Wolverhampton–Chelsea

There is football – and then there is the Premier League. A place where the rain never quite lets up, where floodlights cut through the evening like the play of colour in cathedral windows, and where the stories are as heavy as the stands are steep. This is the league where Saturdays smell of wet wool and freshly brewed coffee, where hopes are born in August and crushed in May, and where every kick-off carries with it the echoes of everything that has come before.

The Premier League is more than tables and trophies. It is love and suffering, inheritance and rebellion. It is pub conversations that last a lifetime, children who inherit a team before they can read, and adults who never stop believing – even when they should know better. Here poetry is written at full speed, with knobs and heart, on the greenest carpet in the world.

And we have winners and losers. Some will stay, while others will go down. And today's two teams glimpse the contours of two very different realities on the horizon; for while Chelsea sees San Siro, Santiago Bernabeu and Allianz Arena, Bramall Lane, Carrow Road and Deepdale are unavoidable for Wolverhampton.

Wolverhampton in free fall – relegation is approaching

I know it's early to announce relegation in February, but if Wolverhampton manage to get out of this predicament, it will be the turnaround of the ages. Because with 1-5-18, and 18 points up to safe ground, it looks undeniably dark. So dark, that Derby's record from the 07/08 season can be broken? Doubtful, as one win would be enough to touch the dubious record of The Rams. But that doesn't change the fact that all warning lights are flashing at Molineux Stadium.

But it looked brighter for a short period. Wolves should have. Because in January they had a period of 2-3-0, where they took points from Newcastle and Manchester United, among other things. But the last two weeks they have fallen back into old sins, and especially the last match, at home against Bournemouth, was disappointing. Most ball, most chances and highest xG, but still a loss. And with 5 points in 12 home games they are by far the worst home team in the league, and a high-flying Chelsea should look forward to the task.

The Wolves from Birmingham have probably already started the clean-up, so that they can take the Championship by storm from the start. Jørgen Strand Larsen has left the sinking ship, and this was another sale that would have happened in the event of relegation anyway. Otherwise, it is worth noting that Wolves are missing both Toti Gomes and Ladislav Krejci in the back ranks. But take note of Mateus Mane, folks. He is at the top of both shots (20), shots on target (9) and expected assists (0.94) since his debut in December, so this youngster is hot.

But 45 goals conceded in 24 games is not optimal when facing a team that has really found its scoring form.

Chelsea under Rosenior – Champions League hopes alive

It's not often that I speak up for a coaching change, but so far it seems that Chelsea have done something smart. And not least; the timing of their decision was wise, as there is plenty of time to still get something out of the season. Because they have a crush on the best, and the dream of the CL is alive and well. And under Liam Rosenior they are in full swing in the Premier League, with 3-0-0, and he has also recorded a victory in the FA Cup, as well as full wins against Pafos and Napoli in the Champions League.

And it's one thing to be 6-0-2 under a new manager, but Chelsea have really been sparkling in front of goal since Rosenior arrived at Stamford Bridge. 12 goals is impressive, considering that includes two games against Arsenal, as well as Napoli and a tough away game against Crystal Palace. And now that they're only one point off the top four, they should have a realistic belief that both Manchester United and Aston Villa can be caught up. But then you have to go home from Birmingham with three points.

Unfortunately, it seems that the game is coming too soon for Pedro Neto and Reece James. Metro reports minor injuries, so there is hope. But luckily Joao Pedro knows where the goal is, and even if Cole Palmer is not quite finding himself today, Chelsea have plenty of offensive power. More than enough to make short work of the league's weakest team.

Betting tips Wolverhampton - Chelsea

The Chelsea side we saw away to Arsenal in midweek was a bit of a letdown. Understandably so. If you go all in at the Emirates you can easily be punished. Here, however, we expect an away team that takes control and will press on until the points are secured. And if Wolves fall behind, they have little choice but to throw everything forward. Birmingham is on fire, and Chelsea can easily punish a Wolves in crisis.

But Chelsea concede over 1 goal on average away from home, so it is not inconceivable that they will need two goals to secure the points. And if we follow this pattern, corners will also be produced here. Only Newcastle and Arsenal produce more corners than Chelsea, with their 5.88 per game, and only West Ham concede more than Wolves, with their 6.13, so here we have several exciting betting opportunities.

But we can't avoid goals. A more offensive Chelsea is also a more vulnerable Chelsea. And when the home team is 45 goals behind, it is not unlikely that they can concede at least two more here. Therefore, we try the following bets;

England at 16:00: Wolverhampton – Chelsea: Over 1.5 goals to Chelsea (1.71)

Alternative game:

England at 16:00: Wolverhampton – Chelsea: Over 5.5 corners to Chelsea (1.88)