WRC Safari Rally Kenya 20-03-2025

Safari Rally Kenya, or simply Safarirally, is one of the most challenging rallies on the WRC calendar. Many of the drivers would probably say that it is the world's most difficult rally! Safarirally is the only World Rally Championship rally in Africa and was first held in 1953, but has struggled a bit with safety and funding over the years. Then in 2003 the race was taken off the calendar due to funding problems, and it would be almost 20 years before it was back in the heat, because until the 2020 season they got new confidence, but like everything else it was cancelled due to the Corona pandemic. Thus, 2021 became the first Safarirally on the WRC calendar after a 19-year absence in the most prestigious company. Now we are here again.

Changes, the race and the challenges

There has been talk of slightly different changes, rule changes and a change of tyre supplier in the first two races this year, and it continues here. Hyundai made a lot of changes to the car for Svenskerally, which they thought would make the car even faster and better. They didn't want to go into detail about what it was, but it was about weight distribution and set-up on the car, among other things. Unfortunately, this turned out to be a bit unfortunate in Sweden and both Neuville and Tänak struggled with understeer in the first few days. In addition, Tänak had engine problems on Saturday that they couldn't get sorted out, so he drove many of the speed stages with less engine power. This was unfortunately the direct reason why our main bet didn't go in, but that's how it is in this sport. It's not just the performances of the individual drivers, but also the performances of the teams, the tyres, the car, starting positions, the weather, etc. that have to work out for us to get a bet in.

Safari rally is a tough race for both the driver and the map reader inside the car, but also the car. The roads it is driven on are not really much like roads as we think of them. Some of the roads have just come into being as cars have driven where it is passable, on grass, over plains and streams, so that it has become a "road" along the way. And they are not maintained at all if they are damaged by the weather, so it jumps and bounces here and there, there are deep ruts, challenging water obstacles and fesh-fesh sand that make it extra demanding. And when some crazy rally drivers come and drive at 150-200 km/h on these "roads", it takes a toll on the cars and the equipment. Therefore, the cars are raised a little extra so that they don't hit the ground on all the bumps and rocks that they drive over, and they often put extra "pipes" on the air intake from the engine and up on the roof to avoid water in the engine when they drive over streams and other water obstacles. In addition, the weather can go from scorching heat to torrential rain in a matter of minutes, so there is no shortage of challenges in this race.

Due to the rough conditions here, Hyundai has chosen to go back to the "old" car they drove in Monte-Carlo because they trust it more to withstand these conditions than the one they used in Sweden. They also justify it by saying that the new changes are more for upcoming gravel races and asphalt rallies. Whether these are explanations or excuses, we do not know yet. Toyota, on the other hand, trusts the cars they have driven for a while and does much the same as before. In any case, they have had as much leeway as one can have, with first and second place both in Monte-Carlo and in Sweden.

Toyota has also dominated this race in the past, so they have clearly found the formula for what their cars can handle in this rough rally. Looking back at the results from 2021 to 2024, there is no doubt which brand has the best chances. In 2021, Toyota came in 1st and 2nd place, in 2022 they took all four top positions, and in 2023 they did exactly the same, while last year they took 1st, 2nd and 4th place. So the best position another car brand has had here is 3rd place for Hyundai with Ott Tänak and a 3rd place for Ford last year with Adrien Fourmaux.

Then there are the tires again, because that has been the big question mark at the start of this season. Hankook of course has faith in its own products, and in Monte-Carlo they were approved and that's what happened, but in Sweden there were mixed reviews. Some things were good, like how much they could withstand, because so far this year there have been almost no punctures, and Hankook is probably much better there than Pirelli was. But in Sweden there was a lot of talk about poor grip and grip, so here they still have a ways to go. Among other things, Rovanperä did not get the combination between tires and setup on the car in Sweden, so he did not have the conditions to fight for the win. He did not do this in Monte-Carlo either. But now it is a new race, new tires and new opportunities. Again they are starting with completely new tires that they have no idea how they will work in this rally. Because all the testing has been done in Europe and not in similar conditions as in Africa. But if they are like in the previous two races, they will hopefully be durable in terms of punctures. I think the teams will probably choose to drive with two spare wheels here anyway.

The race, drivers and surface

Over four days in Kenya, 384.86 km of special stages will be driven, divided into 12.91 km on Thursday, 159.06 km on Friday, 147.02 km on Saturday and 65.87 km on Sunday. 10 cars are entered in the toughest class, four from Toyota, three from Hyundai and three from Ford from M-Sport.
For Hyundai, Thierry Neuville, Ott Tänak and Adrien Fourmaux are driving. For Toyota, these four are driving: Elfyn Evans, Kalle Rovanperä, Takamoto Katsuta and Sami Pajari. For Ford, these three are at the start; Gregoire Munster, Josh McErlean and Jourdan Serderidis.

The race is run on the savannahs around Naivasha and finishes on Sunday in the area with the right name for the right race; Hell's Gate National Park.
I mentioned fesh-fesh sand earlier, and it is a type of extremely fine, powdery sand found in desert areas like here on the savannahs. It looks like hard-packed soil, but is actually a loose layer of dust and microscopic sand particles. So when the rally cars drive over fesh-fesh, it can behave like deep snow or mud and make driving conditions very challenging. And at 150+ km/h it can be a bit tricky to lose grip! But it must be said that most of the drivers here have done this race before and know the challenges, so we'll see if that helps.

So let's go through the best drivers

Thierry Neuville

Thierry Neuville has not convinced so far this year, which I did not expect before the start of the season. There was a lot of chaos after the world championship title and the focus has not been on what was going to happen in front of him. But if he is to fight for precious metal this year too, he must start delivering consistently good results. With a 6th place in Monte_Carlo and 3rd place in Sweden, it is at least going in the right direction. Neuville struggled with the rhythm and safety of the tires in Monte-Carlo, while in Sweden he did not find the right setup on the car until the last half of Saturday. Now there is a new setup again with new tires, so will he cope with it? He also speaks in a defensive direction where he believes Toyota has benefited from more testing on the new tires because they are entering more cars and thus getting more test kilometers. So even before the start he is negative. In 2021 he had to break the Safarirally due to the rear suspension being damaged, in 2022 he was No. 5 almost 11 minutes behind the winner, while in 2023 he cheated with the inspection of the course and was thrown out of the race before it had started, and last year he was No. 5 again, just over 10 minutes behind the winner.

Ott Tanak

Ott Tänak has had a decent start to the first two rallies of the season. A 5th place in Monte-Carlo and a 4th place in Sweden are perfectly fine with the problems he has had. Of course, the exit in Monte-Carlo is not going to happen, but it happens sometimes in this sport. I think Tänak is probably more upset that he doesn't get the car the way he wants until the race is almost over. He drove a day and a half in both races that have passed before the setup improved, while he had engine problems on day two in Sweden. Tänak has also driven here before, and in 2021 he was No. 3, in 2022 it ended with a broken race because the servo was broken, in 2023 it was 6th place and last year he was No. 8, 21 minutes behind the winner after hitting a rock on Friday which forced him to retire. He started again on Saturday with a time penalty, but was then out of the top battle. The Estonian was also not happy with the test roads they had in Portugal before this race, so he demanded a new location which meant the entire team moved to the south of Spain to test there instead.

Kalle Rovanpera

Kalle Rovanperä has "struggled" to drive rally again after the year off. Despite some problems adapting to the rally car again, he has results that are far from bad. 4th place in Monte-Carlo and 5th place in Sweden are completely OK if you disregard the expectations of someone who has become world champion twice. In his defense, he came back in a year where new tires came, the hybrid engine disappeared and other new things that he has to take into account in his assessments as a driver. This is not easy even for those who drove all the races last year. He is struggling most to adjust the car so that it suits his driving style on the new tires. Will Safarirally be the opportunity he has been waiting for, or will he not find it here either? He was No. 6 in 2021, won in 2022, took 2nd place in 2023 and won again last year. Can he do it again? I'm just as unsure as he is, and even though he may be driving the best car, his confidence is at a minimum with the Hankook tires, so I don't think a win is within reach.

Elfyn Evans

Elfyn Evans has impressed me this year, and it is clear that it has helped with a little less pressure on the Briton. Last year he was the only one who drove all the races for Toyota, and a lot was expected of him. This of course affected a lot of his performance when the pressure was so great. This year he has brought along two more drivers who are driving full season and who can help score points, so that Evans can drive more relaxed. This has shown in the form of results, where he was No. 2 in Monte-Carlo and won in Sweden. He is clearly leading the WRC championship, and if he continues to drive like this he will become world champion this year. He has varying results here in Kenya, with 10th place in 2021, 2nd place in 2022, 3rd place in 2023 and 4th place last year after two punctures. Can Hankook be more reliable so that he avoids the punctures this year and the victory comes?

Adrien Fourmaux

Adrien Fourmaux switched from Ford to Hyundai before this season and already impressed in Monte-Carlo with a third place. While in Sweden he got a little too hot in the top end and drove faster than he could handle. It ended well in the snow and he had to come forward with the shovel and a lot of help from the public to get back on the road. In Safari Rally Kenya he has driven twice and in 2021 he came in 5th place, while last year he came in 3rd. There has been a lot of talk about and with Fourmaux after Svenskerally, due to a fine of NOK 120,000,- he was imposed because he used a swear word in the interview right after a stage when he was somewhat dissatisfied with his own performance. This has of course become a battle between the teams and drivers against the FIA ​​afterwards, so the question is how much energy this takes and has taken before Safarirally. In addition, Fourmaux will also have to adapt to a new car, new tires and a new setup again.

Takamoto Katsuta

We didn't mention Takamoto Katsuta at the Swedish Rally, but we should have. Katsuta impressed in Sweden with a 2nd place in the end, even if it came a little because of problems with Neuville and Tänak, it's still impressive. I probably wouldn't have tipped him for the top 3 in Sweden today either. But on a surface other than snow, he's someone to consider in your assessments. Katsuta was scrapped by Toyota at last year's Rally Chile and was way down then, but with a lot of help from teammates like Rovanperä he has turned it all around into something positive and really delivered above expectations several times after the scrap. When it comes to the Safari Rally Kenya he debuted with an impressive 2nd place in 2021, while in the following years he was No. 3 in 2022, No. 4 in 2023 and No. 2 again last year. Impressive streak, but it must be mentioned that several of these years were spent driving at 95% to gain experience and get to the finish line. When the biggest guys were driving at their best and had problems with punctures etc., Katsuta came along and happily took one place at a time up the results list. Now he will also be driving at his best, so we will see how it goes. At least now he has the routine, the flow and the confidence.

Summary

It is not easy to predict what will happen in this rally, but we have some things to deal with based on what I have written above here. The uncertain moments are; new tires that we do not know how will work, the road standard on the first run and not least how the roads hold up on the second run, we have also been there. Because if someone suddenly gets torrential rain, they will of course have a big backside, because the fesh-fesh sand is tough when dry, but when wet it can become like slippery mud and provide very poor grip. We know the starting positions on days one and two, as they run according to the overall list in the WRC, where the leader starts first, second place as no. 2, etc. Toyota has the upper hand, while Hyundai is chasing. While Ford does not have good enough drivers to make any difference.

What will we end up with in the roughest rally race of the year?

I believe that Hankook has managed to come up with very solid tyres here too, so that we will have few punctures. And I choose to believe that the weather will remain dry most of the time, but that the high humidity at night will give the first starters better grip because the fesh-fesh sand binds better with a little moisture, and this bodes well for the first starters. We also know that Toyota has dominated here for the last four years, and in the first two races this year, so it would be unwise to assume that they will not do so again. Toyota will enter four cars, but we will not put much weight on Pajari as he is there to gain more experience, but a top 5 position should be within reach if those in front have a little trouble.

We are then left with three Toyota drivers, two of whom have excelled a little extra this year as Rovanperä has struggled a bit. Rovanperä is tipped as the favorite by the bookmakers followed by the two Hyundai drivers Tänak and Neuville, but I don't think either of them will win this year. Hyundai has also struggled, and is vacillating between old car, new car, old car, engine problems, understeer and a lot of uncertainty. With these challenges and Hyundai's historical results here, I don't think they will be in the lead in the end. I think the victory will once again be between Evans and Katsuta, with the gut feeling for the latter. But based on the information I have, I still choose to play a main bet that is somewhat "safer", and the main bet is therefore:

WRC at 11:00: Elfyn Evans Top 3 (2.25)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 11:00: H2H Elfyn Evans – Thierry Neuville: Elfyn Evans to win (2.40)
WRC at 11:00: H2H Adrien Fourmaux – Takamoto Katsuta: Takamoto Katsuta to win (2.02)
WRC at 11:00: Sami Pajari Top 5 (3.05)
WRC at 11:00: Takamoto Katsuta Top 3 (2.75)
WRC at 11:00: Takamoto Katsuta to win (10.00)
WRC at 11:00: Elfyn Evans to win (11.00)