VfL Bochum - Fortuna Düsseldorf - 27-09-2025

The weekend derby in Germany this weekend takes place in Bochum and the Vonovia Ruhrstadion. Bochum hosts Fortuna Düsseldorf in the kleines Rheinisches Revierderby . Kleines (small for those of you who have forgotten your high school German) because it is of course not the biggest in the region, but still big enough that the stadium is easily filled here and anything other than a win for both teams is a big defeat. And we don't have to go far back in time to the last time we were served two explosive and entertaining matches from these teams. Bochum lost the first relegation match 3-0, but miraculously turned it around in Düsseldorf and got another season in the Bundesliga. Of course, not as much is at stake in this match, but Bochum has had a terrible start that needs to be turned around soon. Fortuna is not much better with 2 wins in 6 attempts and a 13th place.

Bochum – There is a lot that is not right, and it hasn't been for a long time

After the relegation in the spring, the main focus was of course on getting the team back on track. But instead, there are several factors that indicate that the focus must be on a return to the 2nd Bundesliga. Instability within VfL Bochum is currently characterizing the club - both at the management/organizational level, in terms of sport, and in the expectations among supporters. It has been for a long time. Internal unrest has given the management a lot to worry about, and the most recent is that Dieter Hecking was dismissed on September 17. At the same time, sporting director Dirk Dufner disappeared out the door and with that, a reorganization is in full swing. That Hecking had to leave was probably no big surprise, the results spoke for themselves. But what is most corrosive, especially among the fans, is the frequent changes in coaching and management positions that make it difficult to both see and believe in long-term stability - tactically, in terms of sport and in terms of playing style. Bochum fans are extremely loyal, but much more is expected. Therefore, the pressure on newcomer Siebers is now extra great. He comes from the responsibility as U19 coach, and the plan is temporary, but such solutions are often the window ambitious coaches need. Siebers also knows Bochum inside and out, he has been there since the 14/15 season and is a good replacement with his preferred 3-4-1-2 formation. He has had a few days to turn the tide here, but the motivation with a victory in a derby could not be greater. Almost the entire most used starting eleven has several years in Bochum behind them, except for the back three, so one might have to ask themselves whether they need a couple of fresh heads in Siebers' first match, in a formation that is more or less the same as the team is used to.

However, the task could not be more challenging. Bochum is coming off 4 straight losses, even against what is currently relegation rivals Nuremberg last weekend. There has also been a derby loss against Schalke 04 and a home loss against opposition such as Preussen Münster. The result is 1-0-5 and 6-11 in the first 6 games of the season. The team is also struggling with injuries to Sissoko and Miyoshi, both very important contributors. The team is struggling in front of goal, but they actually produce enough that it does not have to be the case, with an average xG of 2.2 and 17 shots in each of their two home games. The will is there, the precision to a lesser extent. Another bright spot Siebers and the squad are focusing on is that they have a slight home advantage here, where they are generally safer and more dominant in terms of play. However, they face a Fortuna team that boasts a stronger away than home form this season.

Fortuna Düsseldorf – Underperformance increases pressure on Thioune

There is a bit more calm in Fortuna Düsseldorf. After a few turbulent financial years where the club has struggled, they have finally gotten back on their feet, both in terms of sport and finances. But of course it doesn't take much for this to turn around, which is why Düsseldorf is also starting to become a bit critical about turning around the underperformance so far this season. The team has a 4th place from last season to live up to, and therefore the provisional 13th place is disappointing. But things turn around quickly in the 2nd Bundesliga, a league that is one of the most even in European football, a league where everyone beats everyone and the road from 13th place to 7th-4th place is not necessarily very long. Fortuna opened the season regrettably with a 5-1 loss away to Arminia Bielefeld, before it was 0-2 at home to Hannover 96. After that, things turned around with a cup win, 2 away wins in a row and a perfectly okay performance in the 0-0 match against Karlsruher. There is definitely potential in this Fortuna team and it will take time to get the team settled. For 7 of the 11 players who have started the most this season are newcomers. The ones who have performed best are Muslija who came from Freiburg and Breithaupt who is on loan from Kaiserslautern. However, it is generally unstable, as last weekend's 0-3 loss against Darmstadt 98 was clear proof of.

Fortuna's match schedule is promising, however. They know they work away and can get something here. Afterwards, two home matches await against Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig before Hertha Berlin awaits away. Victory in all four of these matches means that Fortuna Düsseldorf is soon a promotion candidate again. There are certainly many positives for Thioune to pick out here and the belief is probably stronger in the team with more stability.

Conclusion

Historically, these teams are evenly matched. In 19 matches, 7 have gone in favor of Bochum and 6 in favor of Fortuna Düsseldorf. 10 of these matches have had over 2.5 goals, and the trend is particularly strong in recent years: we have to go back to 2017 when there were last under 2.5 goals in a match between these teams. There have been 6 matches since then, all of which have ended in a victory for one of the teams with over 2.5 goals in the matches. Furthermore, it can be noted that 4 of these 6 matches have only one of the teams scored in. The most recent example of this is the matches in May 2024 which delivered on all levels. Let's look at some alternatives (not in order of odds value):

• Over 2.5 goals (1.64): Matches between these teams in recent years have, as mentioned above, consistently produced over 2.5 goals. If we look at the teams individually in the last 5, Bochum has over 2.5 goals in 3 of these (only league matches) and Fortuna with the same number, 3. This is a good game, with two teams that consist of uncertain back lines, but who still have offensive qualities to produce goals. Furthermore, Bochum has actually shown strong tendencies in their 2 home matches with 3 goals and xG of 2.33 and 2.08. If the precision is better against Fortuna, it could quickly become goal-rich.
• Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (1.87): Recent history does not support BTS, but the teams' recent form shows two teams that both have BTS in their last 3 of 5 league games, the same as Over 2.5 Goals. This is a game that could go either way and one that both teams both believe and hope they can win.
• Bochum over 5.5 corners (1.61): Bochum is the team in the 2. Bundesliga that produces the most corners, both away and at home. In their first 2 home games they have averaged 8 corners and all the games taken together the average is 7.5. Fortuna on their part have conceded an average of 8.33 in their 3 away games. This is a good bet, both considering a clear trend at Bochum and the fact that they will pump up the forwards here as much as possible. There will also be no danger of them falling behind at 1-0, because that is the risk too high. And that they will score more than 1 goal is also somewhat doubtful, considering their recent goal statistics.
• Over 10.5 corners (1.81): Bochum's 6 games this season average 12.1 corners per game, while the average is 10.3 corners per game for Fortuna. When the teams met in the previous 2-game battle, there were 22 and 15 corners. Definitely a nice game that can be run as a single or in combination with something else. But it's not close to the heart as a main game.

As with any other derby, it is always interesting to watch the card games. It can get heated, a lot is at stake. Bochum averages 4.2 yellow cards per game while Fortuna has 3.0. Things can get heated here quickly, with good help from the crowd, so check it out before the game starts as odds are often provided late on such games in lower divisions. You can also try your hand at marking games here, but it is not good to say which way this may go. It is possibly something you can play around with during the game, if you do not feel confident before that time that one of these teams has what it takes to take all 3 points - as mentioned, there has been a victory for one or the other in the last 6 games between them. Although it is tempting to play both goals and BTS here, my heart is closest to the fact that Bochum has been strong at home and produces a high number of corners in each game. It is also available at good odds.

Germany 20:30: VfL Bochum - Fortuna Düsseldorf: VfL Bochum over 5.5 corners (1.61)

Alternative bets:
Germany 20:30: VfL Bochum – Fortuna Düsseldorf: Over 10.5 corners (1.81)

Germany 20:30: VfL Bochum – Fortuna Düsseldorf: Both teams score + over 2.5 goals (1.87)