Analysis of:
THE PLAYERS Championship 13-03-2025

Written by: Norodd

Analysis Information
THE PLAYERS Championship is one of the biggest highlights for a golfer if he is good enough to get to the start. And for us Norwegians it is a little extra special this year, because Viktor Hovland is starting as usual, but he also has Kristoffer Ventura in the tournament. Hovland hit a hole-in-one here in 2022 and is playing for the fifth time, but it is Ventura who has the better results of the two this year. So it will be exciting to see how they do this week along with 142 other players in the world's top.
The courses and the area
THE PLAYERS Championship is played at TPC Sawgrass, which is not one of the longest courses, but still demanding in its own way. It is played as a Par 72 and has a length of 7352 yards. Pete Dye is the architect behind it and the course was established in 1980. The course has water in play on over half of the holes and there are plenty of other challenges on the way between Tee and Green, so there should be no shortage of entertainment for us who watch. The course has Tifsport Bermudagrass all over the board, in fairways, rough and on the green. The same type of grass that was on the green in last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.
TPC Sawgrass is best suited for technically solid players with a strong iron game, precision off the tee and the ability to putt on fast small greens. You have to hit the fairways as many times as possible, be good from 200+ yards and into small undulating greens. If you miss the green, it will of course be a great advantage to be good at Scrambling and Short game around the green. And finally, the putting should be on small and possibly fast greens. I therefore look at statistics that follow these advantages in the game, and that is Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Scrambling and Putting, but according to Marius Thorp in Eurosport, input to the green from over 200 meters and putting from short distances will also be important here.
The four chosen ones
- Collin Morikawa is a player that all the experts have put high on the list when it comes to fighting for victory in the big tournaments this season. And he can certainly say that he has delivered in that area, because with two 2nd places and two shared 17th places in four starts, the season has started off fantastically. Morikawa is 5th best in Driving Accuracy, 10th place SG: Approach, 31st place in Scrambling, 27th place SG: Putting, and if we look at Thorp's two points, he is no. 11 in Approaches from 200 yards and Putting from 10-15 feet he is 6th best. So he hits very well if we look at form and statistics. Previous results at TPC Sawgrass have not been the best, but a 13th place in 2023 is the best Morikawa has performed here.
- Sepp Straka was once again the only one to fulfill my tips last week, and that with a nice shared 5th place. Straka has played almost everything this year and it seems like it's flowing well. Out of eight starts, he has only missed the cut once, and he has six top 15 results, so he is performing very high on the day. Previous performances on this course and the tournament have been 9th place in 2022, 65th place in 2023 and 16th place last year, so it may indicate that the course suits him well. Straka is 11th best in Driving Accuracy, 9th place SG: Approach, 66th place in Scrambling, 50th place SG: Putting, and on Thorp's two points he is no. 29 in Approaches from 200 yards and Putting from 10-15 feet he is 53rd best. The reason he is a little worse at Scrambling can be explained by the fact that he has had little need for it. He is the second best of all at hitting the green (GIR). A full 3 out of 4 attempts end up on the short cut part around the hole.
- Ludvig Åberg already has a big win this year, and a terrible Saturday last week ruined another top spot. Incidentally, that Saturday is his only bad day in good health this season. The Swede is too good not to be mentioned again, and I believe in a position high up there. He debuted here last year with an 8th place, so there is no doubt that the course suits him well. Last week in the Arnold Palmer Invitational he was 6th best in Driving Accuracy, 41st place SG: Approach, 48th place in Scrambling, 19th place SG: Putting, and that with a Saturday that went five strokes over par. I have faith in the Swede at TPC Sawgrass this week.
- Michael Kim had a bad start to the season, but after two missed cuts and a shared 43rd place, things turned around in the Phoenix Open. There he shared 2nd place behind winner Thomas Detry and continued his good play with T13-T13-T6 and 4th place in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Because of the bad start to the season, the overall statistics do not give a good picture of the recent times, but last week he was in the top 35 in all statistics, while the week before he was in the top 37. Michael Kim has played here four times and missed the cut in the last three years, while in his debut he was no. 60. Now he is probably in better shape than then and that is why I consider him a top 20 outsider. Last week he hit the green 65% of his attempts, and 89% of his putts within 3 meters went in.
Conclusion
Once again, Scottie Scheffler is of course the biggest favorite, but he gives too bad odds if you don't bet on him to win. I have chosen to set up a main bet on the man who has given us money back in the last two tournaments. As I said, Sepp Straka has an impressive series of results now, and this tournament is also high on his list. Straka is playing smart and I think he will once again give a solid result in the box office.
Ludvig Åberg has to string together four good days, and I think he will. He is good at the mental side and now it is a new tournament, so last Saturday will not affect him. He proved that by going four under par the day after he played five over par. Both of these are capable of winning here if it works out. So my tips this week will be Straka as the main bet and Åberg, Morikawa and Kim as side bets.
Golf at 12:40: Sepp Straka top 20 (2.45)
Alternative bets:
Golf at 12:40: Ludvig Åberg top 10 (2.60)
Golf at 12:40: Collin Morikawa top 10 (2.40)
Golf at 12:40: Michael Kim top 20 (3.50)
As usual, there will also be tips on H2H duels during the weekend, and you will find these on our Oddslisten.
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