Sparta Prague – AZ Alkmaar

There are tournaments that sparkle with money, superstars and global attention. And then there are tournaments that have not yet lost their soul. The UEFA Europa Conference League is perhaps the least glamorous of the three European tournaments, but it is also the most romantic. And it is an opportunity for us to watch matches with teams from behind the old Iron Curtain. Clubs with pride, history and ambition, but without necessarily the astronomical budgets.

And just such an evening awaits us in Prague when AC Sparta Prague takes on AZ Alkmaar in the hunt for a place in the quarter-finals. Because in these tournaments, the quarter-finals are a point where the adventure begins to feel real. And when the starting point is as open as it is here, everything is set for an intense and spectacular affair.

Sparta Prague – the belief in a turnaround

Sparta Prague went fearlessly into action at AFAS Stadion last Thursday, and did more than enough to keep this match alive. They probably should have been without the late goal, but those of us who followed the match were still impressed by what the Czechs had to offer.

Not many teams return from the Netherlands with a 0.97 xG, and Sparta Prague therefore know that they can take something from here. That belief is fueled by their form in the domestic series. Because this weekend they put all four goals behind the goalkeeper of 1. FC Slovácko, in a match that ended 5-2 to Sparta Prague. That says a lot about how offensive this team is. In the Czech First League, they are the team with the highest goal average, with a whopping 3.2 goals per match.

Of course, one can emphasize that they have scored 54 goals in this year's 26 matches, but I think it is just as interesting that they have also conceded 30. That is well over one goal behind on average. In other words; a team that attacks with enthusiasm, but also gives the opponent space.

Vojta came last on the scoresheet, but players like Lukáš Haraslín, Vedat Muriqi Rrahmani and Jan Kuchta are names that will be a constant threat throughout the match. At the same time, it should be mentioned that Haraslín had to leave with an injury in this weekend's match, and in Prague they are crossing everything they have for the Slovak to make it to this match.

AZ Alkmaar – attacker by nature

AZ Alkmaar won the first leg and will advance with a draw here. Let's not forget that. But at the same time, it is not in the nature of the Dutch to lie down and defend a result. Because with an average of 3.3 goals in the Eredivisie, it is clear that attack is the best defense for this team.

At the same time, they know that they should have had a bigger lead from the first meeting. Because with an xG of a formidable 3.85, two goals was actually a bit short of what the match picture suggested.

Last time our analysis landed on a game based on the number of shots. And with a whopping 27 shots from the home team, that game was a very good margin. But even if that's not where we're going this time, it still says something about how attacking AZ Alkmaar actually is.

They also have no history of taking their foot off the gas once their opponent is down. This weekend they didn't stop attacking until it was 4–0 against Heracles Almelo, and there is every indication that they will exploit every counterattacking space that opens up when Sparta Prague has to advance.

But "De Kaasboeren" also has its weaknesses. The Cheese Farmers – named after the city's famous cheese market – have conceded 42 goals in 27 league games this year. This means that Sparta Prague should definitely take to the field with the belief that this can be turned around.

And then AZ has a weapon that some in north London, these days, probably regret letting go of; Troy Parrott. The striker is red-hot, and already has 14 league goals. It was also he who decided the first match with his two goals. Together with Sven Mijnans, these two can quickly make the evening very uncomfortable for the home team.

Everything is in place for goals in Prague

When the starting point is like this, we often get the kind of second leg that takes on a life of its own. Because Sparta Prague has to go forward, at some point or another. They have to chase scoring. And when one team flies out of the starting blocks, space often opens up for the other team to exploit.

It is no less interesting that no team in the entire Conference League attacks and finishes as often as AZ Alkmaar. They have a formidable 17.7 finishes per game. This is not match-dependent – ​​it is in the team's DNA.

The statistics also point in the same direction. The teams go over 2.5 goals in 57% and 56% of their matches respectively. But even more interesting is that Sparta Prague goes over 2.5 goals in 67% of their home matches in this year's Conference League, while AZ Alkmaar does so in a whopping 75% of their away matches.

So here we have two offensive teams. A home team that must attack to keep the dream alive, and an away team that simply cannot help but attack. When the statistics also speak in our favor, there is little that seems logical about the odds on offer.

So we do the only sensible thing.

We give it gas.

Conference League at 21:00: Sparta Prague – AZ Alkmaar: Over 2.5 goals (1.92)