Ten – Norrie 06-10 2025

Things are starting to get going at the penultimate Masters 1000 tournament in Shanghai, and now the real goodies are starting to appear.
It has, perhaps unsurprisingly, been a tournament marked by underdog winners and far too many players withdrawing.
The explanation is quite simple; tired and burnt out players, extreme heat and high humidity – the threshold for withdrawing is much lower now, especially for players who don't have much to defend.

Ring fox Cameron Norrie from the British Isles will face off against American talent Learner Tien – as the underdog.
And this is the underdog's tournament, isn't it?

Cameron Norrie - he who dares nothing wins?

The British gentleman is no ordinary man. Born in South Africa, raised in New Zealand and has represented the British Isles since 2013. He has been as high as 8th in the ATP rankings, reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon and has a Masters 1000 title from Indian Wells to name a few.

In terms of play, he may not be the most interesting to watch for the average person, but for us tennis enthusiasts, he is a study in tactics, game understanding and the ability to play to his own strengths.
Norrie is a typical "lefty" with a lot of topspin and power in his forehand, and he has a well above average flat backhand. It may look strange, and technically it is far from A4 - but it works.
He has a perfectly OK serve at ATP level, but is well behind the best.
In my eyes, Cam Norrie's greatest strengths are the tactical part, game understanding and the ability to adapt to both opponents and developments during matches - and the ability to not only defend well, but defend smartly. A good example of how you don't need the world's hardest serve or guns from the baseline to claim high honors.
Something worth noting is that Norrie's favorite surface is hard court, while the highest winning percentage is on clay - but that can probably be explained quite simply by the number of matches played on each surface.

Fun fact: He plays left-handed, but is actually right-handed – like Jack Draper, among others.

Learner Tien – the next big thing?

The young American broke through with a bang in 2024. When he won his first Challenger tournaments, and reached his first quarter-final at the ATP level in Winston-Salem.
Since then, the arrow has pointed upwards, and he has been as high as 39th place at the age of 19 – this is a talent that is well worth noting, and a very possible top 10 player for the future.
Tien is also a "lefty", but with a rather different playing style. He is a typical baseline player, who likes to build the game through longer rallies until he finds the opening and can squeeze.
Like Norrie, he has a lot of topspin on his forehand – but in my eyes it is the backhand that is his greatest strength, and we will probably see winners from it both down the line and "cross court" after he has opened up the court. The serve may be a little above Norrie, but he has a way to go there.

Tien moves extremely well, reads the game well and is extremely tactically mature considering his young age – and he is very solid defensively, not unlike Norrie. Tien is also a good and aggressive returner, something we demonstrated very clearly during the match against Medvedev.
Another thing worth noting is his ability to raise the level against supposedly better players, besides Sinner and Alcaraz he is the one who has won the most against top 10 players in 2025. That is nothing to be ashamed of.

Conclusion:

Norrie is a personal favorite, but he's probably a little past his midday peak. Learner Tien can go pretty much as far as he wants if he can develop certain parts of his game, like his forehand and serve – the rest is in order. This could be a close one, and I think it's going to be decided by the margins. But a break of serve can quickly change the momentum.

There are three aspects that I think will be crucial here:

• Tien's serve – in short, how well he manages to hold it.
• Longer exchanges – clear advantage for Tien.
• The footwork.

To sum it up, Tien will decide where this ends. Norrie is a very well-trained, persistent and tenacious tennis player – but he simply does not move as well as Tien. When you also zero out Cam Norrie's perhaps biggest x-factor with his left hand, and have to take into account that he may end up behind, we end up with the following bet:

Tennis 06-10 at 11:00: Tien – Norrie – Tien wins (1.78)

Alternative long shot: Ten -1.5 sets (2.77)