Viking – Valerenga

It's boiling in Stavanger today. Viking's brilliant season could end with a solid and highly anticipated gold. 1 poor point ahead of Bodø/Glimt, who are expected to take Fredrikstad in Bodø, is the starting point before the match starts. Vålerenga is by no means a dream opponent for Viking, so time will tell if adrenaline and skill outweigh nervousness and mistakes. Viking's quality is there, so it remains to be seen if Vålerenga will again be able to influence this year's Elite Series as they want. No one expected 3-1 against Bodø/Glimt, so anything can happen here!

Viking - the 34-year wait may be over

Jensen and Aarsheim have done what they can to keep the team calm in a city that is itching for gold. It feels like an eternal week where everyone is waiting for Sunday. But the coaching duo is holding back on preparations for this match just like the previous 29. The focus is on this being something to be enjoyed and rejoiced over, not feared. In addition, Jensen has come out with an ever-so-small mental statement heading north: he is 100% sure that Bodø/Glimt will take Fredrikstad. Perhaps this is reserved for his own players, anything other than a victory will mean silver for the dark blues.

The squad is healthy and fine. The form is good and the self-confidence is exactly where it should be. Down to earth enough to realize their own weaknesses and what they need to watch out for, in addition to being completely aware that what lives in the team is more than good enough to take on Vålerenga. What weakens Viking somewhat is Falchener's suspension. The defender has had an important role in the run-up, with the winning goal against FFK in addition to the calmness and offensive power he has contributed with outside. Who Jensen/Aarsheim chooses to go for remains to be seen, but the choice most likely falls on Heggheim or Stensness. Both will be more than ready to step in. At Vålerenga, things are somewhat worse…

Vålerenga – Let's extend the wait for the dark blues

Vålerenga once again has the main role in influencing the outcome of this year's Elite Series. Few people imagined that they would win 3-1 against Bodø/Glimt and turn everything upside down. To once again have the opportunity to send the gold to Bodø. They have a 5th place to play for and they will naturally end the season on a high. What weakens the team is that they are now missing 5 players, 4 of whom would have been part of the starting eleven. Captain Bjørdal is quarantined and is probably the biggest loss. In addition, Ambina, Nogueira, Ofkir and Drammeh are out. With this, it is an excellent opportunity for others to show themselves, without pressure, and that cannot be underestimated in any way. Vålerenga is not giving anything away for free here.

Conclusion: this will be incredibly exciting and a difficult match to analyze

This is one of those games during a season that is extremely difficult to analyze. Dare to go for goal bets, based on Viking's goal average? Are the odds good? What about corners, where they have been leading? And Vålerenga are not bad away either, maybe they will shock open with an early score? In a game where so much is at stake, stones must be turned over both 2 and 3 times to find something that is within a certain "safety zone". It is not easy, but here are some games that have been considered (not in order of odds value), with the main game presented at the end:

• Both teams to score (1.63): Both teams have scored in Viking's 8 of 14 home games this season. The same number applies to Vålerenga away. However, Viking have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 home games, while Vålerenga have scored 4 in their last 4 away games. This one feels a bit risky considering form, recent stats and what's at stake.
• Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (1.81): This one follows the first, but only because over 2.5 goals is available for as little as 1.30. For a full 11 of 14 home games at Viking have ended over 2.5 goals. But here Vålerenga is dragging it down with 7 of 14 away games. But again, the last 3 of 4 away games for Vålerenga have ended over 2.5 goals. If you dare to go for a goal bet combo, this is a good bet, as the last 4/5 matches between these have also ended over 2.5 goals.
• Viking over 2.5 goals (1.69): Viking averages 2.71 goals at Lyse Arena, while Vålerenga has conceded an average of 1.85 away from home. The opportunity is there for a heroic Viking team to go all out, knowing where the goal is and kill this game as quickly as possible. But Vålerenga has been stingy lately, so consider this one carefully.
• Over 10.5 corners (1.71) : Viking = corners, we've seen that all season. The last 4 home games have averaged 12, while for Vålerenga it has averaged 13.75. Viking has to come out on top here, and Vålerenga's game plan is as simple as going on the counterattack and creating an advantage. Anything other than shots and therefore corners is hard to imagine, unless the game dies out early or cynicism plays too big a role. There is something unpredictable about that, but the game itself is tempting.
• Over 2.5 corners to Vålerenga (1.58): Vålerenga has 5.5 corners in their last 4 away games, and their last 5 games overall average is 7. Against Viking in March they ended up with 8 corners. Low odds on over 2.5 corners, if we look at over 3.5 we land at a whopping 2.25. But we have in mind a Vålerenga without any key players + a very special occasion here.
• Over 3.5 cards (1.82): It's the last league match. Everything is at stake for the home team, the away team is here to destroy. There is no next league match to worry about, here there is only more to do. Tore Hansen is listed as the referee. In his 17 matches this season, he has handed out 62 yellow cards, which gives an average of 3.65. It is clear that the players are doing more here, much led by a heroic Tripic. Viking averages 1.21 (yellow) cards at home, while Vålerenga's average away is 1.71. Overall this season, Viking is at 1.62 per match, while Vålerenga is at exactly the same average. For the record, Viking's matches average in 4 of the last 5 and Vålerenga at 3.6 (of which 2 are red).

This is a very special match. Where we don't know how the tactics will change before the match starts. It feels too risky to bet on goals, shots and therefore corners, as well as handicaps. But it has to be a fight, if it's 0-0 far out in the 2nd half, we have to push hard on all levels. The following is what is going on here:

Eliteserien at 17:00: Viking – Vålerenga: Over 3.5 goals (1.82) – odds not available at the time of writing, updated continuously!

Alternative games:

Eliteserien at 17:00: Viking – Vålerenga: Over 10.5 corners (1.71)

Eliteserien at 17:00: Viking – Vålerenga: Over 2.5 corners to Vålerenga (1.58)