Tommy Paul – Alex de Minaur 13-05-2025

Can Paul finally break De Minaur's dominance?

Tommy Paul and Alex de Minaur meet in the fourth round of the ATP Rome. De Minaur has won all five of their previous meetings, including a win in Rome three years ago. The question is whether Paul can finally break that trend and secure his first win against the Australian.

Tommy Paul

Paul has had a solid tournament in Rome, with wins over Roberto Bautista Agut and Tomas Machac. He has shown good form on clay, but has struggled against De Minaur in previous meetings. Paul is known for his aggressive baseline play and strong serve, which could be key to challenging De Minaur.

Alex de Minaur

De Minaur has had an impressive season, including a semi-final in Monte Carlo and a quarter-final in Barcelona. In Rome, he won his first two matches in straight sets. De Minaur is known for his quick footwork and ability to return difficult balls, which has given him the advantage in previous meetings with Paul.

Previous meetings

De Minaur leads Paul 5–0 in their head-to-head matches. Their last meeting was at Los Cabos 2023, where De Minaur won 6–4, 3–6, 6–3. Their only meeting on clay was in Rome three years ago, where De Minaur won 7–5, 6–4.

Both players come into this match with good rhythm and solid match training. Paul has won 6 of his last 8 on clay, including victories over opponents like Machac and Bautista Agut. He has improved his mobility and shown greater patience in the long duels, which is crucial on clay. However, he has a negative match record against players with high mobility and variety, which is exactly why he has struggled against De Minaur.

The Australian has played with clear confidence throughout the spring, and it was in Monte Carlo in particular that he saw results for his defensive discipline and ability to turn defense into attack. On clay, he is perhaps underestimated. In 2025, De Minaur has played 12 matches on the surface and won 9 – including against Dimitrov, Medvedev and Machac. In Rome, he has held serve in 83% of games and broken his opponent in 40%, which shows the balance in his game.

What shows that this could be an even match is primarily Paul's serve and forehand, if he gets a rhythm early, he can create pressure and push De Minaur to the back of the court. At the same time, De Minaur will play with a high margin, give little for free and force Paul to play with risk over time. This could be a match where momentum changes, and where taking care of break points and playing the important points calmly will be crucial. Both have a high tiebreak rate this season, and all signs point to a match that extends into games, although the winner may be easy to predict.

Will there be another thriller between Paul and De Minaur?

Both players have shown good form on clay, but De Minaur has a clear advantage with his quick footwork and ability to return difficult balls. Paul will likely try to dictate the game with his aggressive baseline play and strong serve, but De Minaur's previous wins and experience give him a mental advantage.

Given both players' form and previous close encounters, it is likely that the match will have many games. Therefore, our main bet is an over bet on this;

ATP Rome at 18:30, Tommy Paul – Alex de Minaur: Over 22.5 games in the match (1.91)

Alternative games:

ATP Rome at 18:30, Tommy Paul - Alex de Minaur: De Minaur wins 2-1 (4.00)

ATP Rome at 18:30, Tommy Paul – Alex de Minaur: Over 10.5 games in the first set (3.30)