Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers 29-03-2025

Brimming with confidence after Wednesday's goal, we believe we have found value in Australia once again. When the in-form Western Sydney Wanderers take the plane down to New Zealand, they should be aiming to bring home points in their suitcases. But with Wellington Phoenix in the hunt for the playoffs, we're dropping the marking game.

Wellington Phoenix – playoff hopes alive

Little has gone the way of the yellow-clad New Zealanders. For the home team, the table has been turned upside down this year. Last year they were in 2nd place, but now we have to go all the way down to 11th place to find Wellington Phoenix. It must hurt the home fans to see their team lose game after game, but the truth is that Wellington deserves no more than what they have received.

As mentioned, the home team is in a difficult position. They are 0-1-4 in their last five games, and it has actually been seven games since they managed to keep all three points themselves. This was against Macarthur FC, who have also not impressed much lately.

The hope of a place in the playoffs is probably not great for Wellington, but we know that it means a lot to qualify, and therefore they will probably give it their all as long as the theoretical hope is alive. But a miracle is needed, because time is short, and the games left are few. Going from 2nd place to not even being able to qualify would be catastrophic.

There has been variation in how many goals the team has conceded, but the common denominator has been losses. The team's goal difference is 19-31 in 20 games played, and my gut feeling is that they will struggle to score against the visitors, even though the visitors tend to concede against most of them. If the home team is lucky enough to get a goal, I don't think it will be enough to get three points in this game.

There aren't many names that have left their mark on me, but top scorer Kosta Babarouses is a man worth mentioning. As one of two strikers, he is the one who scores the most, if you consider goalscorer bets. A goalscorer bet on the underdog might be a bit of a stretch, but it can be entertaining, if you think the home team will get a goal or two. Barbarouses also takes the penalties for the home team, so that increases the probability somewhat.

Wellington are not going to impress us with any new exciting attacking tactics, quite the opposite. I think the team will lie low and wait for the counter-attack opportunities. And while this may be the sensible way to face a team that is so much better, I will be surprised if they manage to shut out the visitors.

We also know that Giancarlo Italiano is principled when it comes to playing style. Even though this year's team lacks basic skills, they are forced to play the ball along the ground in the build-up phase. Preferably under pressure and on marked teammates. The recipe for goals against.

Western Sydney Wanderers - the goal guarantor from Sydney

The visitors from Sydney are ready for three more points, and will bring their excellent form with them when they travel to New Zealand. We can never be sure, but this should be a match that WSW fans can look forward to. And so am I.

WSW are actually unbeaten in seven games, and they have scored at least two goals in five of them. The visitors have actually scored 47 goals in their 20 A-League games this season, which is impressive to say the least. The goal difference is 47-34, which means they are also conceding quite a few.

The visitors love attacking football, which is something I like about this team. The pursuit of goals never stops, and there are few other teams that can match the offensive strength of this team. There is little doubt that the visitors come to increase their goal scoring statistics against Wellington Phoenix.

Unlike the home team, there are many players on the team who can contribute offensively. And in this year's team you will find goal scorers in all areas. But if I have to name a few, Borello, Sapsford, Kraev, Antonsson and Milanovic are names that are worth noting. All of the players mentioned have scored at least six goals.

There are few teams I'm more excited to see play than WSW. The game is played early, but if you have the chance it's worth seeing. I think the red-clad team will deliver an exciting game with high pressure that suits the hosts' elaborate playmaking style.

Bet Choice – Away Marking or Goal Bet?

You may have already understood where I'm going, but goals are inevitable when WSW is involved. With an average of 2.35 goals scored per game, it's a gold mine to get good odds on goals for the away team. Over 1.5 goals for the away team gives a whopping 1.70, and I think that's pretty incredible. It takes very little for the away team to score 1.5 goals, when they average well over two.

As I said, the home team concedes relatively few goals, but I think they will struggle to keep the visitors at bay for 90 minutes. A win for WSW is also a good bet, but as I said, I don't think Wellington will get away with only conceding one goal against WSW. Therefore, I end up with the following bet;

Australia at: 05:00: Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers: Over 1.5 goals to Western Sydney Wanderers (1.70)