WRC FORUM8 Rally Japan 06-11-2025

Hyundai didn't have much to compete with Toyota in the Central European Rally unfortunately. The closest was Ott Tänak who chose to drive last year's car. Otherwise, as I predicted, it was a "Two Horse Race" between Ogier and Rovanperä in Toyota, the two of them were superior to the others, until Ogier got a puncture and drove off the road. Thus, the Finn, who is driving his last season in the WRC, was able to control the finish and collect another victory on asphalt.

Now we get another asphalt rally, this time in Toyota's home country of Japan, and expectations are sky-high for the car brand that has already become world champions for manufacturers. The only thing that can ruin the fun is a Hyundai driver driving with his head under his arm. And that's exactly what could happen! Neuville and Tänak took first and second place in 2023, so they like the roads here, and the latter is still in the fight for the World Championship victory.

Race info

FORUM8 Rally Japan is run over four days with 20 special stages, a total of 305.34 km on asphalt. And where else but Toyota City could the base have been? Exactly, nowhere! So there they are. Thursday starts with shakedown and a special stage, before six new stages are run on Friday. There are seven stages on Saturday and six on Sunday. For Toyota, Evans, Ogier, Rovanperä, Katsuta and Pajari are driving, while Hyundai is fielding its three regular drivers Tänak, Neuville and Fourmaux. M-Sport Ford is fielding its regular duo here as well, which is Munster and McErlean.

The challenge

Rally Japan is all about precision, patience and handling pressure. The roads wind through mountainous terrain with very few straights, just turn after turn after turn, with ever-changing grip and visibility challenges from fog, leaves and patchy damp roads.
There is little room for correction. If you take the wrong line and cut the corner a few centimetres too much, you will either hit a curb or slide into the forest. It is a rally of millimetre precision, where the difference between winning and losing is incredibly small. Punctures are also common if you cut the corners too much, and the narrow profile makes it incredibly difficult to recover from a mistake. This is a rally where every second counts, and where a smooth run can be more valuable than pure speed.

Hyundai – We don't give up!

The Korean car brand continues on a lead-heavy track, and although there have been some bright spots now and then, they are unable to match their rival. Ott Tänak made some drastic choices before Rally Central Europe and drove last year's car in the race. That's not exactly a healthy sign for Hyundai's new car that was built before the season. And as predicted in advance by CER, the Estonian became the team's fastest driver with a third place. So the choice was right.
Now comes another asphalt rally and Tänak chooses the same strategy. He has never driven the 25 model on asphalt and therefore feels more confident in the 24 model and therefore also uses it in Japan. Part of the reason is because they have no testing before Rally Japan, and then it will be too much bingo to bet on the latest version.

Neuville and Fourmaux, on the other hand, will start in the latest version of the i20 Rally1, which they did in CER. In CER, they tested a lot of different things without finding any particular answer. It almost went from bad to worse. Fourmaux was angry like a kid who didn't get his way, and Neuville first jumped out of the way, and later he drove straight into a ditch. Whether it was the driver or the car that was the cause of it is uncertain, but fortunately everyone inside the car was fine.

Hyundai's newest sporting director, Andrew Wheatley, is out to emphasize that they haven't given up. As long as there is a theoretical possibility that Ott Tänak can become world champion, we will fight tooth and nail, he said before the race. But we know we have a big job ahead of us against Toyota, he continued.
That's actually a nice thing to say, because they have to be magicians for the Estonian to become this year's world champion, but they should be allowed to try.

Toyota – Best in every way

Toyota continues to impress, and with Rovanperä's victory it is 100% clear that they will be this year's world factory champions. Ogier and Rovanperä fought for a long time at the front, with Evans in third place, but Ogier's exit ruined another podium finish. Nevertheless, they were very happy with first, second and fourth place in the CER.

Now it's off to the home country of the successful car brand, where the race is perhaps the most important of all to win. Here they will shine in front of their own employees, fans and supporters, and anything less than a victory here in Toyota City will be considered a failure! The man who leads the World Championship, Elfyn Evans in Toyota, won this race both in 2023 and last year ahead of the second-place finisher in the World Championship, Sebastien Ogier, both years. So who will take the win this year?

The race in Japan is also particularly important for one driver, namely Takamoto Katsuta. He is the country's big idol and star, and driving a Toyota in his home country, it couldn't be bigger for him as a person. Katsuta finished fourth in the CER and was already focused on this race here, because that's where he wants to perform. But Katsuta still has a bit to go before he is on par with the top three, even though he can really drive fast at times, I doubt he will win here.

A little bit of information about the drivers

Thierry Neuville has more or less given up on 2025. Went off the road last time and probably trusts the car even less now. Will probably test as much here as in CER. Won here in 2022, but ended up far down the results list in 2023 and last year.

Ott Tänak was the fastest Hyundai in CER. Driving the 2024 model once again. Fighting for a World Championship medal, but not optimistic about victory. Finished second in 2022, sixth in 2023 and rolled off the road last year.

Adrien Fourmaux is angry and dissatisfied. He thinks Hyundai is not giving him good enough equipment and is creating a bad atmosphere. Testing for 2026 on par with Neuville. Came third here last year with Ford. Can drive fast sometimes.

Elfyn Evans leads the World Championship and starts first on the road. Won here in 2023 and 2024. Was very happy with second place in CER and thrives on wet asphalt. Could be a possible winner if everything goes well.

Kalle Rovanperä won on asphalt again, like in the Canary Islands. Seems to have cracked the code with Hankook on asphalt. Last asphalt race in the WRC and has already tested Formula 2. Big media rush before this race, but still the favorite. Number three in 2023, did not race last year.

Takamoto Katsuta is racing the most important race of the year on his calendar. Superstar in his home country and huge media interest. Would love to win here, but has third place in 2022 as his best result. Doubtful if he will make the podium again.

Sébastien Ogier went off the road in CER. Damned for that and will be relentless here. Fighting for his ninth overall World Championship win. Favorite along with Rovanperä. Has never been worse than fourth. Second place in 2023 and 2024 behind Evans.

Summary and tips

Rally Japan is a demanding rally in many ways, and it is important to be precise and patient. If you get a little too eager, you will mostly be punished in the form of punctures or exits. Elfyn Evans has proven to do well here by being patient, because in 2023 Ogier got a little excited and drove off the road, allowing Evans to take the win. Last year Evans once again fought Ogier, but the Frenchman got a puncture and ended up second. This is exactly how quickly the results turn when mistakes and exits occur.

There is no doubt that Toyota will win this race too, but Tänak will probably give them a fight. Unfortunately, the car is not fast enough for him to beat all three in front of him, but he will probably be the fastest Hyundai driver again. For Neuville and Fourmaux who drive the 2025 edition, will probably be forced by the team to test again to get as much data on the car as possible before 2026. I also think a lot will be similar to the CER when it comes to the victory, because Ogier and Rovanperä have kept a much higher pace on asphalt than the rest this year. So without punctures or technical problems, the victory will probably be between them.
I still choose to play what I think is the safest bet here and recommend:

WRC at 08:00: Ott Tänak best Hyundai driver (2.30)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 08:00: Sébastien Ogier top 3 (1.55) 4/10
WRC at 08:00: Kalle Rovanperä wins (2.60) 2/10
WRC at 08:00: Sébastien Ogier wins (3.15) 2/10

More games may be added closer to the start as not all games have been released from the bookmakers yet. So stay tuned!