VfB Stuttgart - Bayern Munich - 16-08-2025

DFB Cup winners VS Bundesliga winners. Sebastian Hoeneß VS Vincent Kompany – and a trophy up for grabs in the first match of the season! Although the ball has already been kicked in the lower divisions in Germany, the big ones haven't quite got the show started yet – it starts this weekend! All Bundesliga teams are in action against various opposition from the lower divisions, while Stuttgart and Bayern Munich crown the show with the Super Cup final. Here Stuttgart gets a slight advantage as the match is played at the MHPArena in Stuttgart, but there is of course much more to this match than just home advantage – the Super Cup is highly regarded in Germany. And Bayern has a certain advantage over Stuttgart. Let's see what we can get out of this match!

Stuttgart – A chance to start the season strong

There is no doubt that the Stuttgart squad has left last season far behind, 9th place was far below par. But the cup victory over Arminia Bielefeld, with conviction, was the end of the season they needed. Here is a golden opportunity to start the season in a sharp way, but they naturally face top opposition in Bayern Munich. Stuttgart has not been razor-sharp in the transfer market over the summer. Assignon from Rennes and Köhler from RB Leipzig are probably the only ones with a good CV, while the rest are intended for further development. Out of the doors, Bruun Larsen (Burnley), Millot (Al-Ahli), Boakye (Arminia Bielefeld) and Rieder (Rennes, ended loan stay) have disappeared. In this respect, Stuttgart is more or less the same as the team that won 4-2 at the Olympiastadion on May 24.

The pre-season has been typically German: overrun by local teams and some international opposition. The last opposition was against Bologna, where they lost 0-1. In that sense, a perfectly decent match, but of course not the ideal warm-up for the Super Cup final. It is probably forgotten quickly, the level of ignition and concentration is of course sharpened to a different level in a final. Even though we don't have a lot of fresh form to base ourselves on, we still take a look at (relatively) recent form and statistics:

• 4 wins in the last 5 home games
• Has scored in 4 of the last 5 games overall
• Conceded goals in all 5 of the last 5 meetings against Bayern (13 in total)
• Lost the dress rehearsal 0–1 against Bologna, but beat Strasbourg (4–0) and Toulouse (3–1) this summer. Planned over lower division teams in Germany, but that is strictly irrelevant

Stiller, Silas and Stergiou out. Hoeneß is expected to start in a 4-2-2-2 with Undav and Woltemade up top, fast full-backs and with his usual and clear pressing plan. The lack of creative Millot may give fewer openings between the lines, but the width and pace are still a weapon. All in all, it is a strong Stuttgart team.

Bayern Munich – Favorite stamp as always, but with some vulnerable points

Bayern Munich have had a great start to the season and based on social media, the newcomers have been well integrated into the team. Bayern's big character Müller has unfortunately disappeared out the door, and it is certainly noticeable in the hallways of the Allianz Arena, but he will probably return after having some fun with the Vancouver Whitecaps. Bayern participated in the Club World Cup where they ultimately lost to PSG. After that, there have been solid friendly matches against Lyon, Tottenham and Grasshoppers, all of which they won by convincing margins.

Bayern have, as always, been both active and good in the transfer market. Jonathan Tah was brought in early from Leverkusen, a raw and much-needed addition to the defense. Bischof has made the move from Hoffenheim, now a quality player who has had the years he needs to weed out junior mistakes. Luiz Diaz has been brought in from Liverpool, while Wanner has returned from loan. As mentioned, Müller has disappeared out the door, as well as Coman (Al-Nassr), Eric Dier (Monaco), Sané (Galatasaray), Tel (Tottenham) and Palhinha (Tottenham). There is undoubtedly a generational change underway at Bayern, and this is evident with the transfers this summer. Let's take a look at form and statistics:

• 4 wins in last 5 matches
• Over 2.5 goals in 66.7% of these matches
• Conceded goals in last 4 out of 5 matches
• Solid lead over Stuttgart: 28 wins in 37 games, Stuttgart's last win came in May 2024.

Musiala, Davies and Pavlović out. This makes the wing width and balance in the middle more vulnerable. Expected formation is 4-2-3-1 with Kane up top, Goretzka/Kimmich as anchor and Olise as creative force behind the striker. Diaz will be on either the right or left wing. It is believed that we will also see Karl, a young talent of 17 years who had a brilliant game against Grasshopper with both a goal and an assist. With newcomers, this is certainly a Bayern team that retains the favorite stamp.

Conclusion – historically targeted, with a Bayern advantage

The matches between Stuttgart and Bayern tend to be both fast-paced and entertaining. The last 5 out of 5 matches have all ended with over 2.5 goals. Of these, both teams have scored in 3 out of 5 matches. And in the last 3 out of 5 it has been a draw at half-time, in other words, there is a slight tendency for more action after the break without us getting too hung up on it. Because it is far too early in the season to say anything about it, but it is noted anyway.

The fact that Stuttgart has not gotten more out of the transfer window can perhaps be considered a bit worrying. But Hoeneß certainly has a plan. Bayern have been far more active and they have a good mix of young talent and experience in their squad. If we are to base ourselves on the pre-season, somewhat shaky (especially from Stuttgart), in addition to recent history between these, the first natural stop is BTS. We get that at 1.57 which is a completely decent and fair odds. A lot should be placed on both teams, that there will be mistakes here and there is no doubt about it, so we should not ignore both teams scoring. The next step is goals, it is directly supported by history and the fact that this is a match both teams are going to win. The bookmakers expect the same, so it is given at 1.47. If we add the bets together we see 1.78 in odds. In that sense a nice bet, but it would probably be more tempting to mark Bayern combined with a goal bet here. There is something about this Bayern team that looks fresh and ready for the season. In addition, Stuttgart is missing key players. Over 1.5 goals and Bayern win is available at 1.70. It is a bit early to look at cards and corner kicks, but this will come eventually. The last thing we look at is the half with the most goals, where we get 2.08 in odds on the most goals in the 2nd half. It can easily be an even game in the 1st half, where the teams get to know each other and the game gets settled, before both teams eventually have to move forward. It is a good bet at good odds and ends up right behind our main bet. All said, the following are the main tips for this match:

Germany at 20:30: VfB Stuttgart – Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich win + over 1.5 goals (1.70)

Alternative games:

Germany at 20:30: VfB Stuttgart – Bayern Munich: Most goals in the 2nd half (2.08)

Germany at 20:30: VfB Stuttgart – Bayern Munich: Both teams to score (1.57)