Texas Children's Houston Open 03-27-2025

Finally, we got Viktor Hovland back on top in a tournament, and the Valspar Championship last week was the tournament where he took his seventh victory on the PGA Tour. This week he is taking a break, but we have two of the world's best golfers starting in the Houston Open, namely Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. In addition to these two, the field is filled with 154 other hopeful golfers who want to win on the Tour, including Kristoffer Ventura. Some don't quite have the qualities yet, but many definitely have the potential for top places. We will come back to who these are below.

The courses and the area

The Texas Children's Houston Open is played at Memorial Park Golf Course, right in the heart of Houston, Texas. The course is one of the few municipal golf courses on the PGA Tour and was built over 100 years ago as a 9-hole course. Now 18 holes and 7,475 yards long, it plays as a par 70 and has some long par 4s and par 5s, so there's certainly no backside to hit far here. The course record is 62 strokes and is held by Scheffler as of 2021 and Finau in 2022 and 2024.

The course is long, has narrow fairways and large undulating greens, so you have to hit far and precisely to find the fairway. From there, the iron game has to be positioned to give yourself an opportunity to land close to the hole to be able to sink birdies. There are few easy birdie holes on the course, so the focus will be something the players have to carry with them for four long days to be able to go low. The criteria for success here are very similar to the Cognizant Classic and the Valspar Championship, so I look at statistics and results from there as those tournaments have recently been held.

Based on the information I find, my top 20 candidates are as follows:

• Jacob Bridgeman is a player who has varied a lot in his performances this season. He has played nine tournaments so far, but six of them have either missed the cut, or been worse than 20th place. On the other hand, he has a shared 2nd place and a 3rd place in the last 3 weeks, and both of these results came in the Cognizant Classic and the Valspar Championship, which are very similar to this tournament in terms of play. That is why I consider him a top 20 candidate here. He played a lot on and off the course last weekend, but was a master at saving himself. Bridgeman was 8th best around the green and best with the putter in the last tournament, while where he lost a little compared to the field was with the irons from the fairway and onto the green. Around the green he was one of the best. Still, I believe he can do well here again. Last year he debuted with a 21st place in this tournament.
• Alex Smalley disappointed me last week, but I haven't completely given up on him, and I'm bringing him back with me this week. Smalley has been playing well this year, and last week's missed cut was only his second MC this season, out of eight attempts. In the Cognizant Classic, he was best around the green and in Driving Accuracy, so I think he just had a bad week in the Valspar Championship. Smalley is also good off the tee and he is skilled at avoiding bogeys, so the statistics speak for good results. He has played the Houston Open three times, with 15th place in 2022, 4th place in 2023 and MC last year as results. I have renewed faith in the 28-year-old American.
• Aaron Rai is a 30-year-old from Wolverhampton who is very skilled at hitting the fairway, because this year's statistics say he is 6th best in Driving Accuracy, and if he misses it is usually only on the edge of the fairway. From there and into the green he is also good, and his putter has been quite okay. He was 23rd best in The Players, and 33rd best in the tournament before that with the putter. Rai's results this season have varied somewhat, but in the last three tournaments he has been top 15, so it shows a progression of stability. Aaron Rai has played this tournament three times and has the positions 19-7-7, so there is little doubt that the course suits him. If he can play the game he has had lately and his putter gets hot, he is one of those who can fight for victory here.

Conclusion

In this tournament there are many who can claim the top spot, which makes it extra difficult to pick one main game, but I thought Jacob Bridgeman was an exciting player on the day. He seems to have faith in his game, and last weekend's result showed that. He had a great experience on this course last year and the statistics show that the course should suit him well. That's why I'm playing:

Golf at 12:00: Jacob Bridgeman top 20 (2.75)

Alternative bets:
Golf at 12:00: Aaron Rai top 20 (2.20)
Golf at 12:00: Alex Smalley top 20 (3.10)

Round's longshot:
Golf at 12:00: Davis Riley leads after Day 1 (51.00)

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