WRC Rally Canary Islands 2026

Rally Islas Canarias – WRC
Start: Thursday 23 April at 12.00
Oliver Solberg top 2 (1.85)
Stake: 4/10 units

• A strong finish in Croatia shows that Oliver Solberg has found his rhythm again and dares to push.
• Toyota is best on asphalt with superior grip and stability compared to its competitors.
• When Solberg avoids small “rookie mistakes”, he has shown that he matches, and often beats most people on pure pace.

The “Golden Edition” of Rally Islas Canarias, marking its 50th anniversary, is one of the most technical asphalt events of the season. Based in Las Palmas, the race consists of 18 special stages and over 300 km of demanding driving on narrow, winding roads where precision and tyre choice are crucial.

In 2025, Kalle Rovanperä completely dominated ahead of Sébastien Ogier and Elfyn Evans, while Hyundai struggled with understeer. For 2026, Hyundai has improved the asphalt layout, but still lags behind Toyota, which remains the benchmark with superior grip and balance.

Toyota is again strong with Evans, Ogier and Oliver Solberg as favourites. M-Sport is gradually developing, but lacks top speed. Everything indicates that Toyota is fighting for the win again this year, and I think Solberg will fight for the win here and I predict he will finish top 2.

Rally Canary Islands 2026

Rally Islas Canarias 2026, the “Golden Edition” as this year’s edition is called due to its 50th anniversary, marks a historic high point for rallying on Gran Canaria. The race, based in Las Palmas, is part of the World Rally Championship for the second year in a row and brings together the world’s elite for one of the most technical asphalt events of the season.

This anniversary edition offers 18 speed tests and more than 300 kilometers of competitive driving. The roads wind through mountainous areas, villages and along dramatic coastlines, which places high demands on precision, pace and tire choice. The asphalt surface leaves little room for error, and small margins can decide the entire race. Unlike the previous race in Croatia where all the corners could be "cut", almost none can be cut here. Therefore, this race is more like track driving than any other World Championship race on the calendar.

Last year, Kalle Rovanperä surprised everyone and won almost all the special stages, and of course the race, by a landslide. Behind him, Sébastien Ogier and Elfyn Evans followed in second and third place in a race neither of them had driven before. Of this year's WRC drivers, only M-Sport driver Jon Armstrong is making his debut, as Oliver Solberg drove WRC2 here last year.

The road surface has incredibly good grip in dry conditions, but if it rains on the mountain stages it can quickly become slippery. So tire choice becomes important here too.

Hyundai – Still struggling, but improving

Hyundai struggled a lot at Rally Islas Canarias last year, where understeer was their biggest problem, which in turn meant that the car did not have enough grip in some of the corners. Now they have had a year to improve this, but if we look at this year's results, they still have a long way to go before and now again Toyota.
Among other things, they have improved their asphalt setup in several areas, and the main focus has been on the suspension and dampers, with adjusted geometry for better grip and less understeer. In addition, they have worked on the differentials for smoother power output and better balance in the car.

The team has also tried to expand the “Setup Window”, making the car less sensitive to small adjustments. The front has been made more predictable for better corner entry, and the result is a more stable and driveable car on asphalt, but according to the drivers it is still a question of gradual improvements, not a complete level change.

Dani Sordo comes in as third driver to collect some points in the factory championship. Sordo is an asphalt expert and has a lot of experience, but he has never driven the car without a hybrid, and never on the Hankook tires. So as before, Neuville and Fourmaux will be the names to talk about, and Sordo will probably be there like a "pike in the reeds" and cut in if others have problems.

Toyota – Absolutely superior

Toyota was practically the benchmark on asphalt in 2025, and especially during the Rally Islas Canarias the team showed a level that the competitors did not come close to, with a historic 1–2–3–4 victory. Kalle Rovanperä won overwhelmingly after controlling almost the entire rally and winning the majority of the stages, while his teammates filled the rest of the top four. On clean asphalt, Toyota showed a car with extreme balance, precise front and stable rear, which made it easy to drive quickly over long stages. Hyundai's lead was significant, with over two minutes down on the nearest competitor.

Going into 2026, Toyota remains the benchmark on asphalt. The experience from 2025 has given them a solid starting point, especially in terms of mechanical grip and optimal tire utilization. Rally Islas Canarias continues as a technically demanding asphalt race, and Toyota has already shown that they master this type of road better than their rivals. At the same time, greater competition is expected, as Hyundai has worked purposefully to close the gap.

Nevertheless, Toyota is still the team that sets the standard: high stability, wide "setup window" and drivers who can make the most of the car on demanding asphalt. That is why they also enter this race as clear favorites. Elfyn Evans and Oliver Solberg have dominated for Toyota so far this year, but both in Safarirally and in Croatia it ended in broken races and other Toyota drivers climbed to the top of the podium instead. In addition, Sébastien Ogier is on the starting line again after finishing second here last year as "best of the rest" behind Rovanperä.

Without driver errors from the three, I think they are fighting for the win here. We all know what Sébastien Ogier is capable of, and Oliver drove fantastically the last two days in Croatia and has probably regained his confidence after the "rookie mistake" he made on the first stage. If he manages to do it without such errors again, he will be tough to beat. Elfyn Evans is really "Mr. Consistent", even though he has now broken in two rallies in a row, and should be better placed than the Hyundais.

M-Sport – Talent Development

At M-Sport, the focus has been on the steady development of its Ford Puma and getting consistent points, more than fighting for wins. On tarmac, the car has shown improvements in balance and grip, but still lacks the precision and stability that the Toyota shows. The drivers have occasionally delivered strong stages, but the overall pace is still uneven. Nevertheless, the team is gradually showing progress, and the goal is to approach the top level throughout the season.

M-Sport is fielding second-year driver Josh McErlean and rookie Jon Armstrong, and it is the latter who has impressed the most. He is proving to be a real talent and has shown on several occasions that he is faster than his more experienced teammate. I think that is happening here too, but the driver errors are a bit closer with these guys so it can be a bit unstable to bet on that.

So what do we think will be the outcome of the race?

I would be surprised if Toyota doesn't win the race, and as mentioned I think the winner is between Sébastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans and Oliver Solberg. Both Katsuta and Pajari are fast drivers, but if Ogier, Evans and Solberg stay on the road and don't get punctured, they have proven to be the fastest of the Toyota drivers almost every time. And I don't believe that Neuville or Fourmaux will be on the podium, not because they are bad drivers, but because the car is many notches worse than the Toyota. Toyota winning the race at 1.22 odds is a relatively safe bet, but it doesn't give us the world.

I was impressed by Oliver Solberg's performance on Saturday and Sunday in Croatia, and I'm betting he'll finish in the top 2. With a slightly higher risk, Ogier can be considered a winner at 3.30, but he hasn't raced more than two races this year, while the others have four. There are also some bets on our odds list, which you can find here

The rally can be followed here from Thursday.