Western Sydney Wanderers – Macarthur Fc 16-02-2025

The 19th round of the series concludes with what could easily be one of the most entertaining matches this weekend. And we've found reasons why the home odds may be a bit too high. But we know this league too well to go for a clean home win.

Analysis of the teams

There are many interesting aspects to consider before WSW takes on Macarthur Fc. But you can't ignore the table situation. At the time of writing, they are both outside the top 6, but placed in 7th and 8th place, they have every opportunity to make a difference. Especially the home team.

Western Sydney Wanderers (home team)

Because WSW has played one less game than their competitors, they can really secure a place in the play-offs with a win here. And a team of this caliber should aim to participate in the Grand Final. Nothing less.

But they have stumbled a little too often this year, and before the game against Sydney they looked tired. And that's why a local match was perhaps exactly what they needed. Because in that game they looked extremely fired up, and also led 2-3 until the 97th minute was played. So we'll see how Anthony Caceres' equalizer will affect Alen Stajcic's team.

And if anyone is hanging their heads, there are few teams that have as many strings to play on as WSW. Kraev, Borello and Milanovic are a goal-scoring trio, but I would be surprised if Stajcic doesn't find a place for Sapsford in the starting lineup after his impressive performance last time. Plus, they have Antonsson in the backcourt, so there are plenty of options if plan A fails.

Macarthur Fc (away team)

With a 2-3-4 at home and a 5-1-2 away, Macarthur Fc are a distinct away team. We've talked about it before, but it's probably due to their precise counter-attacking football. It suits them better when they can lie low against teams that press high. They rarely get that opportunity at home at Campbelltown Stadium.

But this time around, there are reasons why they might be a bit less effective on the counter-attack. Because without Germain, they are missing one of the league's most dangerous players. The French legend has done well at Macarthur, and he was quickly appointed captain. A talisman, if you will. But his behavior last game led to a suspension, and that means the 1.96m tall football nomad, Harry Sawyer, will have to start at the top. He arrived from Finnish VPS in January, and the little I have seen of him so far does not bode well. Especially not on the pitch.

Our best betting suggestions

This match could easily go over 2.5 goals. But without Germain at the top of the Macarthur team, we won't touch that bet at such low odds. But we believe we have found other bets that have far better value than a pure overbet.

Corners

There are almost always a lot of corners in this league. And if Macarthur are planning to stay low, counter-attack, but not have a striker who can take care of the ball up front, then I think most corners to WSW is a good bet at 1.75 odds. But it will be a bet based on gut feeling, because Macarthur is actually producing more corners than WSW on average, so far this year. 4.94 vs 5.71, to be exact.

Goal

It is possible that I am emphasizing the absence of Germain too much, but he is the team's captain, top scorer and best player. And now that Drew has also been sold, I would have expected lower odds on the home team. But we never know what this league can pull out of the hat, and therefore it feels safer to put your money on goals. Especially when the home team is among the teams that score the most.

Because WSW has scored over 1.5 goals in 5 of 8 home games, and in total their home games have an average of 4.3 goals. So I feel reasonably confident that this game will be as entertaining as the previous ones at CommBank Stadium. But at 1.43 I don't buy over 2.5 goals. Then I find far better value in trying to predict which of the teams will score over 1.5 goals. Because it has to be if the game is going to go over 2.5 goals.

Our conclusion of today's main game

I agree with the bookmakers that this match could be a hot one, but I'm afraid the away team is too weakened to replicate what they've shown before. At the same time, we know they're best away, so I'm staying away from the selection. But WSW's offensive delegation is so good, and now that we know they need points to get into a qualifying spot, it feels good to land the following bet;

Australia 07:00: Western Sydney Wanderers - Macarthur Fc: Over 1.5 goals to WSW (1.68)