WRC Rally Saudi Arabia 26-11-2025

So here we are, the last WRC round of the year, and the world champion is to be crowned. This season there has been excitement about the title throughout the season, and Elfyn Evans has been at the top of the overall list almost the entire time. Now the battle for the title is between him and Frenchman Sébastien Ogier, with only three points separating the two. Will Evans take his first title, or will Ogier take his ninth?

We are going to a brand new rally on the calendar, and of course it is Saudi Arabia that has spent millions of kroner to bring another sporting event to the country as quickly as possible. As always controversial, and Sébastien Ogier said bluntly that if he had not been fighting for a new World Championship title, he would not have shown up. He is honest that he does not like their views on various things.

But now it's time to race there, and if he's going to fight for his ninth title against Elfyn Evans, he'll have to show up with a fake smile. There's of course a theoretical possibility that Rovanperä will become world champion again too, but then almost both of the two in front of him will have to break. In any case, Rovanperä has to win, Ogier has to take a maximum of 15 points and Evans a maximum of 12. And based on what we've seen on gravel before this year, it would be very surprising if that happens.

Race info

Rally Saudi Arabia is run over four days with 17 special stages, a total of 319.44 km on gravel. The rally has Jeddah as its starting point, more specifically the Corniche Circuit. This race starts on Wednesday with shakedown and a short spectator stage, before seven new stages are run on Thursday. There are six stages on Friday and only three on Saturday. For Toyota, Evans, Ogier, Rovanperä, Katsuta and Pajari are driving, while Hyundai is fielding its three regular drivers Tänak, Neuville and Fourmaux. M-Sport Ford is also fielding its regular duo here, which is Munster and McErlean, but they have two extra cars to start with Mārtiņš Sesks and Nasser Al-Attiya.

The challenge

As in Paraguay, this is a race that no one has ever driven before. The teams had drivers in the test rally that took place last year, so they have some video material, but notes, familiarity with the roads, the surface and the terrain will only be looked at and done when the drive-through begins.
This rally will be about adaptation. Because they will encounter everything from wide, fast gravel roads with gentle bends and blind hilltops, but also rougher, more technical sections where precision and tire handling are crucial. Changing light, shifting sand and varying terrain make visibility and grip unpredictable. High speeds increase the risk, the aggressive nature with sharp rocks on some sections can punish aggressive driving with tire damage or damage to the suspension. And with the championship in its final phase, it is not just about reading the road, it is about keeping a cool head and making the right decisions when everything is at stake.

Hyundai – 2026 is our goal!

After an extremely bad trip to Japan, where Neuville's car collapsed four times in four days, Fourmaux went off the road and peeled off the side of his car like the lid of a sardine can, and Ott Tänak had a 2024 model that struggled for three days before they got it partially sorted, they are now looking only towards 2026 and taking every mile they can get to test. Tänak is fourth in the world championship, but there is no realistic chance of finishing on the podium.

After Rally Japan, it was time for some 2026 news, and Ott Tânak came with the biggest one. After exploring the possibilities at Toyota where he received a pleasant no, he also turned down a lucrative deal worth tens of millions of kroner per year at Hyundai. Instead, he chose to take a break from the WRC circus. He wants to be more with his kids, watch them grow up and be more of a family man. So this could be the last we see of the Estonian at the top level in rallying. He doesn't imagine this being his last time in the WRC, but will he return as a full-time driver? There is speculation that he will return in 2027 along with the new WRC rules.

Thierry Neuville has been confirmed with a new contract, and Adrien Fourmaux is expected to be the co-driver. Who the latter will be is not known at the time of writing, but we can hope that we will get Andreas Mikkelsen back. Regardless of the driver cabal at Hyundai, this race will probably see some testing, and Tänak is back in the 2025 model.

Toyota – Best in every way

This year Toyota has been completely superior. Not only have they won 12 out of 13 races, but they have mostly filled the rest of the podium as well. So from the administration, via the workshop and all the way up to the duos in the car, they have been the best. And it ends up as world champions in the factory team and wallpapering the podium on the driver and co-driver side. But who will be world champion?

In my opinion, there are only two that stand between them, Elfyn Evans and Sébastien Ogier. Evans has been consistent throughout the season, and even though he has started first in many races, he has been patient and has scored a good number of points. Ogier has done three rallies less than Evans and won six of the 10 races he has entered, and yet he is only three points behind. In addition, he has two second places and a third place, so there is no doubt that the Frenchman is the favorite.

Toyota has dominated in terms of stage times, podiums and driver morale. So I expect Toyota to be on top again now.

The unpredictability

In all races there is a lot of unforeseen, with a certain degree of excitement. But, and it is a big but! No one has driven this race before, and during the test race last year there were many punctures reported. So can we have a "bingorally" in the decisive World Championship race? I certainly hope not. A World Championship should not be decided by accident and luck, and I am crossing my fingers that the organizer has fixed some of the problems from last year. And that we get a drivers' battle rather than a mechanics' battle.

A little bit of information about the drivers

Thierry Neuville has signed a new contract with Hyundai and sees this race as a test and experience. Broke four out of four days in Japan. Came third in Paraguay which was also completely new for the year. If it works out and the car holds up he could surprise.

Ott Tänak was once again the fastest and most stable Hyundai last time. Is back in the 2025 model. Has announced that he will take a break from the WRC after the season. Driving for a good result. Came fourth in Paraguay in a new race and new notes.

Adrien Fourmaux has probably been talked into it and says he's trying to focus on the positive instead of the negative. Was the best of the Hyundais until he went off the road in Japan. Signed a new contract with Hyundai. Will probably combine testing and results.

Elfyn Evans leads the World Championship by three points and starts first on the road. Came second in Paraguay which was also a new race. Driving for his first World Championship title after several second places. Must be fast and patient. Driving for Toyota next year as well.

Kalle Rovanperä is moving to racing next year. Had a busy time with racing tests and a lot of travel. Never been friends with Hankook on gravel, but started to figure it out at the end of the season. Aggressive driving style and can be prone to accidents. Outsider and with luck and speed can become world champion.

Takamoto Katsuta tried too hard in Japan and failed. Drives fast at times, but is too unstable. Could get a good position if he avoids accidents. Didn't do particularly well in Paraguay. Has renewed contract with Toyota.

Sébastien Ogier won again in Japan. He is second in the World Championship and starts second here. He won the new race Rally Paraguay and has the most experience. He is going for his ninth World Championship title and has cheated Evans of the title before.

Summary and tips

Rally Saudi Arabia is, as mentioned, a brand new rally and will most likely bring some surprises along the way. Hyundai wants to spice up the season with a good result, but at the same time test until 2026. Toyota has won everything except one race, and will probably want to put an end to a fantastic season with another victory.

In the fight for the World Championship title, it's really just Evans and Ogier who stand between them, but Rovanperä is lurking in the reeds and will be ready to take on the two in front of him if things go really wrong. But it will take a while, because both Evans and Ogier have the experience needed to tackle another rally. But Ogier probably has the fastest speed of the two, so without any kind of accident I think he will be World Champion for the ninth time. Because punctures can be a big factor here, I don't dare recommend betting on the two as a main bet.

What I'm landing on is something I feel is the safest bet here, because given the situation Hyundai has been in, and is in right now, I rather recommend this bet:

WRC at 09:00: A Toyota wins the race (1.50)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 09:00: Sébastien Ogier top 3 (1.60) 4/10
WRC at 09:00: Elfyn Evans wins (7.55) 1/10
WRC at 09:00: Kalle Rovanperä wins (3.25) 2/10
WRC at 09:00: Adrien Fourmaux best Hyundai driver (3.10) 2/10
WRC at 09:00: H2H Sébastien Ogier – Ott Tänak: Ogier to win (1.70) 3/10
WRC at 09:00: H2H Sébastien Ogier – Thierry Neuville: Ogier to win (1.52) 4/10