Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund

It's set for a close and exciting clash when Union Berlin, who are unbeaten in 6 games, host Borussia Dortmund at the Stadion an der Alten Försterei. Borussia Dortmund are coming off a Champions League thrashing against Tottenham and need to take 3 points here to keep pace with the superb Bayern Munich.

Union Berlin: slow upward trend and difficult to beat at home

Union Berlin has had a somewhat typical season for the team to be: 9th place, 6-6-6 and 24-27 in goal difference. They can keep up with the best and lose to the worst. Consistently good, but also very bad on their worst days. But now they are in a good trend and know they have a chance against Dortmund here. Stadion an der Alten Försterei is intense with the 12th man in the back, but strictly speaking Dortmund is not too unfamiliar with that, with their yellow wall that is always to be reckoned with.

Union has some injuries that are hampering them a bit, mostly in the form of Rothe and Skarke. But they have a solid width in the squad and held up well away to Stuttgart last weekend without both of the above. Derrick Köhn was also given marching orders against Augsburg and is unavailable for this match. Baumgart is expected to play more or less the same against Dortmund, with his 4-3-1-2 formation, possibly a slightly more offensive 3-4-2-1 formation, which gave success against Stuttgart, or a well-known 3-5-2 formation. It may be some hybrid and it will be quickly adjusted to what he expects Kovac to come up with.

Borussia Dortmund: A good season overall, but they can't decide even games

For the regular matches it must be decided whether Dortmund will have any chance of challenging Bayern. Now there is a difference of 11 points and a huge difference in the goal record. Dortmund has played 3-3 3 times this season and in 2 of these they conceded late goals and therefore 3 points. They know that Union is tough away, but they also know that they have had a good hold on them recently. 3-0 in August and 6-0 in February, although both at Signal Iduna Park. The previous match at Stadion an der Alten Försterei they lost 2-1, although with a frightening away form. The away form is somewhat better this year, but this is still where Dortmund is lagging. 7-2-0 at home and +13 in goal difference is solid, but 4-4-1 and +5 away from home do not match as well. Here they will have to work to bring home the whole bag of points.

Squad-wise, it looks like only Sabitzer is out, and that bodes very well for Dortmund. Bellingham and Nmecha are expected to form the midfield, with Anton, Can and Schlotterbeck in the back three. So anything other than Guirassy, ​​Adeyemi and Brandt up front will be a surprise. Silva has not delivered consistently so far, but now has 4 assists to show for it. It will probably be a 3-4-2-1 formation that Kovac swears by, and in that sense we will soon have a match where both teams line up quite similarly in terms of formation.

Conclusion: a little different to pick from

There are no immediate bets that stand out here, but if we dig a little deeper, both Over 2.5 goals, BTS and Card games could be relevant here. Marking feels too risky here. Let's look at them individually:

• Over 2.5 goals (2.08): Here you get high odds, but it is not necessarily supported by anything other than recent statistics. Union Berlin has over 2.5 goals in 7 of 9 home matches. Dortmund, on the other hand, has somewhat lower statistics: 4 of 9 away matches have ended with over 2.5 goals. But historically, 11 of 15 matches between them have ended with over 2.5 goals, of which the last 4 of 5 support it. Dortmund in particular is coming off goal-rich matches in the Bundesliga, most recently 3-2 at home against St. Pauli. Nice bet at solid odds this.
• Both teams to score (1.85): Again, good odds are available, possibly because Dortmund are 9-0 in their last 2 matches against Union. However, now Union Berlin is again with BTS in 7 of 9 home matches, while Dortmund has BTS in 6 of 9 away matches. And if we look at the recent trend, there is not much that indicates a tight defense. Union has scored in the last 4 of 5 (then 5 goals), while Dortmund has conceded in the last 3 of 5 (then 6 goals). And Dortmund did not impress in any way against Tottenham, although it can certainly be argued that the red card affected the game there. It looks promising with a bet on BTS here anyway.
• Over 3.5 cards (1.55): Here the odds are jacked down considerably, with statistics to back them up. If you want to go over 4.5 cards , you get it at 2.12 , but then it is much closer to the heart to go for over 2.5 goals at almost equal odds. Union Berlin is averaging 3.0 cards at home this year, while Dortmund is at 2.33 cards away. In Union's last 5, the average has ended up at 3.6, while for Dortmund it is 3.4. For this match, the experienced Robert Hartmann is listed, a man who has a total average of 3.73 (yellow) cards in his career per match, of which he has averaged 3.21 yellow and 0.36 red cards per match so far this season. There is a lot of room here for a safe bet to land, but over 4.5 cards feels somewhat unsafe in that context.

Here we actually have 3 good bets to choose from. But the one that tastes best is BTS. It is mostly based on recent form for both teams, the fact that the match is played at Stadion an der Alten Försterei and good odds overall. Short bets were considered for a long time, but over 3.5 is available at somewhat low odds to be considered a value bet. In addition, there was never anything to be gained from looking at the short bets of the teams individually. Here we land on the following bets:

Germany at 18:30: Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund: Both teams to score (1.85)

Alternative game:

Germany at 18:30: Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund: Over 2.5 goals (2.08)