WRC Rally Chile Bio Bío 11-09-2025

Rally Paraguay lived up to expectations in terms of excitement, unpredictability and action. There were lots of punctures, rain, slippery roads and a veteran named Sébastien Ogier who pulled the longest straw and won the WRC innovation.
Now we are still in South America, but we move west to the elongated country of Chile, more specifically Concepción, a city in the central part of the country. The Pacific coast city, which is the country's second largest city, has hosted WRC races twice before and is the last in a series of seven gravel races. Toyota has won five of the first six gravel races, while Hyundai has won one. Who will take the last points before we rebuild the cars for asphalt again?

Rhythm and self-confidence are needed here

There was a lot of excitement about Rally Paraguay because it was a race that no one had driven before, and all the roads, surfaces, notes and car setups were completely unknown to all the teams in the toughest class. And the minimal knowledge of the rally was reflected at the start of the race, because the drivers drove in a controlled manner on the first high-speed stages. Still, there was drama with punctures, cars that landed incorrectly after jumps and crews who had back pain when they reached the finish line. Throughout the race, there was a lot of drama as the punctures came on a continuous basis, and in the end, the meritorious Frenchman Sébastien Ogier stood on top of the podium once again.

One gravel rally remains of the series of seven, and now it is Chile that is the host. Here the roads are both fast and technical, a bit like the race they have just done, except that in Paraguay there were a lot of open plains and fields, while in Chile the roads wind through forest plantations and up the hillsides of the Bío Bío region. Where visibility was very good in Paraguay, it is the opposite here, because with frequent fog and blind corners, the drivers have to rely 100% on their notes to be able to have the highest speed through the corners. If they miss the speed a little in the corners here, you not only disappear into a field that makes you "only" lose a little time, but you sit glued to a tree leg and curse the mistake you made up and down in your mind, while your competitors pass you at full speed.

The roads have a compact surface, but are very loose outside the ideal track. They are both fast and technical, and in some places they are very narrow, so an aggressive wide driving style is relatively unsuitable here. As in the previous race, rain is a threat here too, and if there is a lot of water, it becomes slippery.
Those drivers who find a fast rhythm early in this rally will be hard to beat. If you struggle with the rhythm, however, then yes, it will be a tiring weekend.

We also have to go back to the tires, because now Hankook is starting to lose grip. At the beginning of the season they received good feedback because of their durability and little or almost no punctures. The drivers complained about poor grip, but were very happy that they could withstand so much.
That whistle, it has turned! When they got to warmer climates and the gravel races in Europe, the punctures have come on a continuous line, both when they hit rocks and other things in the road, but also when the drivers have not hit anything at all. It got so far in Paraguay that the drivers had nothing positive to say about Hankook, and Ott Tänak said the following after he was interviewed after finishing a special stage: "It's a big shame that punctures determine the champion", and when the journalists later asked what he thought about the next stages, he replied: "Everything can happen, it's Hankook" with a clearly irritated jab at the tire manufacturer. So let's hope Rally Chile is characterized by the excitement that the drivers create, not the punctures!

A final variance to the race is the weather, because at altitude the drivers can encounter fog, and if they are unlucky with the density, some will have significantly better visibility than others, which of course affects the speed they dare to have. Last year, several lost a lot of time because the fog thickened from car to car.

Race info

Rally Chile Bio Bío is run over three days with 16 special stages, a total of 306.76 km on gravel. Based in Concepción, the event starts on Thursday with a shakedown and ceremonial start, before six stages are run on Friday. On Saturday, another six stages are run and on Sunday, four stages are run. For Toyota, Evans, Ogier, Rovanperä, Katsuta and Pajari are driving, while Hyundai is fielding its three usual drivers Tänak, Neuville and Fourmaux. M-Sport Ford is fielding three drivers this time, which are Munster, McErlean and a Chilean named Alberto Heller.

Driver info

Thierry Neuville was for once one of those who did not get critical punctures in Paraguay, but he did not feel comfortable with the car. Still, he fought for good times from time to time, and found more and more of it as the race went on. After two days of hard fighting, things finally came together on Sunday, and the reigning world champion won two special stages and took maximum Super Sunday points. Now he is looking forward to Rally Chile, a race in which he came fourth in 2024, and second in 2023. Neuville was completely out of the overall fight in the World Rally Championship after Finland, but with the second most points of all in Paraguay, he is now at least mathematically in the fight. If he manages to make friends with his car again, he could be dangerous in Chile.

Ott Tänak was one of those penalised by punctures in Paraguay with two at unfavourable times, and on the final stage a shock absorber failed just before the finish. Nevertheless, he managed to finish fourth in the race and secured important points. Tänak struggled to find his pace in Paraguay and no adjustments throughout the race improved the situation. In Chile he hopes things will go as well as they did in 2023, when he won the race ahead of Neuville and Evans. Last year he finished third after losing time on a spin. With a good starting position, Tänak can use it to set some good times on Friday.

Adrien Fourmaux continued his good driving after Finland, and on Friday in Paraguay he led the race until the last stage. There he suffered a puncture and dropped to second place. He held this position until the last stage on Sunday, but was hit by a heavy downpour that caused him to drop to fourth place. The Frenchman has shown solid driving in the last two rallies, and with the confidence he has now, he could be scary in Chile. Fourmaux has only driven this rally last year, and then in a Ford Puma. With mechanical trouble and a one-minute time penalty, he still finished fifth overall, and with two stage wins he impressed greatly in 2024. Now he is fit and again in position to do the same. Over 1.5 stage wins could be a good bet if offered.

Elfyn Evans started first on the road in Paraguay again as he was leading the World Championship, and he never found much rhythm or top speed. However, he rode smartly and avoided punctures and other problems throughout the weekend, eventually finishing second and increasing his lead in the overall World Championship. The Briton has struggled to keep up the pace in the gravel races due to his starting position, and will start first again in Chile. I doubt the situation will improve here, but he could surprise with a good result if his starting position improves on Saturday and Sunday.

Kalle Rovanperä was superb in Finland and he led the rally in Paraguay after 13 of the 19 stages had been driven, but then came the puncture on the 14th stage. The Finn lost over two and a half minutes and slid down to sixth place, where he stayed. On Sunday he drove fast and got a good amount of points, so it wasn't a complete crisis. He won five stages and seems to have figured out a bit more from the car, setup and tyres. This means the Finn can be dangerous in Chile. Rovanperä won this race last year and took fourth place in 2023, and I think he will also be at the top this time. He also confirms that he is starting to figure out more from the Hankook tyres, especially on loose surfaces. On hard surfaces he struggles a bit more, but it has improved a lot. I certainly don't underestimate him, as I have done earlier this year.

Takamoto Katsuta rode fantastically in his second home country, Finland, but in Paraguay he didn't keep up. He did get a puncture on the first stage, and after that he was never in the running for good times, but he also made a big driving mistake and went off the road at the end of the first day. After a restart on Saturday he finished the rest of the race with broken confidence and had to apologize to the team for his poor performance. His best finish in Chile was fifth last year, and with Paraguay in mind, I don't see him doing much here this year either.

Sébastien Ogier is the champion with a capital M. Yes, he has eight World Championship titles and is chasing his ninth, but the way he has driven this year is impressive. He has now only driven seven out of ten races this season, and yet he is third in the summary. The reason for this is his stability. He has four wins, two second places and one third place in his starts this season. And the last victory came in Paraguay! Ogier started with an early puncture and lost 40 seconds, but drove fastest of all in 9 out of 19 special stages and won the race by 26 seconds. Here in Chile he has a second place from 2019 and a broken race last year after hitting a rock that destroyed the car. With the form he is in, and the routine he has, he will be one of the favorites now too.

What happened between the races in South America?

The time between Rally Paraguay and Rally Chile was spent a little differently, but there was a lot of vacation and relaxation. Fourmaux went to Peru for three or four days, while Pajari and Rovanperä went to Florida and had a few quiet days there. Ford duo McErlean and Munster went to the USA to drive the WRC simulator with M-Sport Ford, while Evans didn't care about jet lag and went straight to Finland to test. Katsuta and Ogier also went back to Europe to be at home in the meantime.

Summary and tips

Back to familiar territory for most of the drivers, and it will of course be difficult to avoid Sébastien Ogier here. With the performance he has done this season, he will of course be the favorite. And now that he has said he is 100% committed to winning his ninth World Championship title, he becomes even more dangerous. We should naturally not forget Ott Tänak and Kalle Rovanperä either, because without the punctures they got last time, they would have given Ogier a fight for the victory in Paraguay.
There is a slightly different charge for this race, but jet lag did not seem to affect Tänak and Ogier last rally, so I do not put much emphasis on what the drivers have done in the meantime. I assume that they have done what suits them best to perform.
Rovenperä always talks himself down before the race, but says he will fight as hard as he can. And day one may be a bit negative for him, but I think he will still be among the top on Sunday. I am a little unsure about Tänak, but we know he can drive fast when everything goes well. Of the slightly lower ranked drivers, Fourmaux is probably the one with the highest speed on the day. However, I couldn't find any good bets on him when the analysis was posted, so I choose to once again bet on the most stable driver.

So my main tip in this race is once again:

WRC at 14:00: Sébastien Ogier top 3 (1.60)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 14:00: H2H Grégoire Munster – Josh McErlean: Josh McErlean wins (1.84) 2/10
WRC at 14:00: H2H Sébastien Ogier – Ott Tänak: Sébastien Ogier wins (1.78) 3/10
WRC at 14:00: Ott Tänak best Hyundai driver (2.00) 3/10
WRC at 14:00: Kalle Rovanperä (5.00) 1/10

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