Analysis of:

World Cross-Country Skiing Championship Musgrave – Lapalus

Analysis Information
Tournament
World Cross-Country Skiing Championships
Match start
01/03/2025 14:00
Units
3 / 10
Odds

2.14

 

Then it's time for race number two in this championship. After a fantastic sprint, Klæbo deservedly won on the men's side, and so did Sundling on the women's side. Now it's 20 km ski change, and there are completely different requirements to assert themselves at the top. It's the men who start first. This is actually the first time they've done 20 km ski change, and not 30 km ski change, which has been standard in previous championships. Ski change means that they will first go 10 km classic, before switching to skate skis and going the last 10 km.

The classic and skate skiers go on different trails. First, they go three laps of 3.3 km in classic style, and then three laps of the same distance in skating. The classic part is very tough, and it will be exciting to see if anyone dares to set off from the start. The skate trail is a little easier. Which makes it a little more difficult to start from. But if there is one thing we have learned, it is that in ski switching there will be big differences at the end.

 

Klæbo is the biggest favorite. Many will try to go hard along the way to shake off Klæbo. If the field gathers towards the finish, it will probably be a good fight for the Byåsen runner to sprint to victory. Krüger showed in the World Cup in Planica that he was able to move away right after changing skis, and Klæbo was never able to close the gap. Klæbo then ended up "only" with silver. This is something that also needs to be done in this championship. Amundsen, Nyenget, Vermuelen, Krüger and others are interested in setting a high pace and trying to soften up the really strong sprinters like Klæbo, Jenssen, Pellegrino and Anger. It will be very exciting to see how this develops, but I am sure that this will be a fantastic competition and top

Hugo Lapalus: The French medal hope

This colorful Frenchman is easy to spot in a field, with his distinctive classic technique on uphill slopes. Where he jumps more than he slides on his skis, it is impossible not to notice him. He is a runner who likes to be tough. He comes from the heights of France and has a solid engine. This season he has performed consistently well, with a top 3 finish in Davos in the 20 km classic. There have also been two 20 km ski changes this season, where he has been number 9 and number 8 respectively. He is always around the top 10, and is very consistent. He has his absolute best results at altitude, but it is not altitude in Trondheim, which Lapalus would have liked.

He finished 16th in ski jumping in the previous championship.

Musgrave: The Norwegian Briton

Musgrave is a runner who thrives in Trondheim and has trained countless hours on these trails, as he lives in the area. He is known for performing well during championships and has a good ability to sharpen his form when it really matters. This year's season has been a bit uneven for the Briton, with both ups and downs. His best placement this year is a 3rd place on a stage of the Tour de Ski. In the 20 km ski change, he has been number 6 and number 13. He also has a good history at this distance from previous championships, with positions 14, 7, 7, 11 and 12. In addition, he was number 2 in the trial World Championships last year, which shows that Musgrave thrives well at this distance.

Conclusion

I think both runners will be keen to give it a good go tomorrow. They are 1-1 at this distance this year, but I have a feeling that Musgrave is extra keen to show his best side on his "home turf". Considering his history, I find it strange that he should be the underdog against Lapalus in a H2H duel. I think 2.14 is a good price for Musgrave to win this duel.

We play the following:
Norway at 14:00 – Musgrave – Lapalus: Musgrave (2.14) 3 units

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