Vålerenga W – Brann W 12-10-2025

Even though there are six league rounds left, the importance of this match cannot be overstated. Vålerenga W and Brann W are clearly Norway's best teams on the day, as both are in brilliant form, and the gap down to Rosenborg W is manageable.

Then it is not radical to claim that one of these teams will be the league champion, all the while there is only 4 points separating them. But who? The advantage lies with the away team, but the home team is close enough that it could be exciting. And we will make money on that.

Vålerenga W – a psychological advantage?

Both Trondheims/Ørn and Lillestrøm have had their heyday, dominating Norwegian women's football. We don't have that kind of dominance anymore, but if one team is to be proclaimed the dominant team, it has to be Vålerenga. They have won the top flight three of the last five years, and are also the reigning champions. And this weekend they can really get their hands on the title again.

Because they are 4 points behind the guests from Bergen, and with six games left it is possible to make this exciting, even though these teams rarely give up points against anyone other than each other. But that requires Vålerenga to win. Anything other than three points will be sending the league gold home in the luggage of the red-clad. I think Nils Lexerød knows that. And he has probably made it crystal clear to his girls.

Led by the Westerners Olaug Tvedten and Karina Sævik, the capital team has scored a whopping 61 goals in 22 games this year. And Sævik also got on the scoresheet in the semi-final of the cup, just a week ago. And guess who they beat? You guessed it right, because the answer is Brann. A victory that gives them a psychological advantage before the series final on Sunday.

But since then, Vålerenga has been in Manchester. The Champions League started this week, and the girls came home with zero points, but with their honor intact. A questionable penalty in the first half was what separated the teams. But playing evenly with the star gallery of Manchester United is something the girls can take with them into the final sprint in the Toppserien.

Fire W – will the gold be returned?

1st place and a gap of four points to 2nd place should indicate optimism and positive energy in Bergen. But it is not just harmony between the seven mountains. Leif Gunnar Smedrud is experiencing strong criticism, and it is rumored that there is dissatisfaction in the player squad of the red-clad. Rumor has it that the player group has a history of wanting to lead, rather than be led, and it may be that Smedrud has taken on a task he had no idea the dimensions of. And there is already speculation about whether he is the right man for the job. The change to three at the back is one thing, but the treatment of Johanna Renmark has set the emotions in motion among the Bergen audience. And that uncertainty can be dangerous to take with you over the mountain.

But he must be doing something right, because Brann W has 10 wins in the last 10 in the Toppserien. Now they have lost two games against Manchester United in the Champions League, in addition to the aforementioned cup loss against Vålerenga W, but they have the gold in their pocket. If they avoid defeat here.

But 4-1 in Stockholm, against Hammarby, on Tuesday was definitely not what the Bergen team had imagined. They were left with the Europa League when Manchester United put an end to their Champions League adventure. And no matter how strange it is to say, all the time they are 10-0-0 in the series, Brann is actually a bit out of shape, as they are 2-0-3 in their last five in all competitions.

But let's avoid being too tabloid, because the fact is that Brann is a class team. Led by Davidson, flanked by players like Gaupset, Eikeland, Lovera and Isaksen, they are extremely difficult to beat. And they know what it takes to win the series; namely to avoid defeat in the capital.

Conclusion – go big, or go home

I love matches like this, where motivation can influence the outcome enough that we get both a match picture and a result that is completely different from what the bookmakers envision. Because yes; I also understand that Brann W might fall behind here. 0-0 will in practice be enough to secure league gold, so I am aware of that danger. But "it takes two to tango".

Because on the other half of the field there is a team that has everything to win. And nothing to lose. They have to go forward, and I think the aforementioned attack line of Brann is strong enough, and offensive enough in the head, to take their chances when they present themselves. Because here, counterattacking space will open up.

In addition, we find support both in the statistics and in history. For the teams average 3.4 goals per game in this year's Toppserie, and 5 of the last 5 have gone over 2.5 goals. But clearly; statistics can be read in many ways, and we will not hide the fact that both of them concede very few goals. Brann in particular, with their 6 goals conceded in 22 games, is impressive. But there is a difference between Vålerenga and Kolbotn, Røa and Hønefoss, and the attacking line of the home team is capable of causing trouble for the guests.

Since the odds are unnaturally high, we're not asking for much. I suspected something was wrong at first, but I've now seen odds of over 2.5 goals in two places. First at 2.65 in one place, and then at 3.00 in another. I don't understand any of that, all the time we know what's in the pot here.

I think Vålerenga knows that this is where they have to do it. And I hope Brann takes their chances, when the spaces open up. And if I get the desired match picture, there is value in both the main game and the alternative game here;

Norway at 17:00: Vålerenga W – Brann W: Over 1.5 goals (1.58)

Alternative game;

Norway at 17:00: Vålerenga W – Brann W: Over 2.5 goals (3.00)

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