Viking – Fire – 05-10-2025

The stage is set for a fierce Vestland derby when Viking hosts Brann on Sunday afternoon. Lyse Arena is filled to the brim, the weather gods are setting up with classic Vestland weather (possibly in a slightly exaggerated style even for the West; welcome to us Amy) and both teams are fighting for the gold. Even though there are 7 games left (Viking) and 8 games (Brann), this could be a season-defining match. The Vestland derby never disappoints and there is a lot at stake in this match. This is a match with a guarantee of entertainment, none of the players enter the mat this day with a half-hearted pace.

Viking – one focus: gold

Viking has a small advantage in only needing to focus on league games towards the end of the season. The next round of the cup is not until March 2026 and there is also no European game for the Siddis. With such a starting point, it is extra disappointing when the team leads 3-1 and inexplicably manages to concede 2 goals in the 90+8 and 90+9 minutes away against Sarpsborg. A game they had complete control of until half-time, from which the formation was changed to a defensive style and Sarpsborg was gradually allowed into the game. Unforgivable. And coaches and players know that, who have themselves expressed regret and sleepless nights after the game. It doesn't help much, it has to be reset and ultimately 1 point has to be considered better than 0 points.

Against Brann they get nothing for free. Viking is the team that will basically defend their position while Brann is chasing, and there is always a small kind of mental advantage in Brann's favor, they have strictly "nothing to lose, but everything to win". The advantage for Viking is that Brann is in Europe and there they naturally give everything. Brann took on Utrecht on Thursday night and there they did the job with a deserved 1-0 win. A very important win to have any hope of a European adventure. Such matches require a lot of energy, especially when they had to fight off what came at the end. But one should not underestimate the effervescent feeling of victory and the motivation it gives towards this weekend's match. Physically, with fewer rest days for Brann, Viking naturally has a small advantage. Viking should exploit it as best as possible.

There are currently few injuries to report in the Viking squad. De Lanlay is the only reported absence but he has not been a contributor in terms of play in this year's Viking edition. In other words, the team can field its strongest crew as long as no injuries occur before that time and it will be an explosive Viking team that will attack from the first second.

Fire – Upward trend with 12th man in the back

Brann's supporters must get a lot of kudos for being among Norway's best supporters (and yes, this kudos comes from a Rogalin native). They support their team and they are naturally strong in Stavanger. That counts a lot in a derby and the supporters always make a good noise in Stavanger - I have personally experienced the away supporters making more noise than the home supporters, on several occasions, so here the home fans have their own challenge on Sunday. Sportingly, Brann have not lost since the 2-0 loss against KFUM on July 19. Before that they won 3-1 against Viking and they know that on a good day they have a good hold on Viking. But a derby is of course a derby and anything can happen.

Brann did what they had to against Utrecht, with 100% effort until the final whistle. The atmosphere at Brann Stadium was naturally euphoric. This was one of those games where points had to be taken in order for there to be a chance for a table position that ultimately gives as long a European adventure as possible. The team is on an upward form curve, they take point after point in the series and they know well where the nets are. However, they know that Viking also has a good nose for goals with their 55 goals compared to Brann's 42, so here Brann's defensive four must be 100% turned on for 90+ minutes. They did the job against an imprecise Utrecht, but it will be just as tough to face Viking in Stavanger.

Of the most important absences, Soltvedt is currently out but has been reported back "early October", so we'll see what's in it. Wassberg is out for the rest of the season, while Opsahl is also back during October. All in all, Brann is also strong here, a little tired perhaps, but you don't need more than the word "derby" and everything that comes with it to get the extra vitamin injection of energy needed. They come to Stavanger to take 3 points. Alexandersson, in his euphoria, said in the interview after the Utrecht match that there will be a bonus for the players if there are 3 points in Stavanger, so we'll see if the board has approved this - that shouldn't be ignored.

Conclusion: Target guarantee and full ignition

We have to go back a long way in time to the last time there were no goals in these matches. And there is little to suggest that there will not be goals in this match against two such strong offensive teams that both want, should and strictly must take 3 points to keep pace with Bodø/Glimt and have a chance of taking the gold. Furthermore, there is naturally an ever-so-small hatred between the teams, especially for local players, Tripic himself is not exactly fond of Brann. And Bergen does not strictly have a loving relationship with Tripic either. Here it will probably be fire and flame. For many this match means extremely much and a loss is a direct blow to pride. We take a look at what value we get on goal plays, card plays and corner plays before we find out about the main game.

• Both teams score + over 2.5 goals (1.74): We have to go back to 2023 when Viking last won against Brann. After that, there have been 2 draws and the latest 3-1 victory for Brann. But, synonymous with all these matches is goals. Now it is the case that only 1 of the last 4 matches has ended with over 2.5 goals and 3 of 4 have both teams scored. But the odds for both teams to score are down to 1.47 at the time of writing and over 2.5 goals are also set at a low odds value, which is in the goal flair of both teams, at 1.52. Then the combo becomes the only natural choice in that sense with 1.74. A good odds and a good bet considering that Viking's last 4 of 5 have ended with over 2.5 goals (same number on BTS) and for Brann's part, the last 4 of 5 have also ended with over 2.5 goals and of these, 3 of 5 have seen both teams score. The season as a whole, 74% of Viking's matches have ended with over 2.5 goals and the same for BTS. For Brann's part, 73% of the matches have ended with over 2.5 goals and 59% with BTS. In other words, recent internal settlements cannot support this play much, but the form curve, recent statistics, the season of both teams as a whole and the starting point of the match can. Probably selected as a side bet in this context, mostly based on the fact that there is better value in other games for this match.
• Under 11.5 corners (1.98): Both teams can rightly call themselves corner teams. In the corner statistics, we find Viking at the top and Brann right behind. Viking's matches have averaged 8.22 corners, of which they have averaged a whopping 10.55 at home. Brann has an average of 7.45 corners overall, of which the average away from home is 7.18. In the last 3 matches, the average is 10 corners per match, but we have to go all the way back to April 2024 where there were 14 corners. In the last two matches, there have been fewer and this is perhaps something to keep in mind. Based on this, an underbet on corners is actually considered, as it can quickly become a battle for position, a recurring 1-1 match. Take this with reservations, over 11.5 corners are available at 1.72 in odds, but it is not easy to land on for or against on that. Here you follow your gut feeling.
• Viking over 6.5 corners (1.96): Again, there is a bit of an up-and-down with over- or under-betting on corners. If we take Viking's last 5 into consideration, they average a whopping 9.4 corners per game, especially the last two against Sarpsborg 08 and Molde, corners have come like pearls on a string. But then we have Brann, with a solid defense, how many do they allow? In the last 5, the average is 3.8. Viking produces corners to such an extent at home, but can they do it against Brann? Maybe it comes down to something as simple as slightly more tired legs at Brann, which means that Viking can allow a little extra, but that is speculative. This must be considered carefully, preferably assessed live in the game. Over- and under-betting in this game is certainly exciting, but statistics may crash a little too much to land anything with good faith.
• Over X cards (X): These matches, at least in recent years, have more or less a card guarantee. Almost regardless of the referee's judgment, there will be a lot to deal with. In Bergen there were 7 cards, one of which was a red card. In Bergen last year, where the teams also fought an intense battle at the top, there were 9 cards, again a red card, and in Stavanger it was actually a bit of a struggle with only 3 cards. But there is so much at stake now, the cards will come here.

Corners are exciting in this match and will be considered as side bets in combination with over 2.5 goals + BTS. Corners are in Viking's favor, and that is largely due to the fact that Brann will have to struggle more than Viking for 90 minutes here, with the Utrecht match fresh in the memory. What sits closest to the heart and gut feeling on the main game here is card games. There will be ignition in these matches and many indicate that we will see some cards here too. The game will therefore be:

Norway at 14:30: Viking – Brann: Over 4.5 goals (1.90)

Alternative games:

Norway at 14:30: Viking – Brann: Viking over 6.5 corners (1.96)

Norway at 14:30: Viking – Brann: Tripic gets a card (2.84)

Norway at 14:30: Viking – Brann: Over 2.5 goals + BTS (1. 7 4)

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