Analysis of:

VfL Bochum – Schalke 04

Anders

Written by: Anders

Analysis Information
Sport
Tournament
2nd Bundesliga
Match start
31/01/2026 13:00
Units
5 / 10
Odds

1.74

It's time for one of the highlights of the season in the 2nd Bundesliga: the Revierderby! We're not talking about the official Revierderby, but the more secondary one – in some combinations simply called the Ruhr derby. We're running the more official version. Schalke 04 turned the game around in the autumn and won 2-1, but now Rösler is sure that they can crack Schalke 04, despite 4 straight matches in a row without a win. But that's not without reason; Schalke 04 still have a lot to win after the winter break, with declining form. They have also signed two shooting stars: Dzeko and Ljubicic – the former made a strong impression already in his debut. Apart from the sporting aspect, there's already drama; Bochum were supposed to wear special edition black jerseys for this match, but it went down particularly badly with the Bochum fans – why should they wear colors other than their home colors on their home field? The end result was that the Bochum board decided that this special edition kit would rather be played against Paderborn on February 15th. It's not the first time there's drama in Bochum and it creates a certain amount of noise before a derby, but not of the serious kind this time. Anyway, we have a match to look forward to!

VfL Bochum – Improvement under Rösler

A name most people know from Norwegian football, Uwe Rösler, took over a sinking ship in October. At the time, Bochum had a poor win and seemed to be moving further down. Rösler has, by the way, reversed the trend and is 6-5-2 in his first 13 games. And he comes into his first derby with steely faith in his own team and says it is time to take the whole scalp against one of the big teams. Rösler has almost the entire squad available, except for Bero who reported absence from training due to illness and Ibrahim Sissoo who is out for a long period with an ankle injury.

Bochum has been somewhat better at home than away this season with a PPG of 1.56 and a +3 goal difference. They have good support from their fans and really need it here – Schalke has the unconditional support of their fans who come in large numbers to the Vonovia Ruhrstadion, just over half an hour away from Gelsenkirchen. Bochum know that they need both creative offensive power and a defense that can withstand dangerous counterattacks. They know they are facing a team that has scored less than last-placed Greuther Fürth (!), but it is also a team that has conceded by far the fewest goals in the league. If nothing else, a nice challenge for a home team that has scored 5 goals in its last 2 home games. It is expected that Bochum will stick to its usual 4-2-3-1 formation for this game as well.

Schalke 04 – Now comes the real test, with reinforcements in place

What Schalke has shown in the last 2 games does not resemble a team in 1st place. It has been very little creative and they have been lucky to have drawn against both Hertha and Kaiserslautern. Against Kaiserslautern they showed that they have a fight in them until the last second, where they recovered nicely from 0-2 in the 87th and 90th minute of play. There has been a lack of routine and creativity in the team recently, there were already signs of that in the late autumn. With that, Schalke has brought in veteran Edin Dzeko, who showed how important he can be already in the first game. The much-awaited jump-in in the 67th minute quickly proved itself again - the team simply became more confident and took over the dominance against Kaiserslautern. Dzeko showed pure strength and routine when he scored 1-2. That Dzeko is a perfect replacement for Sylla quickly becomes clear. Another important piece in leading this Schalke team forward is Dejan Ljubicic. With a long career in Cologne, he knows very well what it means to be at the top of the 2. Bundesliga. Ljubicic is expected to be ready for the derby and there is great excitement about it. With the combination of experienced Karius, Ljubicic and Dzeko with young talents and will, this looks promising.

Schalke have done relatively well away, with a PPG of 1.70 and a goal difference of +6. A recurring theme this season is that they have done just enough to take 3 points in several of their matches. Some luck, some routine and some skill – all combined, have led them to 1st place. Last fall they turned the derby against Bochum from 0-1 to 2-1 in the 76th and 79th minutes. This will undoubtedly be an even match between two teams that come very far with 3 points and are extremely hungry for just that.

Conclusion: An even game that could go either way

Betting tips in derbies are never easy. The extra element of surprises is more present and nerves play a bigger role. So you can be cynical and look at form and statistics, or move a little outside that picture and consider more human factors that may come into play. H2H last 4 matches have ended with 4 Schalke wins and 10-2 in favor of Schalke. Let's look at some options:

  • Both teams to score (1.74): The first natural alternative is BTS. Bochum has played with BTS in 5 of 9 home games and also scored in Gelsenkirchen. In (recent) history, 50% of these games have ended with BTS. Because we know very well that Schalke's defense is stable, led by a brilliant Karius. Only 3 of 10 away games have ended with BTS for Schalke. But in a derby it can open up more and Schalke showed vulnerability at the back by conceding 2 goals at home against Kaiserslautern last weekend, the first time Schalke has conceded 2 goals or more at home since April 2025 against Hamburger. The game is tempting, without relying too much on statistics but rather the setting, Bochum's goal form and that Schalke showed what they showed last weekend.
  • Schalke win – draw no bet (1.96): Led by new signings, Schalke looks more dangerous. Combined with a defense and a goalkeeper, taking the season as a whole, who are brilliant, all 3 points will soon end up with Schalke. It is available at good odds, although Bochum are considered favorites here by the bookmakers.
  • Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half (2.21): In the previous match, all 3 goals came after half-time. Bochum have also scored 53% of their goals in the 2nd half at home. As for Schalke, they have scored as many in the 1st and 2nd half, but they have conceded 100% of their goals in the 2nd half away. There is a lot to say that this bet is actually quite good, because goals are expected, but it could turn out well in the 2nd half before we see it. Overall, 8 of Bochum's 19 matches have produced over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half and only 4 of Schalke's 19 matches, so in that sense, statistics certainly do not support this bet, but rather (very) recent form and the derby setting. Less than 1.5 goals in the 1st half would have been an excellent bet, if the odds were not at 1.39.
  • Over 9.5 corners (1.66): Corners in derbies are always relevant. Bochum average 6.33 corners at home, Schalke 4.40 away. In the previous match, it ended with 17 corners. There will be two attacking teams here, both of whom will go all-in, so it is natural to expect shots on goal that result in a good dose of corners.

Cards are always relevant in derbies. Bochum average a whopping 3.22 cards at home while Schalke have 2.70 away. Bochum's season average is 3.21, the worst in the league, while Schalke's is 2.63. In the last derby, 3 cards were handed out. The referee for the occasion is Michael Bacher, who averages 4.83 cards. But, as always, it is extremely difficult to find odds on cards in the 2. Bundesliga, so please keep an eye out for any before the match starts on one of the booking sites.

Germany at 13:00: VfL Bochum – Schalke 04: Both teams score (1.74)

Alternative games:

Germany at 13:00: VfL Bochum – Schalke 04: Over 9.5 corners (1.66)

Germany at 13:00: VfL Bochum – Schalke 04: Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half (2.21)

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