WRC Rally Sweden 2025

WRC Rally Sweden 13-02-2025

Rally Sweden, or Svenskerally as we call it here, is the only WRC race of the year that runs exclusively on snow and ice, as far as King Winter has done. Because that has not always been the case. For many years, the race took place in Värmland around Torsby and Hagfors, but due to a lack of snow and ice, the race was moved north to Umeå in 2022. This rally has been on the calendar since 1950, but it was first run as a winter race in 1965. From 1965 to 2003, there were ONLY winners from Sweden and Finland here. It was not until 2004 that a Frenchman named Sébastien Loeb won as the very first non-Scandinavian, and it would be another 9 years, in 2013, before a new non-Scandinavian won this race. Also when a Frenchman, Sébastien Ogier (who we tipped off about in Monte-Carlo), took victory in front of the Scandinavians' noses. He is also the most successful non-Scandinavian in Rally Sweden with three wins, but is not competing now! Loeb has one win, Neuville has one, Evans has one and Tänak from Estonia has two wins. Otherwise, Petter Solberg has one win, the Swedes 24 wins and the Finns 23. So there is no doubt who is the best on snow and ice. And in recent times it is the Finns.

I went through some of the changes for this season before Rally Monte-Carlo, so I won't say much more about that. But the thing that was most exciting before Monte-Carlo was the new tires from Hankook. Would they be as stable as the previous tire supplier Pirelli had? Was the grip as good? Did they puncture easily? Yes, most of the teams and drivers had many questions. While Hankook themselves crossed all their fingers in the hope that they would be well received. And they were! Hankook has subsequently received a lot of positive feedback on the tires in Monte-Carlo, and that they were willing to listen to the teams regarding improvements in the future.

The tires used in Rally Sweden are of two types, a snow tire and an ice tire, and it is mainly the ice tire that is used. This is a studded tire with a large P, and contains several hundred studs with a protrusion length of 7mm. This grips almost better on snow and ice than your regular car tires do on paved roads. But here too, there is uncertainty about how well the new tires grip in the corners, braking and acceleration. And not least, how well the studs stick if they hit gravel? Because they are, after all, "just" glued to the rubber. Because smaller studs provide less grip on the rest of the stage. Rumors after tests and test runs say that the tires grip worse on ice than last year's Pirelli, especially if there is loose snow on the ice, so it will be exciting to see who trusts the most and least in the grip.

And since we're talking about grip, starting positions also have a lot to say here, because it's definitely not an advantage to start first on the stages like in the Rally Monte-Carlo. The first car on the road will have to "clean" the road of loose snow so that the hard snow and ice come out, and will therefore have much less grip on the surface than the cars behind. The one who starts first on day 1 is determined by the positions on the overall WRC points table at any given time. But this is changed after the results list when the day of the race is over, so that the leader on day 1 drives first on day 2, etc.

During four winter days around Umeå, 300.22 km of speed stages will be driven, divided into 5.16 km of evening driving on Thursday, 124.32 km on Friday, 101.96 km on Saturday and 68.78 km on the last day of the race. The start and finish of the race are in the center of Umeå, and Thursday's stage will be run as a public stage with the finish within walking distance of the city center. 12 cars in the most extreme class will be at the start, 5 Toyotas, 3 from Hyundai and 4 Fords from M-Sport.

So what about the individual drivers we think can do something here?

Thierry Neuville won Rally Sweden in 2018 and has driven this race 12 times. He has been in the top 6 8 times and 5 of these have been on the podium, so there should be no doubt about his routine on snow and ice here. Last year, the Belgian was number 4 behind Evans, Fourmaux and a Finn named Esapekka Lappi who won the race. In 2023, he was number 3 and number 2 the year before that. Neuville was world champion last year, and in the Rally Monte-Carlo that was held recently, he was number 6 after driving off the road a few times because he trusted the new tires too much. If he makes the same mistake here, he will lose a lot of time while digging the car out of the snow pile. Neuville is not quite at the level he was in the spring season, so he needs to move up a notch or two.

Kalle Rovanperä took a "year off" last year, did some track racing and tested several motorsport disciplines on asphalt. He received some criticism for this during the Rally Monte-Carlo because they thought he had lost a bit of the feeling by driving on surfaces with less grip. Still, he finished 4th, ahead of Ott Tänak and Neuville, among others. Here in Rally Sweden he comes to his second "home track" (Rally Finland is of course No. 1), and he won here in the first year he became world champion, 2022. In addition, he has a 3rd place from 2020 and 4th place in 2023, while he was No. 39 last year when he only competed in a few races and had little testing of the car beforehand. This caused him to drive off the road, among other things.

Ott Tänak made his debut with a WRC car here in 2012 in a Ford Fiesta. Then it ended with a broken race. In the following years he has driven the race 10 times with the following results: 5-4-5-2-9-1-2-Broken-1-Broken! So in 10 races he has "broke" twice (drove off the road and started again the next day as this is allowed in the WRC), a 9th place and otherwise he has been the worst no. 5! And with two wins and two 2nd places here he proves that this is a surface he likes to drive on. Tänak came fifth in the Rally Monte-Carlo, but struggled with the setup of the car and didn't get it quite the way he wanted. Still he took four stage wins after adjusting the car for day 2, which was second most after Ogier who won the race. So the form seems good.

Elfyn Evans is also someone who has been in the WRC rally circus for a long time. In Rally Sweden he has started 10 times, nine of them in the top class. Evans won this race in 2020, but has several nice positions besides the victory. Among other things, two 6th places, two 5th places and 2nd place last year. Evans has previously been known for a lot of downhill runs and broken races, but has over the years become more and more stable and perhaps not as wild in the top end as before. In Rally Monte-Carlo he drove wisely and fast, which ultimately rewarded him with a 2nd place.

Adrien Fourmaux is this year's exciting new driver after switching from Ford to Hyundai before this season. Hyundai is spending more money on WRC than Ford is, and thus the car will be somewhat better and faster. This can be seen when you go back to Rally Monte-Carlo, because there Fourmaux drove directly to two stage wins in the new car. Fourmaux has also driven on snow and ice in Sweden, but the youngster has little experience here in a Rally1 car. Only in 2022 and last year has he participated with the worst equipment, and his debut ended with mechanical problems and a broken race. Last year, however, he drove fantastically and came in 3rd behind Lappi and Evans. Can he do the same again with Hyundai? He took the last podium place in Rally Monte-Carlo.

Sami Pajari is also someone who must be mentioned. Not because he is one of the top drivers, because he is not, not yet. But because he is Finnish! And you have probably noticed what Finns do in Rally Sweden? Exactly. Winning! That is why we cannot completely put him on the shelf. Pajari is a Finnish talent who has been driving the WRC races in the second largest class for a couple of years, with a jump in a Rally1 car for Toyota now and then to gain experience. He is a former Junior WRC champion from 2021 and won the WRC championship for Rally2 cars last year. He has not driven Rally Sweden in a Rally1 car before, but twice in a Rally2 car. In 2023 he came in 10th overall regardless of Rally1 or Rally2 car, and last year he came in 6th overall. Also in a Rally2 car. If the youngster stays on the road, we should not rule out some surprising results here.

We also have interesting names in Toyota driver Katsuta and Ford driver Munster, but I'll probably get into these more in other races than here, even though Katsuta has a 4th place from 2022.

So what do we conclude from the only winter rally of the year?

As in Rally Monte-Carlo, this is a race where routine will be of great help when making choices. The right tire choice must be made, tactics on which stages to drive at full speed, and which to hold back a little on, so that the tires hold up as best as possible. At the same time, the focus must be on the right places so that you don't end up in the snowdrift. Starting position is mentioned and Friday is the longest day, so that being first on the road here has no advantage on the first three speed stages. Evans starts first on both Thursday and Friday and sweeps the road these days, then come Fourmaux, Rovanperä, Tänak and Neuville. Pajari starts in No. 9 with perhaps the best starting position on Thursday and Friday.

We have also mentioned earlier that it would be natural to look at the countries the drivers come from, because there is no doubt that Swedes and Finns have dominated here throughout the ages. And since there are no Swedes in the Rally1 class, we are left with drivers from Suomi Finland on the dominance map. BUT, it has been shown after 2004, that if you are the best at driving fast in a car, you can also win Rally Sweden if you come from France, Norway, Belgium, Great Britain and Estonia.

Even though Pajari and Fourmaux have a good starting position, I don't think they can keep up with the best. I still believe that they can take a stage win or two this weekend, and possibly a top 5 if they stay on track. But there is one Finn I have more faith in, namely Kalle Rovanperä. He has a lot of experience on snow and ice, has won here before, and recently drove a rally in Finland where he got many miles of speed on the new tires. I think this was worth it for Rovanperä and Toyota. They learned a lot that they have benefited from in the last test and until the start. Elfyn Evans will also benefit from this as they drive in the same team. Of the Hyundai drivers, I have the most faith in Ott Tänak. Both he and Neuville have the routine from here, but Tänak has almost all of his results from here in the top 5 and he just got better and better in Monte-Carlo. I also think that Tänak will be Hyundai's fastest driver.

So I have some alternative bets here. And first I think about the winner of the race, but here I don't feel that it is as clear as in Monte-Carlo, and if I have to go for the winner it will be between Tänak (3.25) and Rovanperä (2.15). Both can be played for now. I also consider Evans top 3 (2.25) and Tänak as best Hyundai driver (1.88) or a H2H and Total Points. But based on all the uncertain scenarios I have been through, I land on the following main bets.

WRC at 19:00: Ott Tänak Best Hyundai Driver (2.00)

‍

Alternative games:

WRC at 19:00: Elfyn Evans Total Points over 16.5 (2.00)

WRC at 19:00: H2H Sami Pajari – Martins Sesks: Sami Pajari wins (1.70)

WRC at 19:00: Elfyn Evans Top 3 (2.25)

WRC at 19:00: Kalle Rovanperä Leads after Friday (2.30)

WRC at 19:00: Kalle Rovanperä wins (2.15)