Viking – Fire

Vestlandsderby. One of the definite highlights of the year, at least for most people who live in the sunny western part of our beautiful country! A high-flying Viking takes on a low-flying Brann, but such factors don't necessarily mean much in a derby - here the little extra often comes out, especially for the local players. There is undoubtedly a hatred between the supporter groups, of the friendly kind, which creates an electric atmosphere in the stands. So we'll see if the Battalion brings its drum..

Here you just have to buckle up – goals, temperatures and excitement are expected at a sold-out Lyse Arena!

Viking – They know they can, especially at Lyse Arena

At home, Viking produces goals in spades and the players themselves say that the 12th man plays an extra big role in matches like this. Against Bodø/Glimt they were extremely effective and really put the guys from the north in their place, a crash landing in many ways after the CL adventure. Even without key players like Austbø and Roseth, the team has functioned excellently as a unit – as a top team naturally should. Getting the former in particular back in the starting eleven will be a pure bonus. That Viking opened with a loss away to HamKam was perhaps the wake-up call that was needed, because after that it has flourished. Then we ignore the letdown against Aalesund where the coaching staff thought it was smart to field a very reduced team. In terms of squad, things look good for the home team – Austbø is doubtful for the match, now it is mostly about match form, while Roseth is not expected back until May. Østbø is also somewhat doubtful, so here it may well be that we will see Belko between the posts again.

What is perhaps most impressive about Viking so far is not just the goals, but the way they come. It is fast, direct and with a self-confidence that is contagious throughout the team. The offensive relationships are solid, and it seems like anyone can appear on the scoresheet. At the same time, it is worth noting that Viking do not necessarily need to dominate the match for long periods – they are deadly when the space first arises. We saw that clearly against Bodø/Glimt. In a derby, where the match often takes on a life of its own, that is an enormous strength. If they get the crowd involved early here, it could quickly be a night Brann struggles to resist.

Fire – Unrest in Bergen

When the focus is on a single drum and it also doesn't work out in a sporting way, then the clouds are dark over Bergen. The focus is in no way desirable before such an important match – Alexandersson knows that well and has probably spent every minute of the week keeping the focus tight among the player group. The player group knows that the performances have in no way lived up to expectations – 1 win and 3 losses in the first 4 of the year say it all. In terms of the squad, Brann is struggling with a number of injuries. Gudmundsson is out until the end of the month, at least, and in addition, the attacking weapons Magnusson and Castro are missing. The attacking line Finne – Holm – Thorsteinsson simply has to have a good day at work.

Brann has struggled with rhythm in their game, and especially defensively it has looked vulnerable at times. It has become too easy to play through them, and in a match like this it can be brutally punished. Nevertheless, it is precisely such matches that can turn a season around. Brann has quality in the team, and they know what is required in a derby. If they manage to slow down the pace, stand more compact and exploit the transition opportunities, then they are certainly capable of causing problems for Viking. The question is whether they can withstand the pressure that comes from the start. Because Viking is going to come out hard here.

Conclusion – It's hard to watch for anything other than goal shows

Viking at home throughout last season meant goals. Viking, in their first two home games this year, has scored 9 goals, so the trend continues to the highest degree. Not that it is realistic to believe that such a high goal average is maintained, but when Brann has also averaged 3.75 (total) in their games, the first thing to look at is goal games. Both matches last year were also very entertaining (3-0 in Stavanger and 3-1 in Bergen), so more or less the same is expected here. However, other stones must also be turned to see what alternatives exist (not sorted by odds value):

• Over 10.5 corners (1.68): Viking produced an insanely high number of corners last season, but this season the trend is not the same: the first 2 home games the team has produced 3 corners on average. In the first 4 games overall there have been 5.5 corners on average. Brann, on the other hand, averages 8.5 away and is on exactly the same average overall. If we look at Viking's first 4 games with total number of corners, the average is a whopping 13.5, while for Brann it is an average of 14.5. In other words, a corner game of over 10.5 corners at a comfortable odds doesn't have to be that bad!
• Zlatko Tripic gets a card (2.80): What is a Vikings match without a Tripic card? Not quite that crazy, fortunately, but Tripic is the Eliteserien's most hated player for a reason. And in a derby, Tripic comes out in 110, no one needs to doubt that. Tripic actually only has one yellow card (away against Vålerenga) so far, but we know that a derby means a lot to the captain, so as a fun side bet this is definitely something to consider. Also check out card bets on Heggheim (2.80) and Askildsen (3.20) . They have 2 cards each so far this season and are often involved in tough duels.
• Both teams score + over 2.5 goals (1.69): Viking has now actually kept a clean sheet in 2 games in a row, so BTS is in other words at 50% this season. But over 2.5 goals have been scored in 3/4 games. Brann is on its side with BTS in 3/4 games and over 2.5 in the same number. BTS can be a bit scary here, because Viking's defense has settled in well. But these two games separated out do not give good odds, so this one can be considered even though it in no way takes the podium position in the odds selection here.
• Viking wins (1.80): For a clean home win we get good odds. Viking with 2/2 at home and with good form, while Brann stands with 3 losses in 4 first, indicates that this should be a good bet. Viking crushed Brann 3-0 in a particularly important match last fall, and after the crushing win against Glimt there is a certain expectation that Viking will fix this. In addition, the team is starting to become good at handling pressure – a notorious problem for Viking in several years before – so this should be considered.
• Viking wins + over 1.5 goals total (2.00): We move up a notch and the reason is simple: over 1.5 goals in both teams' 3/4 matches. And we have to go far, far back in time to the last time there were under 1.5 goals between these teams. With strong belief in a home win here, it is easy to pick a combination that lifts a win even higher. You also get Viking over 1.5 goals at 1.55, which is nice in that sense, but a selection + goal bet on total is even better.

You probably don't have to read between the lines to understand where the main game is going here:

Eliteserien at 18:00: Viking – Brann: Viking wins + over 1.5 goals total (2.00)

Alternative game:

Eliteserien at 18:00: Viking – Brann: Over 10.5 corners (1.68)