Spain - Netherlands 23-03-2025

The first quarter-final of the UEFA Nations League between Spain and the Netherlands ended 2-2. A starting point that creates an exciting framework for this return match.

Analysis of the teams

Ahead of the upcoming clash at the Estadio Mestalla in Valencia, Spain have home field advantage, and defensively in particular, Spain have been solid so far in this tournament. So far, they have only conceded 0.67 goals per game, compared to the Netherlands' 1.17 goals per game.

Spain – Ball possession and high intensity – important with the first goal

Spain will likely dominate possession in the second leg, as they usually do at home. The team is known for its quick passing football and ability to break down low-lying defences. With players like Pedri and Dani Olmo in midfield, Spain have both creativity and control.

A key factor will be the wings, especially Nico Williams, who scored in the away game. He has been in brilliant form and has the pace to challenge the Dutch defence. Luis de la Fuente may also choose to use Lamine Yamal to increase the attacking pressure. Up front, Álvaro Morata is expected to start, and his ability to find space in the box will be crucial.

In addition, Spain has a strong squad with players like Álex Baena and Perez (Villarreal), who both assist and score regularly in La Liga, as well as García, who plays for Leverkusen and adds depth to the midfield.

Defensively, Spain have been solid throughout the tournament, with the exception of the two goals conceded against the Netherlands in the previous match. The stopper duo of Robin Le Normand and Marc Cucurella have been reliable, while Dani Carvajal provides both defensive stability and offensive support from the back positions.

Netherlands – Defensive play and exploitation of counterattacks

The Netherlands will have to find a balance between defending well and exploiting the transition. With Jorrel Hato suspended, Ronald Koeman will have to make changes in the defensive line, likely by putting Matthijs de Ligt alongside Virgil van Dijk. Tijjani Reijnders, who scored in the home game, also has an important role in midfield.

Despite Ható's absence, the Netherlands will likely field a squad similar to the one they used in the home match.

In midfield, Frenkie de Jong will be the key player – both to control the game and set up the attacks. Xavi Simons and Tijjani Reijnders can contribute offensively, but will also have to work hard defensively to prevent Spain from completely dominating.

The Netherlands returns home empty-handed

We imagine that Spain will come out on top and take early control of the game. An early goal for Spain will force the Netherlands to open up more, which could make them vulnerable. Spain can exploit this at all levels. And therefore we end up with the following bets;

UEFA Nations League at 20:45: Spain – Netherlands: Spain wins (1.73)