WRC Safari Rally Kenya 2026

Safari Rally – WRC
Start: Thursday 12 March at 06.00
Elfyn Evans top 3 (1.70)
Stake: 5/10 units

Three reasons for the game

• Elfyn Evans has three podiums in the last four years in Safarirally.
• Evans is one of the most stable drivers of all time in recent years.
• Elfyn Evans is a slight favorite to win the race.

Safari Rally Kenya

The 2026 Safari Rally WRC will be held in Kenya from 12-15 March with a more compact layout around Naivasha and 20 special stages totalling 350 km. Toyota enters as the clear favourite after dominating the start of the season and winning every Safari event since 2021. Elfyn Evans is the clear favourite, while team-mates Sébastien Ogier, Takamoto Katsuta and outsider Oliver Solberg can challenge. Hyundai is entering more defensively, but after ten days of testing with the updated i20 N Rally1 they could be dangerous if the rally becomes unpredictable. The weather is expected to be mainly warm and dry, but local rain showers can quickly change conditions and make strategy and experience crucial. With this in mind, I think routine will be crucial and Elfyn Evans will drive to the podium.

Rationale for Safari Rally Kenya 2026

The 2026 Safari Rally WRC will be held in Kenya from 12-15 March, with a new, more concentrated layout around Lake Naivasha, and without the traditional start in Nairobi. The rally consists of 20 special stages and 350.52 competition kilometres.

Toyota favorite

The favourite picture is heavily coloured by Toyota's early season dominance and previous results in Safarirally. Toyota World Rally Team comes in having taken all the podiums in both Monte-Carlo and Sweden, and they have won every Safari edition since their WRC comeback in 2021.
This points to Elfyn Evans as a narrow favourite, with Sébastien Ogier and Takamoto Katsuta as the most likely threats internally, and Oliver Solberg as the outsider card. The speed and confidence are there for Oliver, but Safari punishes arrogance, as it did with Katsuta last year. Because Oliver went off the road in both Monte-Carlo and Sweden without being punished too harshly. It is not certain that the desert in Kenya will let him get away as cheaply if he goes off again.

Hyundai on the defensive before the start

The Hyundai World Rally Team enters the weekend with a more defensive message: “Clean event”, points and reliability first, but with a very relevant point, 10 days of testing since Sweden on rough gravel and tarmac, and a stated belief that the i20 N Rally1 “Evo” can withstand the beating it will now take. That makes Hyundai the most likely “outsider” player if weather, punctures and time penalties make the Safari a lottery. Last year they took both second and third here with Tänak and Neuville.

The weather

The weather forecast for Friday–Sunday in the Naivasha area points to mostly dry and warm, but with an increased risk of showers on Saturday afternoon. In the Nairobi area, there is also a chance of a more thunderstorm-like afternoon picture. It is a classic Safari scenario: Most of the weekend could be about dust and “fesh-fesh” sand, but one local wall of rain could turn stages and tire strategy around in minutes, just as both Toyota and Hyundai management and most drivers are warning.

Strategy and strategy

A classic Safari paradox is that the “right” strategy can look slow on TV: both Toyota and Hyundai drivers implicitly describe having to choose where to attack and where to hold back. When Hyundai also highlights that in Sweden they struggled with grip/confidence in low grip, but spent the weekend testing and learning about the EVO chassis, it is a clear signal that they will prioritize stability in setup and tire window over wild driving.

On the Toyota side, there is a tactical backdrop to the points system, where bonus points on Sunday (Super Sunday) and on the Power Stage, in addition to the points for the overall position (25–17–15 …). At Safarirally, this could invite a two-part weekend: “survive” Friday/Saturday, and then attack Sunday and the Power Stage if the total is under control.

Conclusion

With this as a starting point I think it's all about driving with your head, so routine is key. One man who has been the most consistent of all in recent years is Toyota's Elfyn Evans. He won here last year, came fourth in 2024, third in 2023 and second in 2022. I have faith that he will end up on the podium again and recommend Elfyn Evans' top 3 as the bet of this round.

Read more about WRC Safari Rally Kenya 2026 here

Read the analysis from the previous Safari Rally Kenya here