Viking – HamKam – 08-11-2025

It's really starting to smell gold in Stavanger, and what a rollercoaster it's been lately. From a point drop and all hope gone in Sarpsborg, to a real spark again in a crushing home win against Brann, to all hope gone again when Bodø/Glimt beat Brann in Bergen, to new hope again when Godset was beaten in a hard-fought match, while Vålerenga won 3-1 against Bodø/Glimt. We have a record-breaking title race with two teams that have an incredible amount of strength in them and that hardly let the supporters breathe in the race. There are 3 games left for both teams, 3 extremely important games, when 1 point separates 1st and 2nd place. The setting when Viking takes on HamKam couldn't be better, the pressure has never been greater at Lyse Arena – here you just have to sit back and see what more "twists and turns" we'll be served in the final stretch.

Viking – Now it matters

Viking can't afford to slip on a banana peel now, they know that very well. The optimism is palpable, the planning for a possible gold party has already started and the belief in their own skills is strong. Because the team has shown that they have throughout the season, even if there have been some slip-ups here and there. Viking is definitely a gold team and towards the end, the psychological part becomes the most important thing to deal with. This is easier for the guys in the north, they have gained solid experience in recent seasons in handling such pressure. This is where Jensen and Aarsheim have the most to work with.

There is little to say about Viking's form, and they deliver when they have to, well exemplified against Strømsgodset away, where the home team took the lead and Viking had to show what they have. Viking now has 4 straight wins where there have been 2 or more goals in each match. They have also held tight in the past and they are thus 13-3 in goal difference in the last 4. They have also made Lyse Arena a fortress, where the season shows 10-2-1 and an impressive 35-14 in goal difference. The only loss has come against Bodø/Glimt. Viking at home is a team that attacks from the first second to create dominance and uncertainty in the opponent, and who also does not give up with one goal. The defensive uncertainty that has fallen them in previous seasons has been replaced with a calm security in Roseth and Falchener, two stoppers who also contribute strongly forward on the field. The chess move of bringing Haugen back is proving to be a potential golden move. Christiansen is in better shape than ever and every attack smells of burning, often led by a playful Austbø and creative tacklers from Tripic. The composition of the team is more or less complete, in addition they have avoided injuries and are as strong as they can be against HamKam.

HamKam was beaten 5-2 in Hamar. A match Viking dominated from the first second, before 20 minutes had passed it was 3-0 to Viking. But HamKam is in much better shape now and will not give anything for free to Viking here. In many ways it could quickly become a dogfight like against Strømsgodset. HamKam is undefeated since 1-0 away against Tromsø on September 21.

HamKam – It's starting to look like something and the ticket for next season is within assured reach

HamKam has looked like a relegation team for much of the season. Especially after the losses against Sarpsborg and Strømsgodset, it looked dark. But then goalkeeper legend Thomas Myhre has suddenly put in place a belief and strength in the team that looks like it will be able to secure a place in the Eliteserien next year. 3 straight wins in the Eliteserien against competent opposition in Vålerenga, Kristiansund and Sandefjord. The remaining opposition is two away games against Viking and Brann, and a very manageable home game against Haugesund. It should be enough with at least 3 points in these games, considering a good goal difference and the opposition the teams below them face. But that does not mean that they consider 3 points to be out of reach in Stavanger. Now they have a good defensive structure and 8-3 in the last 3 games and know they can take something from Stavanger if they get Viking frustrated and stressed.

HamKam home and away have been quite different this season. At home they are a little more free, the attacks are easier, but they are also more open at the back. In 11 of 14 home matches both teams have scored, while away it is far more stingy with 5 of 13 matches with BTS. The home and away table also supports this, with a point capture of 21 at home and 13 away. If we look at the last 5 away matches they are 1-2-2 and 6-6 in goal difference, which in many ways underlines the away form for the season, which is 3-4-6 and 14-19 in goal difference. It is at home that HamKam has intended to capture the most points and that is also what has happened. Even though they have an upward good form, the transition from the grass at Briskeby to the artificial turf at Lyse Arena is somewhat brutal. We have to go back to 2022 the last time HamKam got points from Stavanger. Furthermore, HamKam's form on artificial turf away from home this season is 2-3-4. The two wins came against Strømsgodset and Kristiansund, two teams struggling below them in the table.

HamKam is more or less injury-free and is dependent on the midfield structure being under the direction of Mares and Ibrahimaj. If Jonsson, Ekeroth and Lien maintain their form and have another good day at work, they can quickly cause problems for Viking. Anything other than a 3-5-2 formation for Myhre's men will be surprising and they will probably play almost the same as the team that has won the previous 3 matches. The task is one of the most difficult of the season, but anything can happen in football - that will probably be the common thread in Myhre's pep talk.

Conclusion: Goals will be scored, can Viking handle the pressure?

A 0-0 draw here is probably one of the most unlikely this season. Viking has scored in 12 of 13 home games, 8 of which both teams have scored in. Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 10 of the games. It is somewhat tamer from HamKam's side with over 2.5 goals in 6 of 13 away games and BTS in 5 of those, but historically between these teams there have been over 2.5 goals in the last 5 of 5 and BTS in 3 of those. A lot is also at stake for both teams, both will attack. Let's look at which games are of interest, not sorted by odds value:

• Viking wins + over 2.5 goals (1.66): Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.41 and is to be expected both considering both teams' recent form and the match at Briskeby. Viking dominated at Briskeby, it could easily happen this Saturday night too, they are in brilliant form and HamKam will feel the strain. The uncertainty is how Viking copes with the mental pressure here – a lot is at stake. But it is a good bet at usable odds.
• Viking over 8.5 corners (1.84): Viking at home = corners. We have seen that all season, so it must of course be checked. The average at home is 9.77 corners. The last 3 home games have averaged 9, note 16 corners against Molde, 6 against Brann and 5 against Bryne. At Briskeby it ended with 12 corners for Viking. What HamKam allows away is averaged somewhat lower, at 5.69. Their average in the last 3 away games is 5, which reflects the season average well. This is certainly an interesting game, but perhaps not where the main focus lies.
• Viking -4 corner handicap (1.62): HamKam takes an average of 4.38 corners on away pitches, far lower than the home team's. In their last 3 away matches they have increased their average, but it will be a different match against Viking. At Briskeby they got 4 to Viking's 12. The fact that a large handicap with low odds is given on Viking is a combination of everything, but perhaps does not take HamKam's last matches and form into account. An interesting side bet.
• Viking -1 European handicap (1.78): Viking has won 2 goals or more in 3 of their last 5 games. Such a bet naturally ignores HamKam's recent form. But Viking has goals in them with an average of 2.69 scored per home game. And of course we have the 2-5 game in mind here. Exciting betting opportunity here.

The gut feeling is that Viking will go for it at HamKam to kill the game early. They also won't give up at 1-0, even though the goal difference can't be matched by Bodø/Glimt's. The point is that they can kill the game at, for example, 3-0, like against Brann and 5-1 like against Bryne. They are also painfully aware that they can't relax with a lead, ref. Sarpsborg match. Therefore, the main bet goes to Viking winning and that there will be over 2.5 goals here.

Eliteserien at 18:00: Viking – HamKam: Viking wins + over 2.5 goals (1.66)

Alternative games:

Eliteserien at 18:00: Viking – HamKam: Viking -1 European hcp (1.78)

Eliteserien at 18:00: Viking – HamKam : Viking -4 corner handicap (1.84)