finland he has a better starting position than his teammate, but in Finland it doesn't mean as much as in the more technical rallies. The roads here require extreme precision on the notes, something Neuville has experience with over many years. Without a time penalty or punctures he can definitely fight for the lead again, especially if he trusts the Hankook tyres. In Estonia he showed that he has the pace, but he needs to be flawless to be able to beat faster competitors like Tänak and Ogier. During tests in Finland after Rally Estonia, he has been working on the set-up of his Hyundai, so it will be exciting to see if he is fast enough for another podium. I have faith in the Belgian to win more stages.

Ott Tänak , Estonia's own hero, delivered strongly and fought hard for the win, but in the end had to settle for second place, 25.2 seconds behind winner Oliver Solberg. The points haul on home soil ensured that Tänak has now taken over the World Championship lead by a point. This means that in Finland he starts first on the road, which means sweeping the road on Friday. This is usually a big disadvantage, but as mentioned earlier not as much here as in other rallies. Tänak has also tested at Hyundai's base in Finland and shown that the car is ready for high speeds. After several races in a row in the lead and good self-confidence, he is one of the clear medal candidates. The raw speed in Finland suits him just as perfectly as in Estonia, but he still has to fight against some fast drivers like Ogier and Neuville. Tänak has won this race three times before.

Adrien Fourmaux drove a solid Rally Estonia and finished in a respectable fifth place, 1 minute and 33 seconds behind the winner. A hard landing on a jump on Saturday ruined his chances of a better position in the summary. There he destroyed parts of the front wing that helps him press the wheels into the ground at high speeds, and without this you will get much less grip. In Finland he will have much the same roads to drive on as in Estonia, and if he can avoid the same technical problems, he can fight for places around the top four or five. Fourmaux tested on a par with his teammates in Finland last week, but a driver error caused him to go out and end up on his roof. So the question is what that does to his confidence in the race itself.

Elfyn Evans also drove smartly in Estonia. Despite having to clear the road as the first, he managed to keep up the pace all day and secured sixth place. He only lost 40 seconds being a "sweeper", and smart choices on Friday meant that he scored a good amount of championship points. Now Evans has tested in Finland and said that the speeds are reminiscent of Estonia, but that the character of the roads is quite different. He has won Rally Finland twice, in 2021 and 2023, so he knows what it takes here. His experience on these roads is extensive, but he must be patient as he has been in the past, and attack when it suits him best. This year he starts second on the road, and the time loss on Friday should be less than in Estonia. He can possibly take home a stage win here.

Kalle Rovanperä had a solid but disappointing performance in Estonia, finishing fourth, 55.6 seconds behind the winner who drove a similar car to himself. The Finn also failed to make friends with the tyres and lost a lot of time on Friday and Saturday, and although the pace increased on Sunday, he was unable to pull away from Neuville in the fight for the podium. Now he comes to his home event motivated, but realistic enough to say that there are no magic tricks to solve his problems. As a double world champion and triple winner of Rally Estonia, he knows how fast the car can go, and Ouninpohja and the other speed stages are his real home turf. Rovanperä himself says that Rally Finland always feels extra special, and that in recent years he has had good speed, and with new ideas from the tests ahead, he hopes to do well this time. Rovanperä has a second place as his best result here, and I would be surprised if it goes better than that now too.

Takamoto Katsuta got off to a relatively good start in Estonia, but had to retire on Saturday with technical problems that they have not wanted to comment on in retrospect. That doesn't give him much confidence in the car, but the Japanese driver is still ready for Finland. His background here is promising, as he grew up and trained as a rally driver in Finland, and took a podium in 2023. His familiarity with the Finnish roads may give him an advantage in addition to starting position, but he has some work to do in terms of top times. However, it is precisely such roads that can unleash his full potential, and if Toyota fixes the technical problems from Estonia, Katsuta can ensure top times in Thursday's sprint and Friday's stages. One stage win gives a nice 3.00 in odds.

Sébastien Ogier did not drive Rally Estonia, and initially it was not intended that he would drive in Finland either. But he is last year's winner and would like to try to win the race again. Ogier himself has said that it will be fun to return to Finland and try for another victory, but there is just as much speculation about whether he will go for another World Championship title since he is so well placed in the summary. He himself says that it is not an issue, but few people believe that he does. This will be his first really fast gravel rally in 2025, but his form is good when you look at his previous results this year, in addition, he has also been tested here before the race. Even though he did not participate in Estonia, his routine makes him one of the favorites. He has the security in the car, the tires and the confidence, and will fight for stage wins and the top three in this race without any technical problems.

Summary and tips

Rally Finland is the fastest rally of the WRC season – a demanding challenge where regional drivers often go fast. In this race, it is natural to keep an extra eye on the drivers from the Finland/Estonia region, such as Ott Tänak, Kalle Rovanperä, Sami Pajari and Martin Sesks. They all have their home fans behind them and know the roads like the back of their hands. But we must not forget experienced drivers like Elfyn Evans and Sébastien Ogier. With solid experience from this event, they can be at the forefront if they avoid mechanical problems.

The third drivers in the field can also offer surprises if they are lucky, like Adrien Fourmaux and Takamoto Katsuta, guys who showed high pace at times in Estonia and can outcompete several of the drivers if the car holds. But as with Oliver Solberg in Estonia, I don't believe in any victory from these, still they can surprise and I can be wrong, like I did with Oliver.

What I see as very likely in Rally Finland is that Sébastien Ogier will win some stages, and that the victory will again be between Tänak and Ogier. I have lost a bit of faith in Kalle Rovanperä, but the bookmakers have him as the favorite. I am not there. But they give us good odds that Ogier will win more than 1.5 stages, and I can't imagine what will prevent that. As third on the road on Friday, he will not have a much worse road than Rovanperä and Neuville, and Ogier has generally been faster than both of them this year.
So my main tip in this race is:

WRC at 08:00: Sébastien Ogier over 1.5 stage wins (2.00)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 08:00: H2H Sébastien Ogier – Thierry Neuville: Sébastien Ogier wins (1.63)
WRC at 08:00: H2H Sébastien Ogier – Elfyn Evans: Sébastien Ogier wins (1.66)
WRC at 08:00: Sébastien Ogier best Toyota driver (3.20)
WRC at 08:00: Takamoto Katsuta over 0.5 stage wins (3.00)
WRC at 08:00: Adrien Fourmaux over 0.5 stage wins (3.00)
WRC at 08:00: Thierry Neuville over 1.5 stage wins (2.30)
WRC at 08:00: Sébastien Ogier leads after Friday (5.00)

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