Viking – Fredrikstad – 22.06.2025

The mood among the people in the oil town couldn't be much better before they welcome Fredrikstad to an ever-so-small top match on Sunday. Viking is sitting firmly in 1st place, 6 points ahead of Brann (although 1 match more played) with a whopping +18 in goal difference and is full of confidence before this match. Aftenbladet constantly reports about a ringing good atmosphere on the training field and it is a true joy and faith to see throughout the entire team. Fredrikstad has also had a solid start to the season where they are now in 4th place. There is (mostly) a very solid defensive structure in this team, but they are coming off a slightly shaky period before the international break with 1 draw and 2 losses. Will they be able to catch up with a Viking team, at a packed Lyse Arena, who haven't lost since March 30th, and who absolutely know where the nets are? There will be offensive power against defensive structure on the agenda this Sunday - buckle up!

A Viking team that looks better and better

This year's Viking edition has given a real belief that anything can happen this season. They are really showing muscle in the Eliteserien and the cup, and soon Conference League qualification awaits in addition – none of these are being downgraded. Everything is suddenly possible this year, contrary to the belief before the season that it could be challenging in both league and cup games. The youngsters are striking and the experienced ones are showing the way. And the combo young talent – ​​experience is the essence of this year's Viking team. When things have been slow, the youngsters have shown the way, in the form of a technical Austbø, a headstrong Heggheim and a steady Falchener. When the youngsters have wavered, Tripic, Bell and Svendsen show the way – but mostly it is the collective that is pulling this Viking train on the right track towards what has so far been a brilliant season. Now everyone has had a good break, without any notable injuries or suspensions, with away wins against Bodø/Glimt and Molde in the backbone before Fredrikstad comes to visit.

Viking mostly plays in an offensive 4-3-3, especially at home, and there is little indication that we will see anything different on Sunday. A small trend we have seen this year's season, especially at home, is that Viking can start slowly – often trailing in the 1st half – before a completely different team enters the 2nd half. There must be something to the halftime chatter of Lunde Aarsheim/Jensen. In 3 of 6 home games, Viking has trailed, but turned around to win in the 2nd half. It is also a consistent problem with offensive focus that the defense can fail. In 10 of 12 games, they have conceded goals – against all kinds of opposition. But we have conceded over 2.5 goals in 9 of 12 games this season. Another important element to consider is an enormous production of corners – which naturally goes hand-in-hand with the offensive style. Viking averages 11 corners per home game (!) and with an away average of 6.33 this gives an average of 8.67 corners per game. Fredrikstad, on the other hand, is in the middle of the tree in the corner statistics with an average of 5.50 away, where they concede an average of 4.75 corners on away field.

Key statistics

• Conceded goals in 10 of 12 matches
• Only 1 loss in 12 games – that loss came in round 1 away against Vålerenga
• Average of 11 corners for at home
• Average of 3 goals scored per home game, backed up by an average xG of 2.49
• An average of 4.33 goals per home game – offensive strength with a vulnerable defense

Fredrikstad – success in building on last year's cynical and defensive structure

Fredrikstad have built on a solid season last year, where they finished in 6th place. The cynical, defensive structure can be very frustrating for opponents. This is something Andreas Hagen has really put into the team and it works – they won the cup last year and this year's season has yielded results. In their 4th place they know they can challenge any opponent in the Eliteserien and only Rosenborg directly above them, and B/G directly below, have conceded fewer goals.

The defense line Fall – Fredriksen – Woledzi have all had a brilliant season so far. They keep their composure at the back and build up the game well. The midfield is in good shape, especially Eid has a nice flow in the game during the day, and at the top is Holten who has shown himself with 3 assists and 3 goals this season. Everyone should have a good day against a Viking team that has scored 3 goals or more in 5 of 6 home games this season. What is worrying is that FFK now stands with 1-2-2 and 6-8 in their last 5. This is a far cry from Viking's 5-0-0 and 16-3 in goal difference. If we rely on that, there is a class difference here, but with a good break and focus on building on the brilliant start to the season, this could quickly become more even than the numbers suggest. Last season, FFK took the scalp against Viking 3-2 at home and managed 1-1 away. Although Viking's goal average is high, FFK's is low: only 3 out of 10 matches have ended with over 2.5 goals, 1 out of 4 of these away. They are 1-1-2 and 4-5 away. But the last away match was against Bryne, and there they conceded 4 in a miserable performance.

Key statistics

• Low-scoring away matches: only 1 out of 4 matches has ended with over 2.5 goals
• 3 out of 10 matches have ended with over 2.5 goals
• Definitely better at home with PPG 2.17 versus away with PPG 1.00
• Loosens up more in the 2nd half with 1.40 goals versus 0.90 in the 1st half
• Produces an average of 5.5 corners away and concedes an average of 4.75

Tactical offensive vs defensive match approach that smells more of goals than goal drought

There are no significant injuries reported – Viking is still missing Stensness, Roseth and D'Agostino, but none of them have been a big part of this year's successful team on the field. Fredrikstad is at its strongest here and will try to frustrate Viking. This could easily be a match where we will again see something we have seen in the aforementioned 3 out of 6 matches at Lyse Arena: the away team takes the lead to half-time, before we see a different Viking team after the break. That trend was particularly visible at the start of the season, but may have leveled out a bit more recently, but it is still worth keeping in mind if panic should spread with the betting slip at half-time.

We think Viking will pull this off, mainly supported by recent form and a very hungry Viking team that will go from being a near-team to becoming a successful team. They are on a superb winning streak and will do everything in their power to maintain this. Fredrikstad was a bit shaky before the international break and have not won since the 1-0 win against KFUM on May 16. Corners at Viking games are always relevant, but here it is more tempting to mark and play on goal.

Game suggestions:

Eliteserien at 7:15 PM: Viking – Fredrikstad: Viking wins + over 1.5 goals (1.86)

Alternative games

Eliteserien at 7:15 PM: Viking – Fredrikstad: Over 10.5 corners (1.83)

Eliteserien at 7:15 PM: Viking – Fredrikstad: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (2.02)