Toronto FC – Inter Miami CF

It's not often that MLS offers greater contrasts than this. On one side we have a Toronto FC team that is still leaking backwards, but at least showing life offensively in front of its own fans. On the other side stands an Inter Miami team full of stars, chaos and question marks. Just a few months ago this looked like a machine that could dominate MLS throughout the season. Now? Now it occasionally looks like a team that defends with flares and good vibes.

Inter Miami come into this match after the absurd collapse against Orlando, where they led 3-0 before the whole house of cards collapsed and the match ended in defeat. It is far from the first time this season that Miami has looked vulnerable defensively, and there is a feeling building around the team that the balance is simply not there. Offensively they can cause chaos against anyone in MLS, but at the back there is far too much space, too many transitions and far too many periods where the team loses complete control of the game.

Toronto FC – The corner machine from Canada

Toronto hasn't been a consistent team this season, but at home at BMO Field they've at least been involved in open and entertaining games. They have scored 18 goals and conceded 20 in 11 league games, and very few of their games have been completely dead. When Toronto first plays at home, it's often a fast-paced game, with lots of transitions and a game that produces both shots and corners.

The corner statistics of late are particularly interesting. Toronto's last three MLS matches have ended with a crazy 16, 16 and 19 corners in total. It's no longer a coincidence, there's a clear trend in the way their games are developing. They press hard at times, concede a lot themselves, and the games often take on a very undulating feel.

Toronto also averages well over five corners per game themselves, and against a Miami team that is constantly being pushed back for long periods, it is certainly realistic that the home team contributes solidly to the corner count here.

Inter Miami CF – From super team to MLS chaos

It's almost fascinating to see how much Inter Miami has changed in a relatively short period of time. This was the team that won the league last year and that many expected to dominate MLS again this season. Instead, we see a team that very often ends up in wild and open games.

Miami is still scoring a lot of goals. With Messi, Suárez and the rest of the offense, they will always create chances. The only problem is that they are also giving away huge spaces defensively. The team is conceding far too many big chances, and once the opponent gets momentum, Miami seems surprisingly vulnerable mentally.

It's no coincidence that their games are constantly teetering on the edge of goal totals. Inter Miami's games are averaging close to four goals per game this season, and several of the matches have developed into pure MLS circuses where structure and control completely disappear after halftime.

Miami is not as extreme in terms of corners as Toronto, but they still contribute well enough offensively to make this line look very playable. They create a lot of pressure offensively, especially when chasing scores, and against Toronto I expect a match where both teams will get their periods.

Conclusion

This looks like a game that could be very open. Toronto rarely plays cynically at home, while Inter Miami simply doesn't seem comfortable controlling games defensively right now. It often results in a lot of transitions, a lot of finishing and, of course, more corners.

Should Miami score an early goal, the game could open up dramatically. But at the same time, we have seen several times this season that Miami is unable to “kill” games, and that gives the opponent opportunities to push back later in the game.

It's simply difficult to imagine a calm and controlled 1-0 match here.

Bet suggestions

Main game:

MLS 19:00 Toronto FC – Inter Miami: Over 9.5 corners (1.70)

Alternative game:

MLS At 19:00 Toronto FC - Inter Miami: Toronto FC over 4.5 corners (1.80)

Long shot:

MLS At 19:00 Toronto FC - Inter Miami: Over 3.5 goals + over 8.5 corners (3.05)