Valspar Championship 20-03-2025

After an intense match in THE PLAYERS Championship where Rory McIlroy finally emerged victorious after a playoff against JJ Spaun, the time now turns to the Valspar Championship and the fourth and final tournament in "The Florida Swing". Some of the biggest stars have chosen to take a break this week, but players like Straka, Schauffele, Thomas and Fleetwood are back in action. Can any of them assert themselves in this tournament too? I give you the main game of the round, Alternative games and the newcomer; The longshot of the round further down here.

The courses and the area

The Valspar Championship is played at the Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead Course, in Florida. This is not a classic "Florida" course with lots of water and open landscapes, but rather challenging in other ways such as dense tree lines and hilly terrain. It is 7,352 yards long, plays as a Par 71 and was designed by Larry Packard in 1972. The course is located in Palm Harbor, Florida and has a typical warm and windy climate.

The Copperhead Course is played on Bermuda grass like many other courses, and has TifEagle Bermuda grass on the greens. But what the Copperhead Course is perhaps best known for is the last three holes, 16, 17 and 18. They go by the nickname “The Snake Pit” and are one of the toughest finishes on the PGA Tour. Hole 16 “Moccasin” is a long par 4 with trouble on both sides, Hole 17 “Rattler” is a par 3 with an undulating green and Hole 18 “Copperhead” is a demanding par 4 hole with a narrow fairway. So many of the same statistics as last week will count here as well, such as Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Short game and scrambling, as well as putting on the TifEagle Bermuda. Finally, you need to use your head and play smart on The Snake Pit!

Top 20 candidates

• Sepp Straka is starting to become a favorite with another tip in, and I'm including him once again in the assessment, precisely because he delivers. This will be his tenth tournament this year, but why take a break when things are going so well? After winning The American Express on January 19, he has 5 out of 6 tournaments top 15, and with the form he has now, it could easily be another one. In Driving Accuracy he is no. 11, SG: Approach no. 6, Scrambling no. 44, and Putting no. 53. He hits the green (GIR) 73.69% of his attempts and that is second best of all. The Austrian has only played here twice, where in 2019 he was no. 46 while last year he missed the cut. But then he was nowhere near the form he is in now.
• Lucas Glover has had a yo-yo start to the season, because with T21-MC-T3-MC-T31-MC-T36-T3 it says a lot. Unstable would probably be the best word, but he showed promising pace last week with a shared 3rd place. Despite a lot of unstable play, 45 year olds have been good from the Tee, while their putting has not been quite right. In Driving Accuracy he is in 4th place this year, and that will come in handy here. SG: Approach is also quite good, but he has struggled to hit the green from the fairway. Then it is good that he has been good around the green, and if he can get a slightly higher hit percentage on GIR, he could become a man to watch high up on the leaderboard. Glover has played on this course a total of 19 times, and if you ignore five MCs, he has only been worse than no. 48 twice. Last year he was no. 11 here with three rounds under 70 strokes.
• Corey Conners started the season well with a tied 5th place in The Sentry, but then it stalled for a month before he played his way to a tied 24th place in The Genesis Invitational, 3rd place in the Arnold Palmer and now a tied 6th place in The Players. It shows a confidence that has risen in line with his game recently and the Canadian was third best in Driving Accuracy last week and is 19th overall this year, while in the other statistics he is in the middle of the tree. Conners has played here twice, in 2018 with a 16th place result, and in 2021 he was No. 21, so he has clearly liked the course relatively well. His strengths are from Tee to Green, and on the same type of grass Conners putted the best of all in The Sentry and 13th best in Arnold Palmer, so if he does something similar this week he could do very well here.
• Alex Smalley is my final candidate this week because of his consistent play this year. Out of seven starts, he has one missed cut and the rest are inside the top 21, with 11th place in The American Express as his best result. He is No. 41 in Driving Accuracy, but 5th place SG: Tee to Green, 7th place Scrambling, No. 2 around the green and 10th place in Putting, so he has the game needed to achieve good results. Historically, he has not had much to show for this tournament, with two MCs and a tied 27th place in 2023 as his best result. The difference between previous years and now is form, because this year's start to the season is his best since he got his card on the PGA Tour.

Conclusion

Most of the biggest players are staying on the training field this week, and it's time for the second best on the list to stick their heads out. Last week we got the main game on Straka and the side game on Morikawa in the top 10, and that's why I can't avoid the in-form player Sepp Straka this time either, even though I think all four of them will make the top 20. The Austrian is in the best form of his life, and I think that will continue. He has seven top 15 finishes this season, and I'm sure there will be another one. That's why I'm playing:

Golf at 12:30: Sepp Straka top 20 (1.86)

Alternate bets:
Golf 12:30: Lucas Glover Top 20 (2.85)
Golf 12:30: Corey Conners Top 20 (2.30)
Golf 12:30: Alex Smalley Top 20 (3.00)

Round's longshot:
Golf at 12:30: Alex Smalley wins the tournament (41.00)