WRC Delphi Rally Estonia 17-07-2025

After months of demanding rallying, Rally Estonia is here – and we’re talking pure speed and raw adrenaline! This race became part of the WRC in 2020, but has already become one of the most spectacular on the calendar. Now it’s breaking out in Tartu, and the pace is completely different from what we’ve seen lately. We’re talking fast forest roads, technical sections and an undulating landscape that pushes both cars and drivers to the limit. Everything is set for drama – and home hero Ott Tänak, who recently won in Greece, is more fired up than ever. But who really has the advantage here? And what do the numbers, form and surface say about the hottest candidates for victory? Read on – the analysis reveals which drivers you should bet on this weekend.

From technical and low speeds to 150 km/h over the jumps

The Acropolis Rally was a "tire killer" from start to finish, with frustration evident on almost all drivers. In addition, the rally was as tough and rough as I had assumed in advance, with the cars going through as much as the tires. Rovanperä and Neuville had bent shock absorbers on the rough roads, all the Ford cars had fuel-related problems, and so did Pajari. Serderidis got food poisoning and heatstroke, while the two who avoided the biggest problems and at the same time drove incredibly fast were Ott Tänak in Hyundai and Sébastien Ogier in Toyota. The latter came in second, and drove impressively well to be second on the road on Friday. These two have now fought for victory in the last three rallies, and finally it was Tänak's turn to win. But it was a hair's breadth away, because a few kilometers before the finish on the last stage the Estonian had gearbox problems, and he feared that he would not finish at all. But it worked out just right, and Hyundai's first victory in eight months was a fact.

Rally Estonia will be something else entirely, because Estonia may be fast, but it is far from easy. The speed is sky-high, and with frequent changes in the surface and constant jumps, it means there is no time to relax. Accurate notes are very important here, because the faster you go, the more punishing even the smallest misjudgment becomes. The stages are usually quite smooth in the first run due to a lot of hard surface, but it can get rutted and difficult in the second run as over 40 cars have dug themselves down into the gravel. And although the weather is usually dry and warm, sudden downpours can turn the high-speed challenge into a dangerously slippery fight for survival. The duo in the cars need commitment, rhythm and trust in each other. Lose momentum here and you are gone, and if you go off the road at these speeds, the car is most likely not drivable afterwards.

Roads and tires

The roads in Estonia are very similar to the roads in Finland. They are usually wide forest roads with a hard surface at the bottom, but as on all forest roads there is some small gravel on top that the first starters have to "sweep" away. There are a lot of high-speed jumps and long stretches, but also sections with narrower and more technically demanding periods. So here the drivers have to adjust from the previous gravel rallies this year, where the average speed has been low, to now drive and hold full throttle over small hilltops and loose bends.

During the Acropolis Rally, Hankook delivered far below par with their gravel tires. They didn't seem to be able to handle the extreme heat combined with the rough roads, as there were punctures above a low shoe. Almost everyone suffered from punctures, some because they hit sharp rocks, some because they were a little off the road, but what was remarkable was all the punctures NOBODY knew anything about. They had punctured without being close to anything, and days after the race Neuville said something interesting, because he claims they had internal damage in their tires, which had obviously happened during the mounting of the tires on the rim. The tire wasn't even okay to start with, because just because of compression it was losing air all the time, Neuville explained. So here Hankook really has a job to do before this race and the next. They have gone from stable without punctures, to very unstable with lots of punctures, and that is of course the wrong direction. That is therefore a factor we have to take into account when considering the tipping possibilities here. Hankook denies Neuville's claims, but who would admit such mistakes?

Race info

Rally Estonia will run over four days and will consist of 20 special stages totaling 308.35 km, divided into 1.76 km SSS on Thursday, 120.64 km on Friday, 125.76 km on Saturday and 60.19 km on Sunday. There are 11 cars entered in the Rally1 class, 5 from Toyota, 3 from Hyundai and 3 in Ford from M-Sport.
For Hyundai, the usual three are driving: Thierry Neuville, Ott Tänak and Adrien Fourmaux. For Toyota, these four are driving: Elfyn Evans, Kalle Rovanperä, Takamoto Katsuta, Sami Pajari and Oliver Solberg. And for Ford, these three are the ones who are starting; Gregoire Munster, Josh McErlean and Mārtiņš Sesks. A total of 42 cars will start.

The rally has its main base in Tartu, and it all starts with a spectator stage (SSS) that is run on Thursday evening a little north of the city center. But first thing in the day, the teams run a shakedown for a final check. The spectator stage is only 1.76 km long and is, as always, a show for those who want to watch the rally and can't get out into the forest. On Friday, four stages are run north of Tartu and three southwest, while on Saturday, all are south of the base, and the spectator stage (SSS) is also run once more. The race ends on Sunday with three stages southwest of the main base.

What happened in Greece and what will Estonia be like?

Thierry Neuville had another troubled rally during the Acropolis Rally in Greece. Neuville initially had a perfect starting position on Friday, but already on Friday's third stage he suffered a puncture, which was followed by another puncture on the following stage. This sent him sliding down the results list and his starting position was significantly worse on Saturday. And as if that wasn't enough, he punctured again during the first stage on Saturday morning. To make the weekend even worse, he ended the rally on Sunday by destroying a shock absorber and also having technical problems, so that the race was completely ruined. Neuville still ended up fifth because of all the trouble everyone else had, and the Belgian is now fifth in the World Championship and will start fourth in Rally Estonia as Ogier is not starting.
Neuville did not test in Finland like his team mates did, but he tested in Estonia the following week. The Belgian has relatively good results here before with third, fourth and second places, but he has never won here. Without tire problems, the reigning world champion is fast enough to win, but then he has to get rid of the Hankook demons. So now that we are moving to less rough rallies and more speed, we should not write off the reigning world champion completely.

Ott Tänak has been driving very well in recent races, and finally it worked out in the Acropolis Rally. With a perfect starting position on Friday and very sensible driving, he stayed out of trouble and led the race after day one. On Saturday, the Estonian drove excellently and won five of six special stages, while on Sunday he was second fastest, and finally won the race by 32.8 seconds ahead of Sèbastien Ogier. This was the first victory for Tänak and Hyundai this season, and it moved him up to third place in the championship. This means that the Estonian will start second in the race on home soil, as second place in the standings, Sèbastien Ogier, will not be starting.
The home favorite was not idle after his victory in Greece, because only a few hours after the award ceremony he took a private plane to Finland to test for three days with his teammates at Hyundai's base in the Jämsä region. And the first day of testing was already the day after the victory was won. Here they tested the setup for the next two super fast gravel races in Estonia and Finland, and the reports say that the tests were successful and the speed convincingly high. In addition, the gearbox and shock absorbers were tested, after his gearbox failed on the last stage in Greece. In addition, he also did tests in Estonia ahead of the race, and he drove a small rally in Estonia to get even more test kilometers. So this guy has really prepared for the two races to come.

Kalle Rovanperä was the driver I had great faith in in Greece after a very encouraging finish in Italy the previous race, as well as positive tests before the Acropolis Rally, but how wrong I was. Rovanperä was back to where nothing was right, and the Finn never found the flow in the car. In addition to being run over regularly, he also suffered a puncture on SS6 on Friday. With a poor starting position on Saturday, he continued to lose time, and on SS11 he braked a little late, drove off the road and destroyed a driveshaft, lost his brakes and finally blew the gearbox. So then the race was broken. The former double world champion restarted on Sunday in the hope of taking some Super Sunday points, but suffered another puncture on SS15 and all hope was gone, but he came second best on the Power stage and took home four championship points. Rovanperä ended up being the worst Toyota driver.
The Finn only had one day off before he was back behind the wheel. On Tuesday after the fiasco in Greece, he was in southern Estonia to test for the next race, but he admitted to the Estonian press before the test that his confidence is not at its peak these days. But these roads that will now be in the next two rallies are Rovanperä's favorites, and he was extremely positive after the test. "I'm pretty sure we can do something good here," he says of the race he won in 2021, 2022 and 2023. And if he finds the flow with Hankook on the Estonian roads, the others should find the gas pedal to keep up.

Elfyn Evans knew we would once again lose time as the first man on the road in Greece, but he drove smart. Evans aimed to drive as fast and controlled as he could on Friday without getting into trouble with a puncture or other nonsense. Because he was fully aware that it could give him free positions at the end. And he was absolutely right! The Briton kept the air in his tires and was honored with a fourth place and important championship points, even though the others behind him in the standings are closing in on the championship. He still leads this, and will once again be first on the road when they start Rally Estonia. Of course, there is no advantage, but the penalties are not as severe here as in the previous races, and if he drives as smart as in Greece, he can limit the loss on Friday and attack good times on Saturday and Sunday. Evans, like Rovanperä, has been to Estonia for testing and fine-tuned the setup before the race. "So far everything feels pretty good in the car. We are still working on a few things to see if we can find improvements. But overall it feels pretty good so far," said Evans after the test. The Briton has competed in this rally five times before, and has never finished lower than fifth. His best finish came in 2022 when he came second, behind Rovanperä and ahead of Tänak. He has three other fourth-place finishes.

Adrien Fourmaux had his best gravel rally in a long time and ended up third. The Frenchman, who has struggled with driver errors and technical problems this year, had a good starting position on Friday in Greece and drove fast. He took three stage wins on Friday and finished the first day in second place, just three seconds behind Tänak who led. Fourmaux continued his good pace on Saturday, but on SS10 he also got a puncture after hitting a rock on an outside corner. The loss of time meant that he lost second place, but only dropped one place. He held this place with full control for the rest of the race and finally collected a good result again. But in Estonia his best result is seventh place, and that came in a Ford three years ago. Like Tänak in Hyundai, Fourmaux has tested in Finland and Estonia before this race, and reports say that it went quickly. If he gets things right on the first day of racing in Estonia, he can be in the fight for top positions again. And not least stage wins on Friday.

Takamoto Katsuta would probably rather just forget the entire Acropolis Rally, because he had a puncture on the first stage, and those problems continued throughout the weekend, culminating in Saturday's fourth stage. A too-late braking into a corner sent him onto a gravel edge, where he was left with a broken race. There were not enough spectators nearby to get the car back on the road, and the day was over. On the last day of the race, Katsuta chose to start ahead of his good friend Rovanperä, even though he received a four-minute time penalty, solely to help his friend with a better road position, because Rovanperä had a greater chance of powerstage points than Katsuta himself. Which he did by coming second best.
Katsuta has also tested on the roads in Estonia with the Toyota teams, but little is written about how it went. The Toyota driver has driven this race several times before, but a fifth place is the best he has achieved here in 2022, and unfortunately I don't have faith in a top position this year either.

Summary and tips

There could be exciting features and good times from the drivers who are in the learning curve with Rally1 cars. Sami Pajari, Oliver Solberg and Martins Sesks are all three drivers who love races like Rally Estonia and Finland, and have done well in lower classes before. So keep an eye on them. In addition, drivers like Fourmaux and Katsuta could find themselves taking stage wins on Friday due to their starting positions.

Rally Estonia is a race that is fast, very fast, and is a great fit for drivers from the region, like Tänak, Rovanperä, Pajari and Martins Sesks. They have been rallying here their entire careers and know how to drive faster than their competitors on such roads. But then there are the tires, can the drivers trust them after the last two races?
Tänak has not struggled so much with the tires, but rather with understeer on his Hyundai i20, yet he has fought at the top! There is no doubt that he can win on home soil, because he has done it before, but then he has to beat Kalle Rovanperä, the Finn who has won the race the last three editions. If it is going to happen, it will probably have to happen this year when Rovanperä is struggling like he is. But even with his tire problems, I think those two will be the ones who will fight for the win in this race if both of them stay away from punctures. The two will start second and third on Friday and will probably be hampered by that, but I don't really see who will drive from the two throughout the weekend. I think the home favorite will draw the longest straw and my main tip will be:

WRC at 10:00: Ott Tänak wins (2.35)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 10:00: H2H Adrien Fourmaux – Takamoto Katsuta: Adrien Fourmaux wins (1.65)
WRC at 10:00: H2H Elfyn Evans – Takamoto Katsuta: Elfyn Evans wins (1.60)
WRC at 10:00: Kalle Rovanperä wins (2.40)
WRC at 10:00: Kalle Rovanperä over 5.5 stage wins (1.93)
WRC at 10:00: Sami Pajari over 0.5 stage wins (6.20)
WRC at 10:00: Adrien Fourmaux over 1.5 stage wins (2.00)
WRC at 10:00: Sami Pajari over 7.5 points (1.68)
WRC at 10:00: H2H Sami Pajari – Takamoto Katsuta: Sami Pajari wins (2.95)

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