Spain – France 05-06-2025

The stage is set for one of the truly big international matches of the year when Spain and France meet in the semi-finals of the Nations League at the MHPArena in Stuttgart. With world stars on both sides and a historic rivalry as a backdrop, the stage is set for a match where everything is at stake. This is not just a semi-final, it is a test of strength before the real grand final.

Spain – Generational change, but is the team mature enough?

There has been a small renaissance in Spanish national football since Luis de la Fuente took over as coach. Under his leadership, Spain have excelled; they beat Croatia on penalties in 2023 to win the Nations League, and a year later they lifted the European Championship trophy after an impressive tournament in which they won all seven of their matches. They were effective in attack and rock-solid in defence – 14 goals and only four conceded on the way to gold. Spain have been virtually unbeatable over the past year and are now on a 28-match unbeaten run in official competitions.

Luis de la Fuente has revived the old powerhouse, but also opened the door for a generational change. Lamine Yamal (17) has not only established himself in the national team, he has also become a feared weapon on the right wing – for both club and country. Together with Nico Williams on the opposite side, Spain has gained a speed and x-factor that has been missing in recent years.

Spain's midfield has gained a new dynamic this spring. Pedri is back in form after a long-term injury and has already shown in both Barcelona and the national team how important he is to bind the team together. With his composure on the ball, overview and ability to turn games under pressure, Pedri is a player who gives Spain that extra creative boost – especially against well-organized teams like France. Together with his clubmate Dani Olmo, who has scored goals almost every time he has played this spring, and the skilled ball distributor Mikel Merino, Spain has the most creative midfield in many years. This makes it easier for them to control the game, but also to resist French passes.
The big question is how much rhythm and balance they are able to create without Rodri, who has often been the anchor both offensively and defensively. He is a player who rarely makes mistakes, who reads the game, and who almost never loses duels. When Rodri was out earlier this season, even Pep Guardiola's City felt more vulnerable and unstable; It was obvious that the world's best possession team would be different without its conductor. The same applies to Spain now. Without Rodri, the team loses the calm, balance and defensive security that have often separated them from their competitors. The midfield becomes more vulnerable to French breaks and changes of pace, and it is precisely in the duel game and the defensive balance that Rodri's absence could be most noticeable when the semi-final is decided.

It is in the stopper position and in the back row that Spain perhaps has the biggest question marks before this semi-final. With a defensive squad consisting of Pedro Porro, Oscar Mingueza, Robin Le Normand, Pau Cubarsí, Dean Huijsen, Alejandro Grimaldo, Marc Cucurella and Dani Vivian, there are many exciting names, but also several who still lack the truly great international experience at this level. Young Pau Cubarsí has ​​been one of the breakthroughs of the season in Barcelona, ​​and Robin Le Normand has been steady in La Liga, but neither of them has stood in a semi-final against an attacking line like the one France can field.

The full-backs – especially Grimaldo and Cucurella – have a lot to offer offensively, but at the same time it can leave a lot of space at the back, especially against French crosses. Mingueza and Porro have speed, but can be exposed one-on-one against players like Dembélé and Mbappé. Dean Huijsen and Dani Vivian provide width and duel strength, but lack experience at this level. In short: Spain has many good ball players from the back, but lack the natural leadership and continuity that has characterized the very best Spanish defenses in the past. Against a French team with enormous speed and brutality up front, this could quickly become decisive for the match.

One man who could really be important for Spain is goalkeeper Unai Simón. The Athletic Club goalkeeper has had one of his best seasons ever in La Liga, and has been directly decisive for the Basques with several spectacular saves. His ability to stand in pressure situations, combined with strong reflexes and confidence in the field, has given Spain that little extra at the back. Unai Simón has become known for being fearless in one-on-one situations, and he has also become more stable with the ball at his feet in the past year. When it comes to important matches, Unai has often been at his very best – and if Spain is to survive a French attack with Mbappé and Dembélé at the forefront, it will be absolutely crucial that the national team's last hope delivers at his highest level this time too.

France – Are they vengeful after the loss in the European Championship semi-final?

France come into this semi-final with a squad that exudes both breadth and world class. On paper, France has one of Europe's most exciting defences, but there are still some uncertainties heading into the semi-final. In goal, Mike Maignan is considered one of the world's very best keepers, and he has made several crucial saves both in Serie A and for the national team. Maignan gives France enormous confidence, especially in big games where the margins can be small.

The defensive line gives Didier Deschamps many options, but also some dilemmas. Ibrahima Konaté and Benjamin Pavard are expected to start centrally, a pair of defenders with both physique, speed and experience from top international football. At left-back, France has Theo Hernandez, who has great offensive qualities and a lot of international experience.

The right-back position is more open with Jules Koundé missing from this formation. Malo Gusto, Benjamin Pavard or maybe even Lucas Hernandez could be the solution here – depending on whether Deschamps wants an offensive or more balanced profile in the match against Spain. Loïc Badé, Lucas Digne, Clément Lenglet and Pierre Kalulu all provide extra width, but none of them have been an obvious first choice in this position. Overall, France has a defensive line that can match anyone, but it is especially on the right side that you will see the most rotation – and perhaps also the weakest point of the match, if Spain manages to isolate their fast wings one on one there.

There is a lot of competition for places in the middle. Aurélien Tchouaméni has become the name to build the team around, while Warren Zaïre-Emery has had a huge breakthrough this season and is already delivering at a sky-high level internationally. Adrien Rabiot and Matteo Guendouzi provide running power and physicality, while Manu Koné contributes drive and pressure on the ball. With this mix, France can choose between possession control or aggressive breaks in the middle.

What makes this midfield particularly exciting is its flexibility. Tchouaméni and Zaïre-Emery can both switch between lying deep and making runs in the box, and Rabiot is often the one to stretch the team vertically when needed. The lack of experienced names like Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kanté has meant that the younger players have been given more responsibility, and so far they have responded with authority. The interplay between the midfield and both the defence and attack is key to France's success - especially in games where they are pressed back. If this trio can control the rhythm against Spain's technical midfield, it could open up quick transitions and shorten the road to the final.

It is in attack that France can really swing this semi-final in their favour, with a breadth and explosiveness that few other national teams can match. Kylian Mbappé is the star and the team's big x-factor, a player who always attracts extra attention and can decide matches almost single-handedly. With his extreme pace, precise finishing and ability to create chances from nothing, he is a constant source of anxiety for any defence.

Alongside Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé comes in as an equal nightmare for the opposition. Dembélé has been in great form all spring, and with his dribbling skills, unpredictability and speed, he gives France an extra dimension, especially when he is given space to challenge one-on-one. The combination of these two allows France to strike both in established attacks and in lightning-fast transitions.

Behind them, Deschamps has a number of exciting options: Randal Kolo Muani, Marcus Thuram and Michael Olise provide depth and variety, while youngsters Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué and Rayan Cherki can be used both centrally and on the wings if needed. With so many attacking lines to play from, there is every reason to believe that France will threaten Spain both from the back and via direct play through the wings. This is an attack full of creativity, pace and finishing power – and perhaps the most feared front line of the tournament.

Who will make their mark on the giant meeting – and which games can we trust?

When two of Europe's most offensive and talented national teams meet, it's natural that the goal games are highlighted as the most relevant. The recent meetings have mostly been both even and goal-rich: Spain won 2-1 in the semi-finals of the European Championship in 2024, while France achieved the same result in the final of the Nations League in 2021. These are two teams with enormous attacking power – Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise and Thuram on one side, Yamal, Williams and Olmo on the other – but also with defenses that do not always appear invincible, especially on counterattacks and set pieces.

The market has initially had a tendency to underplay, which often happens in semi-finals with a lot at stake. However, the recent head-to-head matches and both teams' attacking approach mean that the value is leaning towards goals. With so much individual quality in attack, and especially with key defensive players like Rodri out for Spain and Koundé out for France, it is likely that both teams will create big chances.
Everything points to one thing;

UEFA Nations League at 21:00: Spain – France: Both teams to score – Yes (1.92)

Alternative bets:

UEFA Nations League at 21:00: Spain – France: Over 2.5 goals (2.21)

UEFA Nations League at 21:00: Spain – France: Spain win + both teams score (5.40)

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