Vitoria Guimaraes - Benfica 19-04-2025

With five rounds of the league to go, the race for the top spot in the Portuguese League is still deadlocked. And even though only one of these two teams can ultimately claim the top spot, there are plenty of factors to consider when Benfica head north to face Vitoria Guimaraes.

Vitoria Guimaraes – in the shadow of big brother

It is not easy to challenge the big four in Portugal. It has always been that way, and it looks like Sporting, Porto, Benfica and Braga will be in the top four this year as well. But as long as there is a theoretical possibility of European Cup play, the home team will probably cling to that hope. And with 15 points left to play for, and a gap of 11 points up, hope is slim. But it is a hope. And whether it is Europe or big brother Braga that is lurking on the horizon, is unknown. But they have good reason to go on the attack.

And away games against Vitoria Guimaraes are no easy task. With an 8-5-1 record in 14 home games this year, Benfica know they have to work hard if they are to go home with vital points. The last time Vitoria Guimaraes lost a home game in the series was on September 21, 2024, and the last three times Benfica have made the trip up here they have gone home with 1 point each time.

And if motivation had not favored Benfica, I would have tipped 1X to 2.30 in odds. But motivation is a strong driving force in football, and it is taken into account this time. And without Borevkovic (quarantine), they are missing one of their best defenders. And Benfica is a team that can exploit that kind of thing. In addition, Liga Portugal is a league with few goals, and it is often small margins that tip matches.

But Vitoria Guimaraes has impressed me this year, and the numbers support the theory that Benfica will have to work for the points here. But if they end up behind, it doesn't have to be negative for our main game. But more on that a little later.

Benfica – balance must be restored

With 38 league trophies and 26 cup trophies, there is no club that can match Benfica at home in Portugal. But last year it was Sporting who won the league, and at the time of writing it is Sporting who are at the top. On a better goal difference. And in the last two rounds of the season they will first be visited by Sporting, before they finish with an away match against Braga. So the importance of winning this match is enormous.

But with 13-1-1 at home, and 9-2-3 away, it's easy to see where the shoe is hurting. And they showed in the last round of the series that they are also human. Then they messed up and only managed 2-2 at home against Arouca. And they know they have to move up a few notches if they are going to defeat Vitoria Guimaraes.

But with a squad that is virtually injury-free and a squad that is overflowing with talent, they know they have the qualities to take all the points. The few injuries they have are long-term, and former AZ Alkmaar striker Pavlidis, who is also the team's top scorer, will take his chances. Otherwise, Akturkoglu, Di Maria, Bruma, Kokcu and Amdouni will be waiting in the wings to do the job if the Greek is unable to. And it would be unwise to play against such a star-studded squad, when they are also enormously motivated to take something.

Smooth and rich in content

When two such good teams, with such a good defensive history, meet, there are no guarantees of a goal celebration. Especially not in Liga Portugal. But that doesn't mean the matches aren't action-packed. Cards and free kicks abound, as do corners. Unfortunately, there are no bookmakers that offer odds on cards and fouls, but fortunately we often get good odds on corners in this league.

Because even though Benfica are legitimate favorites, we doubt they will overtake. They had 39% ball possession away against Porto, 55% away against Sporting, and last time they visited Vitoria Guimaraes they had 0.88 in xG against the home team's 2.34. And in the three previous meetings here, the home team has created 6, 5 and 7 corners against today's opponent. So 6 corners on average.

And this season, only Benfica, of all teams, has created more corners than Vitoria Guimaraes. The home team has created 6.62 corners per game so far this year, and the odds of over 3.5 corners for the home team at a whopping 1.86 are quite tempting.

But Benfica only gives away 2.72 corners on average, and that is probably the main reason why the odds are so high. But what about the away team? Yes, as mentioned, they create the most corners of all teams with an average of 7.28, and in a match where only 3 points are good enough, they will probably be around their average this time too. And therefore over 5.5 corners to the away team tempts at 1.79 odds.

But what do you do when you have two teams that produce a lot of corners, where the corner odds on the home team are the most tempting, but we fear the motivation of the away team a little? Yes, we land on the total number of corners in the match. Not sure it's the right choice, but it's the safest choice. Then you're not as dependent on hitting the desired match picture. And we find comfort in the fact that the matches of Vitoria Guimaraes and Benfica average 10.55 and 10.00 corners respectively.

Because we know Benfica is chasing the league title, and we know they have both Sporting and Braga left after this one. And that's why they have to go for goals here. And in the pursuit of goals there will be corners. And if they get goals, and go behind, we have a home team that is also good for many corners to save us from the predicament. At the time of writing it seems foolproof, but we know better than that. So feel free to make your own assessment. But we land on the following bets;

Portugal at 21:30: Vitoria Guimaraes - Benfica: Over 9.5 corners (1.82)