Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers

Some games are played – others must be won. Wellington Phoenix – Western Sydney Wanderers belongs to the latter category. For the hosts, this is no longer about form or development, but about pure survival in the hunt for the playoffs. The margins are small, and the math is brutal: five points must be picked up in two games. Nevertheless, hope lives on, and in the A-League we know one thing – as long as there is a theoretical possibility, there is also faith.

Wellington Phoenix – rising from the ashes

Like the phoenix, Wellington Phoenix have risen in impressive fashion. After Giancarlo Italiano left the club, bringing with him his more controlled and technical philosophy, something has happened. In came Chris Greenacre – again – and once again he has given the team life. And hope. A team that has traditionally been tight and goalless has suddenly become one of the league's most entertaining. With an average of 3.2 goals per game, only the Newcastle Jets can match them.

Offensively, they have found new heroes in Eze and Piper – two players who have each redefined the team in their own way. Eze with his creativity and unpredictability, Piper with his rawness in the air. And most importantly: this is a team that has nothing to lose. At home, against the league's weakest team, there is only one way to go – forward.

Western Sydney Wanderers – jumbo of the year

Western Sydney Wanderers, on the other hand, is the story of a season that never caught fire. Under Alen Stajic, expectations were high. With names like Brandon Borrello, Ibuzuki, Kraev, Barbarouses and Kuol, this should have been one of the league's most feared attacks. But the goals failed to materialize, Stajic disappeared and Gary van Egmond took over, on an interim basis. After the season, Ufuk Talay awaits – a hiring that has already caused reactions.

The defeat against arch-rivals Sydney FC last weekend sums it all up: 0–2 at home, and all hope is gone. Now it's about avoiding the humiliating "Wooden Spoon" trophy. At the same time, there is unrest in the squad. Players are missing, the coach has to resort to youngsters, and the structure seems to have fallen apart. Defensively, they are weak – among the worst in the league – and away from home they have leaked goals at a steady pace. In fact, they have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five away games.

The season can't end soon enough.

Conclusion – wrong favorite

Wellington can't afford to wait, can't afford to control – they have to go forward. And that really suits them perfectly against a Wanderers team that both gives away space and concedes goals regularly, especially away from home. When we also know that Wellington has had a completely different offensive flow of late, it's hard to imagine them not creating enough chances here.

What surprised us, and what made us end up where we did, was the bookmakers' choice to name the away team as favorites. In our opinion, that is completely wrong. Especially considering what is in the pot. Both teams have something to play for, but there is no doubt that the home team has the most to win here. And when the bookmakers also expect a lot of goals, we have to try a bet on the home team, at very good odds .

This is the last shot in the chamber for the Wellington Phoenix – the aim is set – now all that remains is to fire.

Australia at 07:00: Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers: Over 1.5 goals to Wellington Phoenix (2.00)

P.S. We're releasing this analysis early, as we don't think the bookmakers have their affairs in order. But they will probably adjust during the week, and the odds may then fall below what we consider to be value.

If so, you can bet a few kroner on a home win. We'll add that as an alternative bet, so let's hope that bet doesn't fall too much in odds too;

Australia at 07:00: Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers: Wellington Phoenix to win (2.55)