WRC Central European Rally 16-10-2025

Another Toyota dominance at the end of Rally Chile, and although Hyundai was in the lead on both Friday and the beginning of Saturday, the race ended as it often has this year, behind one or two Toyota drivers.
Now the long series of gravel races is over and three races remain on the calendar. There will be two asphalt races and one gravel race before a world champion is crowned for 2025. First up on asphalt is the Central European Rally which runs in three different countries (Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic). Last year, Ott Tänak won by just seven seconds ahead of Elfyn Evans and 40 seconds ahead of his teammate Thierry Neuville. It would surprise me greatly if there is a podium this year, and we will try to shed light on why during this analysis.

Race info

The Central European Rally is run over four days with 18 special stages, a total of 312 km on gravel. Based in Passau, a town on the border with Austria, the event starts on Thursday with a shakedown and two special stages, before six new stages are run on Friday. Six stages are run on Saturday and four stages are run on Sunday. For Toyota, Evans, Ogier, Rovanperä, Katsuta and Pajari will drive, while Hyundai will field its three regular drivers Tänak, Neuville and Fourmaux. M-Sport Ford will field its regular duo this time, which is Munster and McErlean.

The challenges of CER

The WRC Championship runs rally races on three different surfaces during the year, ice/snow, gravel/sand and tarmac. So when a world champion is crowned, it is a complete driver who has done the best on all of these surfaces. Some are of course specialists on one surface, but the best are good at everything. The tarmac surface that they now encounter provides by far the best grip with these cars, and we have some who excel here in particular. Ogier, Rovanperä and Neuville are among such drivers, and although Tänak won here last year, he is actually a “gravel and snow driver” more than tarmac.

WRC's own words for this rally are: "The rally, which takes place in the Bavarian city of Passau, offers a mix of roads unlike any other on the calendar. One moment it's wide and flowing through the Czech hills; the next it's narrow, technical and slippery through the forests of Lower Bavaria. Add in the autumn weather that can change from hour to hour, and you have a rally where conditions are never constant – and confidence is everything."

No two days, or stages, are the same in the Central European Rally. Rally teams must master an ever-changing mix of road surfaces, widths, cambers and grip levels as they move between countries and regions. Some sections resemble traditional German tarmac, while others are more like rural Czech hillclimbs, bumpy, blind and deceptively fast. October often brings rain, fog and temperature fluctuations. Tyre choice becomes a game of chance, and mud dragged onto the road by cutting corners only adds to the chaos. Drivers must adapt quickly and manage risk, while still maintaining a high pace. Precision and courage are essential – especially on slippery, shady sections, where one misstep can end in a ditch and the race is over.

Hyundai – A troubled season

For those of you who have followed me and read my WRC analyses, you have most likely noticed that Hyundai has had a season marked by problems with the cars, and problems with the new Hankook tires. The challenges are still in the queue with dissatisfied drivers and a car that it seems they can do little with! If we now stick to the two asphalt races this year including Rally Monte-Carlo, Hyundai only has one third place, two fifths, two sixths and one seventh place as a result. Results they are far from satisfied with, and hope they can improve here.

For the previous race on asphalt, Rally Islas Canarias, Hyundai brought their 2025 model that had not been tested much on this surface, and all the cars struggled with the setup. Therefore, before this race, they have lined up in a local Belgian rally with Neuville to get more test miles on the car. The Belgian was happy with his test rally, but said it was impossible to say what the performance level is, because even if he felt comfortable in the car, they would have needed a Toyota to start to compare the speed.

Tänak has had to change the engine in his car and will therefore not be fighting for championship points for the factory team for the rest of the season. If he had continued to score points for the team, he would have received a five-minute time penalty before the start because they are only allowed to change engines twice during a season. And this is Tänak's third engine! He still gets his personal points in the championship. Since Hyundai has no chance of winning the factory world championship, they therefore do not care about the points the Estonian could have scored and rather let him drive for his own opportunities without a time penalty.

In the asphalt races earlier in the season, the drivers struggled with understeer in their cars, losing tenths of a second in every corner to the Toyota. Because when a car understeers, the car still goes a little straight ahead even though the drivers turn the steering wheel and the drivers have to slow down. This can be caused by many things, but the setup of the shock absorbers and how much the car pulls on the front wheels in relation to the rear wheels are factors that affect this. And the technicians are unable to find the balance between this and road grip.

Adrien Fourmaux therefore asked the team to consider whether to use the 2024 car instead, as it worked well on asphalt. They tested this in Belgium on the last weekend in September. Tänak drove tests with both the 2024 model and the 2025 model to compare, and the conclusion was clear. “Last year the car was competitive on all the asphalt rallies of the season, so we wanted to compare the two versions. We tested and compared, and there is no reason to go to the Central European Rally with the 2024 car. We all agree on that,” revealed Hyundai driver Fourmaux in an interview with the French website Rallye-Sport recently. In addition, Fourmaux has also driven rallies, not just one, but two, to test as much as possible. So Hyundai is definitely taking the problems seriously and has left every stone unturned.

Toyota – Dominant from the start

For the team that will take the World Championship for the manufacturers, things have mostly gone smoothly this year. They have won 10 out of 11 rally races this season so far. They have always entered five cars and have had much more testing than Hyundai. This means that they lead the manufacturers championship by a good margin, but they are also number one, two and three in the drivers' championship. And a lot will happen if one of them does not take the World Championship title!

But, not everything has been smooth sailing for everyone there either, because their Finnish star has struggled a lot with grip this year. So Rovanperä has been testing a new asphalt layout and new rear wings on his car to see if it has any impact on grip. He won't be able to use them in competition, but it may give him some answers on what he needs to do next to get the confidence he's looking for.

Toyota has won both asphalt races so far this year, and in the Canary Islands Rovanperä was in a class of his own, winning almost all the special stages. Now he will have tough competition from his teammates Ogier and Evans, so we will see who is the best of the trio in Toyota. Toyota is doing like Hyundai and using a local rally to test on asphalt. Ogier is driving a race in Austria and showing how serious he is about taking his ninth World Championship title. This is also an advantage for Ogier over his teammates, because neither Rovanperä nor Evans have a testrally on the program before the Central European Rally. On the other hand, Toyota has given all its drivers a test day in France to be more prepared for what is to come.

Ogier will start first on the road in the Central European Rally as he took over the lead in the World Championship after the previous rally, and unlike gravel, it is an advantage to start first in asphalt races. This is because the road is then clear of gravel and dirt that is dragged into the road when the cars cut the corners. Evans, who will start second on the road, believes that the Frenchman's advantage will be minimal if it is dry. However, if it rains, Ogier will have a significantly greater advantage, he says.

A little bit of information about the drivers

Thierry Neuville is disappointed and frustrated because the car is not working. Drove testrally on home track and seems to have "found" something, but does not know if it is enough compared to Toyota. Starts fifth and is afraid of rain. Won in 2023 and was third last year.

Ott Tänak is driving for himself and the co-driver for the rest of the season. Tested both the 24 and 25 models of the Hyundai on asphalt. He is fourth in the World Championship and is Hyundai's only hope for glory. Won last year, came third in 2023.

Adrien Fourmaux has driven two testrallies, some no other competitor has done. Is at times the fastest Hyundai driver, but makes too many mistakes. Won this race in Rally2 two years ago. Starts seventh on the road.

Elfyn Evans starts second on the road and has a nice position. Has previously done well in CER. Only drove one day of testing before the race. Came second here last year and drove off the road in 2023.

Kalle Rovanperä is not friends with Hankook, but seems to be getting more and more out of it. Won the last asphalt rally by a landslide. Has the advantage of track racing experience. Came second in 2023 and did not start last year. Has announced that he will give up rallying after the season. Favorite together with Ogier!

Takamoto Katsuta has been very unstable this year, but he won't lose his job. He's probably protected by Toyota Japan because it's important commercially to have a compatriot in the team, otherwise he would have probably lost his place to Oliver Solberg in 2026. He finished fourth last year, and fourth in the previous asphalt race. Lacks self-confidence.

Sébastien Ogier has driven testrally in Austria in addition to a clean test day in France. CER has never been kind to Ogier. Finished fourth in 2023 and went off the road last year. Thinks the feeling is good on asphalt now. Haven't been outside the top three this year. Starts first. Favorite along with Rovanperä.

Summary and tips

The Central European Rally is a challenging rally due to its varying nature from day to day. The weather will have a big impact on the results, but it is always an advantage to start early in asphalt races. There is no doubt that Toyota is the big favorite to win the race, but 1.42 odds on a Toyota winning are not tempting, even though there should be a 95% chance of it happening.

The weather will play a big role here, but as most people know at this time of year, it is very unstable. Therefore, my thoughts are more towards the safe side when it comes to betting, and then those are my two favorites that I have in mind. Both Ogier and Rovanperä can win this race if the punctures stay away. Of course, there will be massive media pressure on Rovanperä now that he has announced the end of his rally career, but we have to believe that he can handle it. But I will leave him to alternative bets and my main tip for the race is therefore:

WRC at 08:00: Sébastien Ogier top 3 (1.55)

Breaking news (right after the analysis was published): Ott Tänak has chosen to drive the 2024 model after a second test of the two car models, and that Adrien Fourmaux and Thierry Neuville are driving with brand new shock absorbers to test with a view to 2026.

Alternative bets:
WRC at 08:00: H2H Kalle Rovanperä – Thierry Neuville: Kalle Rovanperä wins (1.58) 3/10
WRC at 08:00: H2H Sébastien Ogier – Ott Tänak: Sébastien Ogier wins (1.50) 4/10
WRC at 08:00: Ott Tänak best Hyundai driver (2.65) 6/10
WRC at 08:00: Kalle Rovanperä wins (3.50) 2/10
WRC at 08:00: Sébastien Ogier wins (2.80) 2/10
WRC at 08:00: Toyota as winning car (1.42) 7/10

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