Analysis of:

WRC EKO Acropolis Rally Greece 26-06-2025

Norrodd

Written by: Norodd

Analysis Information
Sport
Tournament
WRC
Match start
26/06/2025 17:00
Units
4 / 10
Odds

2.70

The Acropolis Rally is the next gravel challenge for the WRC drivers. Another tough race that offers much of the same as Sardinia and Portugal, only a bit rougher. The “Rally of the Gods” is known for sharp rocks, dusty roads and scorching heat. The roads through the mountains north of Athens are merciless and completely unforgiving to the cars, the tires and not least the duo inside the cars. Here the wisest and best driver wins, with a dash of luck.

Much the same as last time, only a little worse now

Rally Sardinia offered everything we could expect and predicted in the analysis beforehand. Elfyn Evans struggled with the starting position, Fourmaux took a stage win on Friday and the battle for victory was once again between Sébastien Ogier and Ott Tänak. The result was almost identical to that in Portugal, where Ogier won by about 8 seconds in both races. The biggest surprise was probably that Kalle Rovanperä found the tone with the car and the surface, so that he could fight for top times in the rally that he more or less hated before the start. The Finn relatively quickly found a setup on the car that he enjoyed, and then we will see how fast he can drive, because it ended with three stage wins and a third place in the end. While the disappointment of the race came from Thierry Neuville already on Friday afternoon. Neuville made a small adjustment in the notes on the first run, and when he was in the same place on the second run, he entered the corner a little wrong so that he had to correct his direction by 10cm. Then the rear wheel hit a rock that tore off almost the entire rear suspension and he was thrown back and forth on the road at 170 km/h. Despite this, he managed to keep the car on the road, but had to break a few hundred meters later.

The Acropolis Rally could easily offer much of the same as Sardinia, but now we have more people in the fight for the top times. It's not just Ogier and Tänak, because Rovanperä is starting to figure out the problems on gravel, Neuville is driving fast when he's not in trouble, Fourmaux, Katsuta and Pajari are shining from time to time, while Evans is struggling when he has to clear the road of sand and gravel, especially when it's dry. When the rain comes, the challenges will be something else entirely, where the dry roads turn into muddy and slippery traps around every corner. Here, tire strategy and survival combined with speed will be the way to success.

The teams also have to fight the heat in Greece, because not only is it hot inside the cars, but the mechanics also have to work in the intense heat under extreme time pressure. If something were to happen to the cars during the race, and they do, they only have a set amount of time to fix everything before the cars have to leave again. If they take longer than the allowed time, the drivers get a time penalty that is added to the total time in the competition. And I can guarantee that something will happen in this race, but it is amazing how efficient these mechanics are even in working conditions like 40 degrees.

Roads, surfaces and tires

The Greek event on the WRC calendar is described by several drivers as the roughest Acropolis Rally ever. I have been there myself to see this rally live, and the roads they drive on there are definitely not something we associate with roads in this country. The roads are extremely rocky at times with a lot of large sharp stones. They are in a way quite similar to the roads in the previous race in Sardinia, with sand and small gravel on top, but where they get "worn out" faster and the sharp stones come out. In other words, there will be no advantage in starting first, but there will also be no advantage in starting far behind. I would say that positions three to six will be favorable on Friday in terms of the first and second time through the speed stages.

I have been busy with the new tires for this year's WRC season, and I have to touch on the topic now too, because tires are important in rallying, and we have seen that in every race now. Not least in the last two gravel races where each car only has a given number of soft tires, tire strategy has been important. Toyota saved a little on the soft tires on Friday in Rally Sardinia, and on Sunday Toyota's drivers were able to use these while, for example, Tänak had to use hard tires with less grip. Hankook has been concerned that the tires should be very durable, but in the rough conditions in Sardinia, several people had punctures and lost 1-2 minutes on tire changes during the fast stage. In Greece, the conditions will be at least as rough, so in addition to choosing the right tires, the drivers must drive smart to avoid punctures. It is precisely in these areas that Ogier is and has been so good, and often loses a little less than his competitors. There have been no reports of any upgrades from Hankook for the Acropolis Rally, so we know what the athletes have to deal with.

Race info

The EKO Acropolis Rally Greece will run over four days and will consist of 17 special stages totaling 345.76 km, divided into 1.5 km SSS on Thursday, 121.76 km on Friday, 123.44 km on Saturday and 99.06 km on Sunday. There are 12 cars registered in the Rally1 class, 5 from Toyota, 3 from Hyundai and 4 in Ford from M-Sport.
For Hyundai, the usual three are driving: Thierry Neuville, Ott Tänak and Adrien Fourmaux. For Toyota, the same five are driving as last time: Sébastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans, Kalle Rovanperä, Takamoto Katsuta and Sami Pajari. And for Ford, these four are the ones who will be starting; Gregoire Munster, Josh McErlean, Mārtiņš Sesks and Jourdan Serderidis. In total, 69 cars will start with big and small.

The rally is based in Lamia, the same place they have been since 2021, but it all starts with a spectacular ceremonial start under the ancient Acropolis monument in the heart of Athens before heading into the mountains surrounding Lamia. This time there is a spectator stage (SSS) which is run on Thursday evening after the teams have completed their shakedown. It is only 1.5 km long and has only one hazard, because the chances of the teams losing time rather than gaining time are great. A small misfire and 5 seconds are gone. That is why the drivers do not like these types of “stages”. On Friday the race heads into the mountains east of Loutraki and the real action begins.

A little driver info

Thierry Neuville was perhaps left as the biggest loser after Rally Sardinia ended. The Belgian entered a fast corner a little wrong and had to shorten the corner a little. On the inside there was a stone that partially tore off the rear position, throwing the car sideways back and forth on the road and the battle for top positions was over before Friday evening. Several days after the race, he still couldn't understand why it went so wrong. But what was positive for Neuville in this race was that he was driving among the fastest before the accident, and that he was fast on the Powerstage when it really mattered even though his starting position was poor. So there is no doubt that Neuville looks positively at the rally in Greece, a race he has won twice before, most recently last year when Hyundai took all the podium places. In 2023, he had to break the race after hitting a pothole in the road that destroyed the steering, dampers and a wheel. The world champion has driven this race six times before and knows what he has to do to win again. At least his starting position is favorable in Greece.

Ott Tänak started fourth on the roads in Italy and was, as expected, in the fight for victory for the second time in a row. Tänak had a near-perfect start to the race on Friday and drove wisely throughout the rest of the weekend. He also struggled in this rally, like all other races, with a bit of understeer, yet he did not push the car more than he had to and ended the race in second place again. On SS9 on Saturday he had a puncture, but it was so close to the finish that he did not have to change. The Estonian needs to think more about his tire strategy, because if he had had some softer tires left on Sunday he might have been able to take the seconds that were missing to stand at the top of the podium in Italy. Tänak drove the Acropolis Rally for the first time in 2011, but after the boy became more experienced and the race came back on the calendar in 2021, he has never been worse than fourth, and when he got fourth place he drove a Ford. He has driven Hyundai here three times with two second places and one third place as a result. He has never won here, but if the tires and car hold up, 2025 could be the year it happens. At least the momentum is there.

Kalle Rovanperä thought Rally Sardinia was probably the worst rally on the entire calendar for him. But he is probably more moderate with those claims after this year's edition. Because even with an early starting number, he managed to "save" Friday, as well as improve the setup of the car so that Saturday and Sunday were two good days. The Finn came in third and took the most points on super Sunday, so that he is now back in the fight for the World Championship title. Rovanperä is undoubtedly a talent, but he is unsure whether the WRC is his future, without wanting to comment on it further. First he will drive the Acropolis Rally, a rally he has good memories of, because of the three participations he has in this race, two of them have ended in victory. Now the Finn has been tested on Greek roads to prepare even better, but he still claims that he is not comfortable with Hankook. Rovanperä will start third on the road in this race, and will of course have somewhat less grip than the Hyundai drivers, but better than his Toyota teammates. I think he's underestimating himself a bit to shrug his shoulders.

Elfyn Evans had the worst starting position in Sardinia, and as expected, he lost a lot of time on Friday clearing the road of sand and gravel. When the first day of driving was over, he was over a minute behind the leader Ogier. That is the "penalty" for leading the World Championship overall. But the Briton still can't get the car up to speed, and is clearly frustrated with the situation even though he was a little more positive after the last race. He is struggling to find a setup that suits him, the car and the new tires. His driving style means that it doesn't flow so well, because if he pushes even harder, it just goes slower. Evans has therefore tried to change his driving style a little to compensate, but it hasn't helped much yet. And it won't be any different this race, because again he will start first on the road, again he will lose time, and again the frustration will appear. Evans came second here in 2023, which is his best result in this race. Last year he only had trouble with a puncture, technical problems and a rollover, so let's hope he has a better experience this year.

Adrien Fourmaux had a breakthrough last year when he drove for Ford, which resulted in a contract with Hyundai. The start of this year's season was perfect with a third place in Monte-Carlo, but then it has only gone downhill. In the last two gravel races in Portugal and Italy, he has not managed to finish even once! Fourmaux drives very fast at times and can fight for the best times on some stages, but then it can go straight to the forest stage after. This may indicate that he drives completely at the limit, and with a little lack of experience, things go wrong rather than good. And when you drive so on the edge of what you have control over, it can also go wrong for the car, so that technical failures occur more easily. I think the Frenchman will soon be told to drive a couple of percent slower to avoid all the mistakes and problems, but will it then go fast enough? Fourmaux has previously started here three times, with a seventh place in 2021 as his best result. Last year he had technical problems, a broken shock absorber and a puncture on the Greek roads.

Takamoto Katsuta started the rally on the Italian island very well, with a good starting position and a good car, he drove safely and well, until on the last stage he shorted a corner a little too much and ended up on the side and lost a lot of time. With a puncture on Saturday, it looked dark with a top position, but with controlled driving in the rest of the race and dropping out from others, it ultimately ended with a fifth place. Katsuta also drives fast sometimes, but there is little stability about it. If he had been a little wiser in some choices, he could have had more top positions than he has. This year he has a podium from Svenskerally, and otherwise it is broken races or fourth and fifth places. Here in Greece he has two sixth places from 2022 and 2023, while last year he went off the road and lost a wheel and ended up far down the results list. Now he starts sixth on the road and will have a good opportunity to take some time on those who start first, if he stays out of trouble then.

Sébastien Ogier , because what he does is rally driving. Not that he is superior in the driving itself, but he makes all the right choices, with tires, when he has to push, when he has to take it easy, positioning on the road, etc. etc. It is no wonder that he has become world champion eight times! This year he is only driving a few selected rally races to help Toyota with points in the factory championship, and the result so far in the four races he has driven is three wins and one second place. Ogier has been in the game his whole life and has therefore driven the Acropolis Rally seven times since 2009. The Frenchman has not been as superior here as in a number of other races, and a victory from 2011 is the only one he has in addition to two other podiums. Otherwise, he has also had trouble of various kinds in this rough race, like last year when he finished in 16th place after a turbo failure on Friday and a rollover on Sunday. This year he starts second on the road, and will normally lose some time during Friday, but then we are talking about Sébastien Ogier, so I wouldn't be surprised if he drives fast regardless of starting position.

Summary and tips

Acropolis Rally is a tough rally for both car and crew, so a lot can happen here. We have seen that Hankook tires also have to give up when the roads get too rough, and punctures will be a factor here. If you manage without, or with only one puncture, you will be fighting for the podium places. Ogier is again a candidate who can do well here together with Rovanperä, Tänak and Neuville. The latter two have the best starting position, and Tänak is probably the closest to a win if we look back at the last two rally races on gravel. But it is Kalle Rovanperä that I am starting to believe in now, because he drove smartly on Friday in Rally Sardinia, while also finding out more about the car. On Saturday he had top three times in five of six stages, and on Sunday he was fastest. In addition, Ogier has a worse starting position on the road, so I think Rovanperä is now the fastest of the Toyota guys, and my main tip is:

WRC at 17:00: Kalle Rovanperä best Toyota driver (2.70)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 17:00: H2H Kalle Rovanperä - Adrien Fourmaux: Kalle Rovanperä wins (1.62)
WRC at 17:00: H2H Kalle Rovanperä - Thierry Neuville: Kalle Rovanperä wins (1.81)
WRC at 17:00: Ott Tänak Top 3 (1.70)
WRC at 17:00: Kalle Rovanperä Top 3 (1.85)
WRC at 17:00: Kalle Rovanperä wins (6.50)
WRC at 17:00: Ott Tänak wins (3.30)
WRC at 17:00: Kalle Rovanperä over 2.5 stage wins (2.15)
WRC at 17:00: Ott Tänak over 3.5 stage wins (1.85)

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